Forex forecast for today 17.12.2015: FOMC raised rates!
Forex. Forecast of the euro against the US dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 12/17/2015
Pending the outcome of the Fed meeting on interest rates, the euro / dollar held in a very narrow sideways. Bidders have been cautious and, as it turned out, for good reason. Immediately after the FOMC decision to raise rates (for the first time since 2008), the dollar rose across the entire spectrum of the currency market. Moreover, trade has been rather chaotic, as investors tried to understand what kind of information would be the main driver of movements in exchange rates.
In its decision, the Fed has set the federal funds rate in a range of 0.25% - 0.50%, raising it from the ground up, and plan further dynamics rate target range 1.375% - by the end of 2016, 2.375% - for two years and 3.25% - the end of 2018. Ultimately, Yellen statement that "stronger economic growth and higher inflation could accelerate further increase in interest rates" allowed them to choose the most correct strategy - following of the yield differential. Thereafter, the market started to aggressive buying of the US currency, the rate of which reached the end of the day the price level of 1.0896.
However, we do not expect a significant change in the price trend for this pair. Most likely, the decline in the euro in these conditions only will correct its previous rise, and then quotes the currency back to continue the upward movement.
Today, the euro dollar forecast: assume a continuation of decrease in pair in the following price levels: 1.0875, 1.0830 and 1.0815. If this level is broken, then the decline will continue to the key support level of 1.08 or below.
If the sample does not take place, then the pair will unfold on an upward movement to the previous high 1.1010 and 1.1060.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 12/17/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
Yesterday's report on the work did not become positive for the British currency and allowed the "bulls" on the pound change pricing dynamics. The number of unemployed in the UK (on applications for unemployment benefits) increased, while the average earnings over the past three months has slowed down again, noting thus fall in the rate of growth of wages. This has had a significant pressure on the pair, as the Bank of England leaders have repeatedly stressed that they would like to see income growth before will consider raising interest rates. The pair continued against this background that the previous decline, reaching at the end of trading the minimum level at around 1.4956 and ending with the realization of the goals of graphic reversal pattern "head and shoulders", hour timeframe.
Today the pound dollar exchange rate in the forecast of the anticipated completion of the previous decline near the key support level of 1.49. Then we expect the turn and lift the pair to the next target levels: 1.4980, 1.50, 1.5020, 1.5141 and up to the 233-day moving average of -1.5090 (hour timeframe).
Forex. Forecast the price of gold today 12/17/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Waiting for the Fed rate at yesterday's auction resulted in an increase in demand for precious metals, resulting in the February gold rose in price by $ 16.97 to $ 1078.13 level per ounce. However, immediately after the US Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate increase in more than 8 years, prices have fallen to the level of 1060.66 $ an ounce, as it became known that the most active buyers of gold exchange-traded funds liquidated their positions on the back of higher rates. This greatly increased the anxiety of investors, however, increase the size of the long priced in the metal, as well as repeatedly mentioned at the press conference, Janet Yellen leitmotif of the gradual further increase rates - all calmed players. Which allowed the "bulls" to return to the zone highs. At the end of trading prices began to be corrected and completed the US session in the middle of the day's range on the price level of $ 1069.37 an ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of weekly reversal 1074.21 $ an ounce.
The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following objectives - $ 1077, $ 1080 and $ 1085 per ounce.
Immediate support for the gold price level is located at $ 1067 per ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels to $ 1063, $ 1059 and $ 1050 per troy ounce.
Gold rate for today in the forecast suggests an attempt to test on reducing the lower limit of the downward channel $ 1050 per ounce, and then followed by the resumption of growth in the value of the metal to the above target levels of resistance.
We do not exclude the resumption of recovery of metal from the 55-day moving average of $ 1065.60 per ounce.
Forex. Silver Forecast for today 12/17/2015
XAG / USD, 4:00.
Silver in yesterday's trading followed the dynamics of gold and by the time of announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting has managed to grow by 54 cents an ounce to a new week high of $ 14.31. A minor volatility in the course of the press conference, Ms. Yellen hardly changed the situation, maintaining the position of the metal at the achieved level.
Thus, on the day the March silver fixed the value of the metal on the price level, $ 14.16 per ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver goes through $ 14.25 price level per ounce.
If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - followed by a continuation of the recovery target levels of $ 14.30, $ 14.40 and $ 14.60.
Immediate support for the silver is located on line 233-day moving average of $ 14 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - the decline will continue to target levels of $ 13.95, $ 13.80 and below the previous local minimum of $ 13.60 per troy ounce.
Silver today in the forecast forward to the completion of the current decline in the price of the metal zone 14 $ ÷ 13.80 $, and then turn and increase the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.
The news block on Thursday the focus of investors will be the October report of the Institute for Economic Research in Munich, under the terms of the business environment, assess the current situation and economic expectations in Germany.
Considerable interest will be published in the New Zealand GDP growth data for the third quarter, the November changes in the volume of retail trade in the UK, as well as weekly US data the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and the manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed.
Other very important indicators will be events such as the publication of the UK balance of industrial orders according to the CBI; Economic Bulletin of the European Central Bank in December and the balance of the current account balance of payments of the United States for the third quarter of this year.
Reserve Bank of Australia will publish a report on monetary policy for the 4th quarter.
Japan introduced the October data volume of foreign investment in the economy and the amount of capital invested abroad; general and adjusted (seasonally adjusted) balance of foreign trade in goods; changes in the volume of exports and imports of goods.
A euro zone will release the October changes in the volume of construction and the level of labor costs for the third quarter of this year.
For more information on the movement of currencies in the market, please visit "Maximarkets.ru" under "Research".
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