Forex Forecast November 21, 2016, EUR / USD
The main event for traders today:
19.30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech.
Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast EUR / USD today 21/11/2016
In forex trading today, the currency pair EUR / USD likely to show a correction to Friday's high (1.0612), due to the lack of news, where is open Sell position.
It should identify several reasons for the decrease in EUR / USD
The first reason - strong growth in the dollar index. Greenbacks in the foreign exchange market trading stronger against major competitors, and the USDX is trading at maximum since January 2003. And the last two weeks of trading grew by 3%.
The second reason - the dynamics of the credit markets. The yield on German 10-year government bonds is reduced with respect to the English and American, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the Old World. It is important to note that the spread between the German and American securities stably keeps smiling above the level of 2%.
Reason Three - a weak release of the balance of payments euro-zone in September. The surplus declined by 13.9% yoy, which is the minimum level for the last 6 months.
EUR / USD recommendation : Sell 1,0615 / 1,0645 with the aim of take profit 1,0565.
Forex. The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 21/11/2016
Players on the Briton in tandem with the US currency awaits a mixed background. The yield on 10-year British government bonds in the credit markets reduced the German and American, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the assets of Albion. However, traders are actively buying dollarna amid expectations of increasing the discount rate the US Federal Reserve on 14 December. Futures on the FED rate shows the 96% probability increase to the December meeting, this is the maximum in the current year. On Friday, November 18 Chapter St. Louis Fed James Bullard stated its readiness to support the increase in interest rates on 14 December.Investors buy the dollar not because the US economy is strong, but because they have no alternative. The Fed is the only central bank of the G-7, who may raise interest rates this year. The same trend was observed in 2015 and then, the dollar was the clear favorite of the foreign exchange market. History repeats itself again.
GBP / USD recommendation: The players should give the side trade in the range 1,2300-1,2400.
Foreks.Valyutnaya pair Dollar Yen USD / JPY forecast for today 21/11/2016
American and Japanese stock market of the last two trading weeks ended steady growth of quotations, and after such a trend, the first trading day of the new five-day week, usually a rollback down. In this context, reducing "risk appetite" will have a negative impact on a pair USD / JPY. The dynamics of the debt market also points to the development of a downward correction after the rapid growth in the last week: the yield differential of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds on Friday fell 2 bp Correction when the presence of a strong trend is the always positive development in the market, because it gives us, the traders, the possibility to enter the market at attractive levels.
USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 110,45 / 110,00 with a view to take profit 110,90.
Aleksandr Goryachev Company Analyst FreshForex