Forex. Weather forecast on October 17, 2016
The main event today:
12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for September (the previous value of 0.4% y / y; the forecast of 0.4% y / y).
16.15 MSK. US: Industrial Production for September (the previous value of -0.4% m / m forecast 0.3% m / m).
Currency pair EUR USD forecast for today EUR / USD 17.10.2016
At present, formed a mixed background. On the one hand, Friday's economic data from the US indicates the increase in inflation expectations, allowing the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
Janet Yellen said on October 14 that the monetary authorities can go on raising interest rates sooner than that expected by the market (14 December), as soft policy pursued for too long, can have side effects. I think that the head of the FOMC November disingenuous regarding changes in accounting policies, as this event can cause turbulence in the stock market, and it is disadvantageous to both US presidential candidates. Republicans and Democrats need to come to the electorate in a positive mood to the polls, because 2/3 of households have assets in securities, the decline in the stock market will reduce their incomes. On the bond market the yield spread on 10-year German government bonds and US expands, which can cause corrective gains euro quotations. However, given the strong downtrend in the pair, this growth may be slight and short-term and in this regard, there is no sense to open longs. Selling is still early, and there is no buy signals.
EUR / USD recommendation : euro Investors today with greenbacks worth the wait side trade in the range 1.0940 -1.1020.
The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 17/10/2016
dollar basket index USDX last trading week closed at seven-month high, with the pace of growth accelerated week from 1.32% to 1.48%. Against this background, we can expect the strengthening of the American currency in the short term, as a basic market rule of thumb is that the trend is likely to continue on, rather than change its direction.However, today in the morning you can expect a corrective movement up on the background of positive dynamics in the credit markets. The yield on 10-year UK government bonds is increasing in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which increases the attractiveness of investments in British assets and thus have a positive impact on the cost of the British currency. In the afternoon, you can expect a decrease in quotations on the background of a pair of moderately positive US data on industrial production for September. index of business activity in the manufacturing of ISM in September showed an increase of 2.1% compared to August, indicating an increase in output.
GBP / USD recommendation: Trading the pound to the dollar today is worth waiting for the flat within the range 1.2150 -1.2250.
Currency pair yen dollar forecast USD / JPY today 10/17/2016
Two reasons for players to buy USD / JPY
In this currency pair last three trading weeks there is an upward trend and the reduction of quotations to be used to build longs to Target 104.65. "Risk appetite" in the world remains the same: this is indicated by the growth of quotations of the world's leading stock market on Friday, as well as reducing the fear index VIX.
The first reason - it is the demand for risky assets, which is traditionally negative for the yen as a funding currency. If investors are actively increasing their positions in carry trade, the Japanese currency is under pressure.
The second reason , the credit market yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds expanded, which increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets.
USD / JPY recommendations: Players forex dollar against the yen is worth buying a pair Buy's reduction of quotations to 104.00 / 103.65 and take profit at the level of 104.65.
Author: Aleksandr Goryachev analyst FreshForex