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Main » 2016 » March » 17 » Forex forecast for today 17/03/2016: The Fed cut the discount rate annual forecast! Dollar in a knockout!
Forex forecast for today 17/03/2016: The Fed cut the discount rate annual forecast! Dollar in a knockout!

Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today

The results of the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee began to blow for the "bulls" on the US currency. Previously, some investors are still talking about the possibility of lowering the forecast in terms of policy tightening to four rate increases this year to three, the forecast change, implying only two of its increase, it turned out to be a surprise for the majority of trade.



US Federal Reserve on the results of yesterday's meeting kept its benchmark interest rate in the range of 0.25 - 0.5% per annum, but in general the standard rate for 2016 was downgraded to 0.9% instead of the planned at the December meeting of 1.4%. In addition, it was downgraded forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for 2016 and 2017.


After the announcement of the decision the US currency has weakened substantially against all major competitors, and the pair exchange rate  euro / dollar is  against this background that easily overcame the resistance of the "bears" on the key levels of 1.11 and 1.12, fixing a new 4-week high at 1.1242 price level.

Eurodollar today suggest corrective pullback in the pair price zone 1.1173 ÷ 1.1136. Further forward to resuming recovery of the single European currency to the target levels of 1.1242, 1.1277, 1.13 and above, to the price level of 1.1332.

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Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

At yesterday's auction rate  GBP / USD  resumed its decline after the publication of the previous poll, according to which the majority of Britons (53%) can vote for the country's exit from the EU structure.

Another negative factor for the pound was the annual budget message to the UK Government, which had been sharply reduced forecasts for economic growth for the current and subsequent years. According to finance minister George Osborne's growth rate of the economy will grow in 2016 by 2% against the previous estimate of 2.4%. In 2017 the growth dynamics will also be negative - 2.2% versus 2.5% previously.

Against this background, the pair tested the course on reducing new 2-week low 1.4051, then abruptly changed price movements and began to grow.

Driver initial rise was the publication in Britain of positive economic statistics on the labor market, according to which the unemployment rate remained unchanged (5.1%), while the number of people claiming benefits fell for the sixth consecutive month to the lowest level since April 1975.

The weakening of the dollar after the announcement of the Fed meeting has further strengthened the British currency growth rate which at the end of trading the price tested the level of 1.4272, and which closed the trading session on Wednesday.

Pound Dollar today assume a corrective pullback from the previous pair rise and decline of the British currency in a price zone 1.42 ÷ 1.4167. Then we expect a reversal in the pair to rise to the target level 1.4272, 1.43, 1.4360 and up to the key resistance level of 1.44.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold today

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.

On the eve of Fed meeting investors in the precious metals market was sharply reduced trading activity and started to close the deal on the sale of gold. An additional argument for the termination of gold sales was the significant weakening of the US currency after the release of US economic statistics showed a decline in retail sales (for the second month in a row) and the February producer price index.

As a result, Asian and European session on Wednesday held the metal in a very narrow sideways range.

Price dynamics of metal changed the publication of the Fed's decision on maintaining the same standard interest rate and press conference, Janet Yellen, in which it reported a decrease in the forecast of the general interest rate increase from 1.4% to 0.9%, providing only two rate increases instead of 4 planned earlier. Against this background, pressure on the dollar further strengthened, which allowed the "bulls" in gold sharply step up purchases of metal and raise its value at $ 37.30 to the price level of $ 1263.63 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes on the price level of $ 1265 per ounce.

The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes - 1268 $, 1272 $ and 1277 $ per ounce.

Immediate support for gold is located at $ 1257 weekly reversal ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1253, $ 1250, $ 1247 and below.

Our forecast for Thursday expect a downward correction of the metal and the reduction in the value of gold price zone $ 1,250 ÷ $ 1 238 per ounce, and then a new rise of quotations to the above target levels of resistance.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver today

XAG / USD, for 4 hours.

Silver in yesterday's trading most of the day also demonstrated stability, balancing the price level around $ 15.25 per ounce. However, the rapid growth of the gold and the weakening of the dollar after the announcement of the Fed's decision provoked a sharp increase in demand for the metal, which rate soared to a price level of $ 15.64 per troy ounce, and finished yesterday's trading at the achieved level.

As of this morning near term resistance for silver goes through the 233-day moving average of $ 15.70 per ounce.

If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the rise will continue to target levels of $ 15.80, $ 15.95 and $ 16.10 per ounce.

Immediate support for the silver is located at the level of daily and weekly reversal of $ 15.47 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 15.35, $ ​​15.25, $ 15.05 per ounce and below.

In our forecast on silver metal also suggest corrective decline in the price zone 15.47 $ ÷ 15.25 $ per ounce, and then increase the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.

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Forex. news


The economic calendar Thursday in the center of market attention will be the Bank of England decision on the basic interest rate, as well as a summary of the Monetary Policy. The changes are not expected, standard rates will remain at the same level - 0.5%. The same day, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will publish the results of the vote on the basic interest rate and the planned volume of purchases of assets, which is likely to remain unchanged at 375 billion. Pounds.

It attracts considerable interest the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland interest rate Libor, the target level of 3-month interest rate and the boundaries of its range of variation in this period. In addition, will assess the monetary policy of the Bank, published an economic forecast for the 2 nd quarter of this year, as well as the index of import prices and producer prices for February.

Other very important indicators will be Thursday US weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits; changes in GDP for the 4th quarter in New Zealand; February data Australian labor market, including: the level of unemployment (previous rate - 6%), changes in the number of employees and the proportion of the economically active population. There is also a report of the Reserve Bank of Australia for the 1st quarter.

A Eurozone will release the February consumer price indices, foreign trade balance in January and the January changes in the volume of construction. In addition, a meeting of the European Council and the statement by the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi.

Japan will present the March data volume of foreign investments in the country and the amount of capital invested abroad; general and adjusted (seasonally adjusted) balance of foreign trade in February and February changes in the volume of exports and imports of goods.

Canada will report on changes in the January wholesale trade.

And in the US, there are such factors as: the balance of current account balance of payments for the 4th quarter; the level of vacancies and labor turnover; February index of leading economic indicators.

Today will be held on the speech of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda.

For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "" under "Research".

We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!

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