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Main » 2016 » May » 19 » Forex forecast for today 19/05/2016: The dynamics of the pound on the eve of the referendum determines the results of surveys!
Forex forecast for today 19/05/2016: The dynamics of the pound on the eve of the referendum determines the results of surveys!



Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today

After consumer prices in the US have shown maximum growth in April, more than three years, confirming thereby the sustainable strengthening of inflation, to support the US economy and Fed officials have decided. Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, San Francisco and Dallas said that June might be a good month to raise the basic interest rate, if the published economic statistics remain positive.



Moreover, in their comments, they confirmed the possibility of two or even three rate increases this year. As a result, strong data on inflation and harsh comments from Fed resurgence in the markets hope for a June rate hike, which was previously almost extinct. Published at the end of trading protocol last Fed meeting really confirmed the likelihood of this. Almost all participants in the meeting agreed that the labor market conditions are favorable; Financial markets also continued to recover after falling earlier in the year. The majority of members of the Committee believe that the further stabilization of the labor market, the dollar and oil prices make it possible to rely on inflation to the planned target level of 2%, in connection with which the federal funds rate could be increased in June. Against this positive backdrop, the dollar rose sharply, forcing the course of the single European currency in yesterday's trading to test the 8-week low at around 1.1214. An additional driver of euro's decline was a slowdown in core inflation in the euro area to the lowest level since April 2015.This is extremely disappointing investors who believe that the region returned to deflation, with which extra-soft policy of the ECB to cope can not.


Ollar euro exchange rate today assume - the continuation of the downward movement of the pair to target levels: 1.12; 1.1150; 1.1128 and possibly lower towards the key support level of 1.11. Here, near the recent price levels we expect a reversal of the course of the single European currency for the upward movement of the key resistance levels - 1.12 and 1.13.

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Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 19/05/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Positive results of a public opinion poll in the UK, which showed another decline in the number of those who support the country's exit from the European Union (now - 37% against 40% previously) allowed "bulls" to maintain demand for the British currency and continue the upward momentum couples. A positive factor for the pound became also reassuring report on the labor market, which showed a decrease in the number of unemployed, employment growth and increased average earnings over the previous period. Against this background, the pair resumed its growth rate, and the minimum of the Asian level 1.4402, after passing on the rise more than 230 points, tested the new 3-week high at around 1.4633, which is close and ended the session.


Pound Dollar today assume - the continuation of the corrective pullback couples and reducing the British currency to the target levels: 1.4541; 1.4512; 1.45 and 1.4472. If we can overcome this last level, we expect a further decline in the pound to the key support level - 1.44.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold to date 19/05/2016

XAU \ USD, 4:00.

Gold futures closed on Wednesday with a significant reduction, collapses after the publication of the April meeting of the Federal Reserve of the Protocol to the minimum 3-week level of $ 1254.90 per troy ounce.Investors are now convinced that, if the economic data for the United States will be stable, the Fed will raise interest rates in June, which will lead to a sharp appreciation of the dollar and will be a significant negative for the next gold prospects. However, even against this backdrop, the market still remain factors that could support prices for precious metals. These include the June referendum on the release of the UK from the European Union and the upcoming US presidential elections. In addition, the largest investors prefer today to keep a portion of their assets in gold. It was learned that billionaire George Soros has joined the customers of metal.private equity asset management company the world's largest «BlackRock» also invested through its subsidiaries, more than 1 billion. dollars in a specialized exchange-traded fund in gold «SPDR Gold Trust», thus becoming the largest investor in the fund, which currently balance moment contains 27.5 million ounces of gold.These positive factors for gold will be crucial in the next trading sessions, during which the metal will have a significant pressure.

As of this morning near significant resistance for gold goes through significant price level - $ 1265 per ounce.The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes: - 1268 $; $ 1272 and $ 1277 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of the previous local minimum - $ 1254.90 per ounce. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels: $ 1251; $ 1248 and $ 1242 per troy ounce.

Gold forecast for today propose - continue to reduce the metal to the above targeted levels of support.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Thursday - the focus of the British market will be data on changes in the volume of retail trade; Weekly data from the US in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Considerable attention will cause investors to also report on the labor market in Australia, including the level of unemployment in the country (the previous figure - 5.7%); change in the number of employees and the proportion of the economically active population.

Of no less interest it will also cause a report of the European Central Bank on the results of the April meeting of the monetary policy; balance of payments current account balance and the ECB changes the March volume of construction in the euro area.

Among other indicators - New Zealand is to publish an indicator of consumer confidence for May and the April index of the number of vacancies for employment. Japan to unveil the March index of business activity in all sectors of the economy, as well as the dynamics of the volume of orders for machinery and equipment in March and April. Canada will report on the changes in the March wholesale volume. And statistics from the US will be published - the index of economic activity from the Federal Reserve of Chicago and the April index of leading indicators. Today, the performances by the vice-president of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley and member of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England Gertjan Vlige.

For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "" under "Research".

We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!



Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.


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