Forecast June 16, 2016
Top Stories for today:
06.00 MSK. Japan Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan in June (the previous value of -0.10%, -0.10% forecast).
11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade, taking into account the cost of fuel for April (the previous value of 1.3% m / m forecast 0.3% m / m).
14.00 MSK. United Kingdom: The decision on the basic interest rate of the Bank of England in June (the previous value of 0.50%; 0.50% forecast).
15.30 MSK. US: Consumer Price Index for May (the previous value of 1.1% y / y; the forecast of 1.1% y / y).
Forex forecast euro dollar EUR / USD as of today June 16, 2016
That took the main event of the week and it's time to take stock. The results clearly ambiguous.
First , the US Federal Reserve left the leadership of the median forecast for a discount rate at the level of 0.875% in 2016, ie, throughout the year can be two rate hikes. Is it good or bad?
The market is taken into account in March and is now waiting for a negative reaction to this event was not worth it. Second, it was lowered GDP forecast from 2.2% to 2%. This is a negative signal for the US currency and the local stock market. Thirdly, it was stated by the acceleration of growth after the recession in the first quarter, and an increase in wages. Fourth, the FED raised its inflation forecast for this year from 1.2% to 1.4%.This factor is a positive for the dollar. Finally, D. Yellen, in a press conference, said that the UK release of the risk of ES It was one of the factors determining the decision not to raise interest rates. However, the Fed chief added that the Committee can easily respond to the unexpected acceleration of inflation and raise the stakes!Now the fun part. The release of the inflation we expect today, in the afternoon. Income growth contributes to an increase in consumer spending (a report on retail sales) that, given the 8.7% rise in gasoline prices indicates an increase in CPI index. Positive inflation data will make the market to recall yesterday's rhetoric D.Yellen.Thus, the first half of the day is better not to trade and just focus on inflation data, which will be published at 15.30 MSK.
EUR / USD recommendation today: Traders in the euro dollar today in the first half of trading on the forex market is a pair of EUR / USD on the Sell to the levels of 1.1280 / 1.1320 and goals at the level of 1.1200.
Forex forecast for the pound dollar GBP / USD as of today June 16, 2016
Sterling in yesterday's trading demonstirovat tried force, but the short-term growth of quotations players rather should be used to build positions on Sale Sell for three reasons.
First , data on retail sales obviously can not please investors investors against the backdrop of "high base" beginning of the year. In the first four months of indicator Retail Sales rose by 2.6%, against growth of 0.79% a year earlier. Indicator Consumer Confidence Gfk in May was in the negative area, which also points to the output data worse than the consensus forecast.
Second , since the last meeting of the Bank of England's yield 2-year government bonds, which is closely correlated with the discount rate, decreased by 5 basis points, which does not rely on the positive rhetoric of the monetary authorities. Britain's output of ES risks increase with each passing day, and the Bank of England will once again talk about the looming threat in the form of a strong economy recession.
Third , quotes black gold fell more than 2%, it is traditionally a bearish signal for the pair GBP / USD.
GBP / USD Recommendations: Players forex pound with greenbacks today at auction is to sell the pair GBP / USD on the Sell price increases in the area of 1.4220 / 1.4250 and 1.4090 on the Target.
Forex rate forecast for the dollar, the yen USD / JPY today 16/06/2016
The trading week rich in meetings of the central banks. Early in the morning on the results of its monetary policy the Bank of Japan will announce. Bank Chairman Mr. Kuroda said last month that should not be expected from the monetary authorities of new stimulus measures, since it takes time to had the effect of easing in January. Investors also expect new measures by the monetary authorities: yield 2- year government bonds, though located near the lowest level this year (-0.28%), but this level is not updated before the meeting. In my opinion, now the Bank of Japan will continue to take a wait and see attitude, and in the case of risks of gain (if Brexit implemented in practice), can go to the new measures. Brexit will cause a new wave of sales of risky assets and the strong appreciation of the yen, which is undesirable for the Bank of Japan. So it is now up to the end not yasnya situation in the referendum on June 23 that the monetary authorities will not be in a hurry, too.The US stock market reacted negatively to the eve of the meeting of the US FSS that signals a demand for the yen as a safe asset in the morning. However, as was noted earlier, today it is possible to expect positive inflation data in the US that will support the US currency. Given the fact that the pair is in the minimum level of the current year - sell dangerous but also to fly until early.
USD / JPY recommendations: Forex traders today USD / JPY pair is worth waiting lateral trade in the range of 105.00 -106.40.
Analyst « FreshForex »