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Main » 2016 » May » 18 » Forex forecast for today 18/05/2016: Trading - EUR / USD - the sale, GBP / USD - good reasons to sell!
Forex forecast for today 18/05/2016: Trading - EUR / USD - the sale, GBP / USD - good reasons to sell!



Forecast for May 18, 2016, EUR / USD

Forex news traders today:

02.50 MSK. United Kingdom: Change in GDP for the 1st quarter (previous value of -0.3% q / q, the forecast of 0.1% q / q).

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Unemployment rate for March (the previous value of 5.1%, forecast 5.1%).

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Changes in the level of average earnings for March (the previous value of 1.8% 3m / y, forecast 1.7% 3m / y).

17:30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in May (the previous value -3,410M; -3,167M forecast).

21.00 MSK. US: Publication of minutes of the Fed.

Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar EUR / USD on 05.18.2016

Euro in the forex trading is the second day of trading to the Americans in a tight range 1.1301 -1.1348 and probably in the near future we will see a strong outing from this consolidation.


It is logical to have the players in the euro raises the question: where will the euro? Probably worth waiting for the depreciation of euro and Sell to increase sales by increasing prices to the area of ​​the upper limit of the defined range. In America Release of inflation yesterday, which contributed to the expansion of the differential rates of the two largest economies. In the first four months of this year, inflation in the US rose by 0.3% versus declines of 0.01% in the euro area. In the credit markets, the yield spread of US government bonds and Germany expands the past two trading days, which increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets. 


EURO / USD trading recommendations for today : a player is selling a pair Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.1330 / 1.1365 and profit at 1.1230.


EURO / USD trading recommendations for today


Forex. Forecast exchange rate pair pound dollar GBP / USD today 18/05/2016

Traders on the pair GBP / USD is to sell the pair for two reasons:

First , weak data on inflation in April The United Kingdom disappointed the market participants, which contributed to the decrease in the yield of government bonds of England in relation to their German and American. Negative inflation data, in turn, does not allow to count on a yield of positive labor market data for March, which will be released in the middle of trading in Europe. Between the CPI and unemployment there is a strong inverse correlation.

The second , of Brent traded near the psychological level of $ 50 / barrel, from where traders probably worth waiting for fixing deals on long positions, this will support the quotes greenbacks. 

GBP / USD trading recommendations for today : Players on the pound against the US dollar at the auction is to sell the pair GBP / USD Sell the growth of quotations to the levels of 1.4470 / 1.4510 and a target at 1.4370.

 GBP / USD trading recommendations for today


Forex. The forecast of the dollar / yen USD / JPY on 05/18/2016

The main event today for the players on the dollar with the yen, this report on Japan's GDP in the first quarter, which will be released in the first half of trading. Leading indicators point to a negative output of the release.Firstly, the PMI index of the manufacturing sector and the service sector in the first three months showed a negative trend, and these indicators are closely correlated with GDP.

Second, the decline in household spending was again recorded in the first quarter, and this figure is the rod of economic growth of Japan. Today, most likely we will see the data worse than the consensus forecast, which will put pressure on the Japanese yen. Investors are well aware that, given the strengthening of the yen at the beginning of the current year, in the second quarter we will see the weak GDP data. In this regard, market participants can quickly sell its assets and go to the US dollar, which on the eve of the positive macroeconomic data was published. However, strong growth of the American policy today is not worth betting - major US stock indicators finished Tuesday in the "red zone", this can cause a decrease in "risk appetite", and this factor, in turn, will constrain the fall of the yen as a funding currency.


USD / JPY Trading recommendations for today : Traders on the dollar with the yen today in forex trading is to buy a pair Buy on decline of quotations to 108.85 / 108.50 and 109.50 at Target.

USD / JPY Trading recommendations for today

Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »



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