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Main » 2016 » September » 21 » Forex forecast for today 21/09/2016: Forex - Judgement Day!
Forex forecast for today 21/09/2016: Forex - Judgement Day!



Forex. Weather forecast on September 21, 2016

Events to which you should pay attention today:


06.00 MSK. Japan Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan in September (the previous value of -0.10%, -0.10% forecast).

21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate (the previous value of <0.50%, the forecast <0.50%).


Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast EUR / USD today 21/09/2016


Today the foreign exchange market investors appear throughout the euro waiting lateral trade



In the morning, expect a moderate decline in the pair amid growing "appetite for risk", after the publication of the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan. In my opinion, today the Japanese monetary control will be forced to further stimulate the economy, against the background of very low inflation expectations. If we look at the history of the last three years, when the Bank of Japan introduced new incentives, the risk assets enjoyed steady demand.Sometimes the demand is observed only in the short term, sometimes he remained in the medium term. In any case, risky assets have been supported in this regard, as the euro in the past two years has been funding currency in carry trade operations can be expected to decrease in quotations of the main currency pairs. In the afternoon, all the attention of investors will be focused on the FOMC decision on the basic interest rate Given the sluggish dynamics of the market short-term treasury bonds can be expected that the regulator will not make any changes now. However, it will be interesting to look at the statements D. Yellen. In my opinion, the head of the Federal Reserve indicates that current figures on employment and inflation is not enough to raise interest rates, but the Fed can raise the rate until the end of the year. How do you respond couple? I think we will see first upward movement of 50-100 n., And then move down and return to their former positions.


EUR / USD advice for investors: the euro Tryderov paired with bucks now awaits flat is in the range 1,1100-1,1200.



Forex. currency pair Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 21/09/2016


Investors pound today should expect moderate growth of quotations on profit taking on short positions. Why investors will take profits, as the downward trend is gaining momentum? In my opinion, there are two reasons for this. Firstly, the credit markets the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is increasing in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investments in British assets. Secondly, published on the eve of the release of the American Petroleum Institute pleased traders positive data. According to API crude oil inventories fell by 7.49 million. Barrels, which allows the calculation of the output of positive data tonight from US Department of Energy that will support the black gold and also have a positive impact on quotations pound. 


GBP / USD advice for investors: Players on the pound to the dollar today worth buying a pair GBP / USD quotes at the drop of the Buy to 1.2960 / 1.2925 and take profit at the level of 1.3050.




Forex. Currency pair yen dollar forecast USD / JPY on 21/09/2016


Today is a key for the pair since their will announce the results of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. In my opinion, the first regulator today will go to the new measures to stimulate the economy: a lower interest rate or increase the asset purchase program, or do both. Why the Bank of Japan today can go to such measures. Firstly, inflation is in the negative area, and in the case of oil prices for Brent to $ 40 / barrel in the short term in the past four months - the economy goes even further into a deflationary spiral, as energy is an important component of inflation.Second, a strong yen could have a strong negative impact on Japanese exporters. This is clearly confirms the industrial PMI index from Markit, who for the last five months is below the key area of ​​50%. As noted earlier, under the curtain of the day the US Federal Reserve will release its decision on interest rates, where there is a high probability that any changes we see. This factor will put pressure on the dollar in the short term. 


USD / JPY advice for investors: Today, traders should buy the pair USD / JPY quotes at reducing the Buy to 101.80 / 101.50 and take profit at the level of 102.50.





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»

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