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Main » 2016 » April » 20 » Forex forecast for today 20/04/2016: The growth of EUR / USD in the short term
Forex forecast for today 20/04/2016: The growth of EUR / USD in the short term

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 20/04/2016

The euro has shown a steady upward trend in the foreign exchange market trading on Tuesday. Having started with a mark of 1.1300, trading in Europe to close at 1.1380.



Fast growing euro quotations analysts attributed the weakening greenback against a basket of major currencies.During the day, the US dollar index (DXY) «dipped" by 35 points.


Another factor that influenced the growth of quotations of the euro - the excellent performance of the German index of economic expectations ZEW. The survey, conducted among 275-year-institutional investors in Germany, showed upbeat assessment of the German business of their six-month outlook. As a result - increase in euro eighty points from the previous day.

In the North Atlantic market, on the contrary - is dominated by the pessimistic assessment of the accuracy and timeliness of changes in the Fed's monetary policy, as well as short-term US economic outlook generally.

As a result, we are seeing a slight decline in the US market share and sustainable reduction in the US dollar.

The forecast of the euro against the dollar today 20.04.2016 will be based on two key events. First of all, it is a further weakening of the dollar, which could lead to the strengthening of the pair formed the Rising trend.In this case, after a corrective reversal at around 1.1380 euros will go to the powerful resistance line, formed last month at 1.1410. Perhaps optimistic traders, opening the deal to buy the pair at this somewhat dry up - in this scenario, we can see the development of the euro at 1.1395 and possibly 1.1380 again.

The second event, which will bring about changes in the pair of quotes - the publication in the US residential construction volume figures at 14:00 GMT. This figure is an important indicator of economic "health" of the American economy, because it shows indirectly and changes in the employment of professionals in the market, and sales contractors, and the willingness of the population to pay for the proposed housing. According to analysts, we expect slightly worse performance than it was a month ago. In this case, the strengthening euro is able to continue its upward movement to the index of 1.1420, and further up to 1.1438.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 04/20/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

A powerful start with the beginning of the week the pound was due, above all, a weakening US dollar. Taking off for two days more than 270 points, the pound was not stopped continuing in the business press around the world discussions of possible losses or gains as a result of Britain's possible exit from the Eurozone.

Having examined carefully the April schedule, we find that today the pound is at a distance of fifty points from month high - a key resistance level at 1.4455.

We can assume that we are waiting for the second month attempt to overcome this barrier in the near future.In this case, not excluded the British currency continued to rise to levels 1.4470 - 1.4520. But, apparently, from this last mark possible powerful corrective reversal down.

Technical analysis of the movement of the pair  pound / dollar  US indicates continued in the medium term the downward sloping trend. Pyatidesyatidnevnaya trend line, the pair quotes guide down, now located at 1.4240.

Corrective reversal of quotations pound down during the European trading session may be temporarily suspended publication of the index of average wages of Great Britain.

Pound Dollar Forecast for today: Today we will see whether the positive results of the latest UK statistics reports only a temporary phenomenon, or do they suggest a general improvement in the UK economy. If, as predicted, we will see the growth of the average salary over the last three months, more than two percent, quotes on the chart is consolidating around 1.4318 mark.

However, the optimistic figures of economic indicators can not compensate for the loss of the pound sterling investor confidence amid growing uncertainty caused by the possible withdrawal of Britain from the European Union.

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Forex. Gold price forecast for today 20/04/2016

XAU \ USD, 4:00.

Gold prices on Tuesday showed a steady upward trend. The scale of the recent changes in precious metal prices of $ 25 per troy ounce a day has become a commonplace.

Pyatidesyatidnevnaya moving average has become the basis for determining the nature of trading. Powerful start of the line at around $ 1233 consolidation ended in a narrow corridor, bounded from above quotation of $ 1256. Gold prices are at a local maximum ($ 1272 per ounce), we have not observed since mid-March this year.

Our forecast for today is based on the assumption that the upward movement zolotabudet continued.

Against the background of the general recovery in the commodity markets, the precious metal continues to perform highly liquid, and at the same time volatile asset, attracting the interests of investors and traders.

Apparently, at the turn of 1255 $ merchants will regroup positions in anticipation of the opening of the North American session.

If the script yesterday repeated, then with the opening of trading we expect the next stage of US dollar weakness. This will lead, is expected to further rise in prices.

It is possible that in the afternoon we will see an attempt to assault the turn of $ 1256 per troy ounce. The retreat of the US dollar, similar in character and depth of yesterday, paving the way for the next resistance level. At around $ 1262 gold will be able to repeat the record of this month, and the passage of this barrier will open the way to the local price peak with the value of $ 1272.

Forex. Forecast Silver today 20.04.2016

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

Silver, as usual, following its more expensive flagship gold. But it demonstrates a potent growth. Since the beginning of the month the metal has risen in price by more than seven percent. Apparently, the reason for this growth - some invaluable silver in the last period.

Coming to the level of $ 17.08 per ounce, quotes, coming close to the turn of $ 17.18, the last time we saw the prices here in June 2015 year.

The main question that we must answer, predicting trade this metal today - as far as "overheated" the asset?

In our view, the US dollar weakened leaves some room for price increases and silver.

In general, today's upward movement will not be as expected as pronounced. In its role as the growth leader, with the beginning of the week on Wednesday, the upward trend will slow down somewhat, leveling the average of the past few days by its companion gold. Leaving far behind their trend lines, silver prices have set their sights on the resistance level at $ 17.50.

The signal for the opening of transactions on purchase of metal to profit on this indicator can be successfully overcome intermediate boundary resistance at $ 17.18.

However, it is possible that the price of $ 17.18 per ounce would be the maximum that can be reached silver for the current trading day.

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Forex. news

On the economic calendar, media attention will cause a significant market for the UK labor market report, including: the number of applications for unemployment benefits; the dynamics of job seekers; the unemployment rate in the country (the previous figure - 5.1%); change in the number of employees; changes in the average wage level and the weekly wage.

Of no less interest will also cause the publication in Germany of the March index of producer prices.

Japan will present the general and adjusted (seasonally adjusted) balance of foreign trade in goods in March, including changes in exports and imports of goods, as well as changes in the volume of orders for equipment.

Australia is to publish the March index of leading economic indicators.

China to unveil the March index of leading indicators.

Canada will report on the changes in February wholesale trade.

In the US, statistics will be published index of mortgage lending in April, the volume of home sales in the secondary real estate market data and gasoline inventories, crude oil and distillate from the Department of Energy.

On the same day, a statement by the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi.

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