Forecast May 27, 2016
Trading forex news for today:
02.30 MSK. Japan: Consumer price index for April (the previous value of -0.1% y / y; the forecast -0.3% y / y).
15.30 MSK. USA: Change in GDP for the quarter for the 2nd quarter (the previous value of 0.5% q / q, the forecast of 0.8% q / q).
20.15 MSK. US: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech.
Forex. Forecast EUR / USD EUR / USD today 05/27/2016
Players on the euro in tandem with the greenback in the first half of trading on svyazt with the absence of important macroeconomic statistics should pay attention to the debt market.
The yield on 10-year government bonds in Germany is growing in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investment in European assets. In this regard, before the opening of trading in the US can be expected to moderate growth of quotations. Why moderate? Because since the beginning of this month, the euro is rising quite sluggish, and falls fast and hard - a consequence of expectations of a possible increase of US Fed. In the afternoon, we are interested in the report on US GDP for Q1. This will be the second estimate, and the market expects the revision index in the direction of growth to 0.8% q / q. Leading indicators (PMI ISM manufacturing and service sectors, as well as personal consumption expenditure) indicate that today we can see the data at the level of 0.7-0.8% q / q. Services felt weak in the first quarter, namely, the sector accounts for the lion's share of GDP. However, the first estimate was too pessimistic (0.5% q / q), and today it is possible to expect the review in the direction of improvement. In my opinion, the best data the consensus today we do not see. This is evidenced by Fed officials, who spoke during the month. According to the leaders of growth of monetary control in the first quarter it was weak, but this is a temporary phenomenon. You can not ignore the performance of the head FOMC Janet Yellen at Harvard University. Macroeconomic data, which was published in May, quite positive and investors will wait for hints of a rate hike. In my opinion, Janet Yellen would not speak clearly on this issue and say that the monetary regulator is ready to take this step, but we need to wait on the labor market data in early June.
Recommendations for the euro dollar: Today, traders should sell the pair Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.1215 / 1.1240 and target at the level of 1.1125.
Forex. Forecast pound dollar pair GBP / USD today 05/27/2017
Two reasons for traders to sell Sell British today.
First , yesterday the National Statistics Office published a negative release on Q1 GDP. The indicator has been revised downwards by 0.1% to 2% y / y. It should also be noted quarterly decline in investment by 0.4% y / y for the first time since 2013. Companies have sharply reduced investment in the investment in anticipation of a recession or stagnation of the economy. The United States on the other hand, market participants have pleased a strong report on orders for durable goods. In April the index rose by 3.4% m / m and the recorded growth of 6.48% since the beginning of this year. As noted earlier, today we can expect the revision of the US GDP data for the first quarter in the direction of increasing against the background of a low base of the preliminary report. Thus, we have observed multidirectional dynamics, which on the side of the US dollar.
Second , credit markets also sent a bearish signal. The yield on 10-Feeds UK government bonds is reduced in relation to their counterparts from the US and Germany. The pound sterling since the beginning of this week has strengthened against the dollar and the euro by 1% and 1.2%, respectively, and since today is the last trading day of the week, we can expect profit-taking on long positions and reduce prices.
Recommendations for pound: Today, market participants should sell the pair GBP / USD Sell on growth kkursa to levels 1.4670 / 1.4700 and closed at 1.4580 profit.
Forex. Forecast the dollar yen pair USD / JPY today 27/05/2016
Traders on the dollar with the Americans in the first half today, forex trading will pay attention to details
Inflation in Japan in April. This figure is a key for the Bank of Japan and therefore closely monitored by market participants. CPI index today may come out slightly better than the consensus forecast.
Firstly, the growth of average earnings and the reduction of unemployment in March is a positive factor for inflation.
Secondly, the price of gasoline in the country of the rising sun jumped 8.7% in April, which also contributes to inflationary pressure. However, the decline in household spending can not be expected to yield strong data today. You can say it is a little better on the index forecasts the median.
In Asia, players have two reasons to wait a moderate decrease in quotations, but this factor should be used to build up long positions for two reasons.
First , on the eve of the president of the Dallas Fed acted Robert Kaplan, who said about the need for early tightening of monetary policy in the United States. This is the third member of the Fed's leadership, which this month in favor of raising interest rates. Investors are now adjusted to the fact that the rate could be raised at the meeting on 27 July.
Second , the commodity market there is a decrease in quotations of basic raw material assets, which traditionally contributes to the demand for the dollar as commodity costs are denominated in US currency.
Recommendations for the dollar against the yen: Today, traders should buy the pair USD / JPY Buy on dips to levels of 109.50 / 109.20 and 110.50 at Target.
Analyst « FreshForex »