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Main » 2015 » December » 16 » Forex forecast for today 16.12.2015: FOMC - Waiting for US interest rate increase!
Forex forecast for today 16.12.2015: FOMC - Waiting for US interest rate increase!

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 12/16/2015

On the foreign exchange market yesterday, the unit value of the euro currency to the American behaved fundamentally differently in trading in Asia and Europe. During the trading session in the Asia-Pacific region the pair showed growth, which led to the fixing of the maximum value over the past two months 1.1058.



Although the peak achieved European traders interpreted as a turning point, and thus the best price for profit and open short positions. As a consequence, with the opening of trading in the euro area, the euro began to fall rapidly. Published macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone countries had relatively little effect on what is happening in the market and only the achievement of the level of 1.1010 stopped briefly and sellers caused the correction. Unexpected was the reaction of the players forex exit ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany, significantly better than expected. Despite the rise in the index as compared with previous data and with expectations to reach the maximum correction 1.1036, the exchange rate could not be fixed and the aggressive mood sale euro returned to the market. By the opening of trading in the US was already overcome the support level of 1.0980 and is included in trade US traders supported the mood of his European colleagues.The decline below 1.0930 allowed to fix at least a week's 1.0900. This level has been estimated as sufficient to lock in profits on short positions, triggering a correction to the value of 1.0930. Trading Session 16 December promises to be dynamic, to be facilitated by the publication of a number of macroeconomic news. At 11:30 Moscow time will index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector in Germany.Since data from the largest economy of the European Union, as a rule, have a significant impact on the euro is likely that the value of the index above expectations will support the exchange rate and allow to grow to around 1.0980. Next will come the consumer price index of the Eurozone, which is expected by most analysts, will remain unchanged. From this we can conclude that any deviation from the forecast will have a significant impact on the change in value of the euro and potentially send a course as to the support level 1.0900 and the resistance 1.1000.

Today, the euro against the dollar in the forecast: Further dynamics will be determined by news from overseas, the most important of which, of course, will be the FOMC decision on interest rates. On the back of this news release not worth the attention of a more distant levels of resistance - 1.1050 and 1.1120 and the support level at around 1.0800, 1.0730 and 1.0550.

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Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 12/16/2015

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

The dynamics of the sterling to the greenback during yesterday's trading fundamentally different in Asian, European and American exchanges. Trading session in Asia and the Pacific was held with the traditional minimum volatility marked the first decline in the level of 1.5145, followed by a gradual increase to 1.5175.With the opening of the European trading session the volatility has increased, but remained relatively low - rate movements have been limited to a corridor Mezhuyev values ​​of 1.5130 and 1.5175. Posted CPI is fully consistent with the forecast and the previous value and could not provoke investors to take decisive action. The principal changes in the market situation have made market participants from the American continent. Sharp update session high, at the start of trading, reaching the level of 1.5183 and was replaced by an equally rapid decline, which is not an obstacle to become support levels 1.5135 i1.5100. A sufficient level of profit for most traders considered 1.5030, which began not very active correction. Thus, in less than two hours the British Pound lost over 150 points without substantial assistance from the fundamental data.


Pound dollar today in the forecast: The dynamics of the currency pair  pound  at auction December 16 promises to be high. At 12:30 Moscow time will be published on the UK labor market, namely, the average wage level, changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and the unemployment rate.Since the values ​​of the indicators listed above are expected to better than the previous, rightly or surpassed expectations could trigger a correction to resistance level 1.5100. Further developments will be dependent on the US news and the supply and demand for the US dollar. At 16:30 will be published the number of building permits issued in the United States, which could weaken the dollar in the lead in the further growth course and achieve the level of 1.5135. The main event of the US trading session will be a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee US Federal Reserve followed by a statement and press conference Janet Yellen.

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Forex. Forecast the price of gold today 12/16/2015

XAU / USD, 4:00.

The cost of an ounce of gold during yesterday's trading session showed relatively high volatilnoct without the express vector. During Asian trading price gradually declined, accelerated sharply at the opening of trading in Europe - it has led to a session low rate of $ 1059. However, this level of demand for the precious metal has risen sharply, which allowed for an hour per day to achieve the maximum level of $ 1068.5 per ounce.Dynamics of the course for the rest of the trades in the Old World and the entire US trading session was marked values ​​limited. Alternately successive short-term cycles of growth and decline have allowed traders to make good money on a predictable market.


The price of gold today in the forecast: to maintain the existing price corridor for trading in Europe and the possibility of withdrawing from it under the influence of the news from the United States and, therefore, supply and demand for the US dollar. His influence on the dynamics and will, in fact, opening up the market and the data on the state of the property market and the refinancing rate. Some analysts, in anticipation of changes in interest rates, which have little doubt, begin to talk about what a major event on December 16 will not value bet, and, in the context of the current of confidence and, to a certain extent otrabotanom events Statement of the Committee on Open Market prospects for further increases. We should not overlook the opportunity to an unlikely turn of events - the Fed's decision to leave the refinancing rate unchanged conditions. In this case, we will see the highest dynamics of the fall of the US dollar, and consequently the growth of an ounce of gold prices to a benchmark of resistance $ 1078, $ 1088, $ 1097 and $ 1100.


When implementing a more likely scenario - increasing the discount rate by 25 percentage points, gold will continue the downward trend. Support levels, limiting decline, become a mark of $ 1054 and $ 1045 dollars per ounce.


Silver on the trading session on December 15 demonstrated minimal dynamics, slightly adjusted in the medium-term downtrend after reaching another record low of $ 13.65 per ounce. Correction and low volatility indicate that the majority of market participants are preparing for the news from the US trading session on December 16.


Silver today in the forecast: Thus, trading in Europe is likely to be held with relatively low dynamics and movement within a narrow price band of limited value $ 13.65 and $ 13.85. The trigger for a way out of this range, most likely, will be the decision of FOMC. In the unlikely but possible scenario, we will see the decline of the US dollar, and consequently, the increase in the price of silver ounces to the levels of resistance $ 14.00, $ 14.20 and $ 14.50. If the decision of the committee will meet everyone's expectations - will continue downward trend will be broken through the support level of $ 13.65 would open the possibility of further decline to the psychologically important level - $ 13 per ounce of silver.


Forex. Silver Forecast for today 12/16/2015

XAG / USD, 4:00.

Forex. news

On the economic calendar, the environment at the center of attention of bidders would be the decision of the Committee on open market the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) of the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. Standard rates are likely to be upgraded to the level of 0.5%. In addition, the economic outlook will be published and a press conference Chairman of the Board of Governors US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen.

Other very important indicators of the euro area will be published in the December index of business activity for the manufacturing and services sectors. The same indicators and composite indexes, including the combined data from both sectors, will be published in Germany and France.

Considerable interest will also report on the British labor market, including: the number of applications for unemployment benefits; the dynamics of job seekers; the unemployment rate in the country (the previous figure - 5.3%); change in the number of employees, as well as changes in the level of average earnings and weekly wages. Among other economic news - Australia will publish a semi-annual economic and financial forecasts, as well as the index of leading economic indicators. New Zealand will report on the result of current account Balance of Payments for the 3rd quarter. Japan is to publish changes in the volume of orders for equipment in November. The euro zone will release November consumer price index and trade balance for October. Canada and the US will present the volume of transactions with foreign securities and the amount of long-term purchases of US securities by foreign investors. And in the US will be published - changes in the volume of industrial production and the volume of the processing industry in November; November volume of building permits issued and the number of bookmarks of new foundations for housing construction; index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for December, as well as data on stocks of gasoline, crude oil and distillate - from the US Department of Energy.




Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to customers to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material traders in developing their own forecasts. The company assumes no liability in any form, for any losses or other damages customers, direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of forecasts, presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.


Daily forex market forecasts from MaxiMarkets

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