Forecast June 15, 2016
The main events forex today:
11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: The unemployment rate in April (the previous value of 5.1%, forecast 5.1%).
11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the average wage level in April (the previous value of 2.0% 3m / y, forecast 1.7% 3m / y).
16.15 MSK. US: Industrial Production for May (the previous value of 0.7% m / m forecast 0.2% m / m).
17:30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in June (the previous value -3,226M; -2,268M forecast).
21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate in June (the previous value of <0.50%, the forecast <0.50%).
Forex forecast for the euro against the dollar EUR / USD today 06/15/2016
Today the main event players on the euro will be an American solution to the Fed discount rate.
Dynamics of yield 2- year US Treasury bonds, which is closely correlated with the FED interest rates, points to the fact that today we do not see the tightening of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, investors' attention will be focused on economic review and comments on the future increase of the discount rate. Published on the eve of the US release of retail sales for May can count today on a moderately positive outlook from the FOMC.In the first five months of this year retail sales "control group", which is closely correlated with the index of consumer expenditure (PCE), increased by 1.91%, against an increase of 1.4% a year earlier. PCE, in turn, is a core indicator for the US economy.
Fed Chairman D. Yellen, speaking last week, said that the expected acceleration of growth in consumer spending in the coming months. In the first quarter of this year, retail sales declined by 0.69% q / q, while the first two months of the second quarter, the figure rose by 1.8% q / q. As we can see, the Fed chief did not deceive us and therefore, we can expect today a positive assessment of the medium-term prospects for the US economy.It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the debt market: the yield on 10-year government bonds in Germany for the first time in the history of the left in the negative region and now we can expect withdrawal of capital into other assets. This factor, in turn, will also put additional pressure on the single European currency.
EUR / USD recommendation: Players forex for EUR / USD, today at auction is to sell a couple Sell on rise in prices to the levels of 1.1210 / 1.1250 and a target at 1.1125.
Forex forecast for the pound dollar GBP / USD today 15/06/2016
Three reasons for forex traders for selling GBP / USD:
First , yesterday's inflation data in the UK for May disappointed investors. Indicator CPI came out worse than market expectations, which indicates that today we do not see a strong labor market data, since the labor market and inflation have a strong correlation. After the publication of data on inflation in the credit markets, the yield on 10-Feeds UK government bonds began to decline in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in British assets.
Second , as noted earlier, the US Federal Reserve can today publish a moderately positive economic survey that will support demand for the dollar.
Third , reports oilfield services company Baker Hughes in the last two weeks indicate the increase in the number of drilling in the US oil installations in the 12 units that signals the growth of production volume. In this regard, today's release of the US Department of Energy on crude oil stockpiles can get worse than the consensus forecast, which will put pressure on the quotes as the "black gold", and the cost of the British currency.
GBP / USD recommendation: Today the pair pound dollar players should sell the pound Sell on the growth of quotations to 1.4125 / 1.4170 and 1.4010 on the Target.
Forex rate forecast for the dollar, the yen USD / JPY today 15/06/2016
Fear index S & P 500 VIX eve again demonstrated growth on the UK release of the fear ES Tuesday published two surveys, both indicated the growing number of supporters Brexit. Investors sold off riskier assets again and went into safe assets. In this regard, in the first half of the day should be expected to strengthen the Japanese yen as a funding currency in the carry trade №1 operations. As noted earlier, the US Federal Reserve today can expect a moderately positive outlook, which in turn will support the US dollar and we will see the growth of quotations of the pair USD / JPY.
USD / JPY recommendations: Investor for USD / JPY today in the first half of trading is to sell a couple Sell on the growth of quotations to the levels of 106.30 / 106.65 and 105.85 profitomna mark.
Analyst « FreshForex »