Results of the last trading day:
Against the background of the cross of the euro / pound and oil prices of Brent EUR / USD recovered to 1.1203. Cross reached its highest level since 2013. Oil has exceeded the level of 48 dollars per barrel.
Expectations for today:
Weak retail sales data in the United States questioned the prospects of Fed rate increase in the near future. In this regard, the focus of market participants are minutes of the meeting by the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, which will be released on Wednesday.
Euro / dollar in Asia is growing. But judging by the hour indicator I have no confidence that the in-session rally will continue with the same force and customers calmly pass the level of 1.12. I forecast for Tuesday consider the strengthening of the euro during the second half of the day. I believe that the euro need to start the rally from the line lb - 1.1171.
News of the day:
At 11:30 MSK UK is to publish an index of consumer prices, as well as indexes of purchasing and selling prices of producers for July.
At 12:00 MSK Germany - ZEW economic sentiment index for August. Eurozone - ZEW economic sentiment index for August, the trade balance for June.
At 15:30 MSK Canada - manufacturing sales for June. US - The number of building permits in July, the consumer price index for July, the start of construction in July.
At 16:15 MSK United States - Industrial production for July .
Intraday Forecast: minimum - 1.1170, maximum - 1.1220, closing - 1.1208.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView
Due to the cross-rate EUR / GBP EUR / USD rate returned to the level of 1.12. The upward movement from 1.1046 is wave formation difficult, so difficult to choose a pricing model for the current day.
AO indicator should return to zero line Stochastic Oscillator - 20% in the shopping area. Then on the line Lb can be taken to overcome the acceleration level of 1.12. Although not necessary to pass the level of 1.12, and 1.1233 and 1.1270. After the rise of the euro above designated levels evrobyki aim at 1.1425.