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Main » 2016 » April » 14 » Forex forecast for today 15/04/2016: Trader - USDJPY two reasons to sell
Forex forecast for today 15/04/2016: Trader - USDJPY two reasons to sell

 Forex news traders today:

  • 05.00 MSK. China: Changing the volume of real GDP for the 1st quarter (previous value of 6.8% y / y; the forecast of 6.7% y / y).
  • 16.15 MSK. US: Industrial Production for March (the previous value of -0.50% m / m forecast -0.10% m / m).
  • 17:00 MSK. US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for April (the previous value of 91.0, forecast 92.3).

Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar EUR / USD 15.04.2016

In the first half of the day the main event will be the publication released by China's GDP for the first quarter.Leading indicators PMI manufacturing and service sectors suggest that we should expect a decrease in economic growth. Both indicators showed a negative trend in the first quarter.



You can not ignore the strong decline in foreign direct investment. The only positive element - it's trade surplus, which in the first quarter of 2016 rose by 1.63% y / y. Moderately negative data from China will help reduce the "risk appetite", which had a positive impact on the value of the euro as a funding currency. Next, you should pay attention to the macroeconomic data from the United States. Industrial production for March can get a little better konsesus forecast, against a background of positive dynamics of the ISM manufacturing sector. I recall that at the beginning of the month ISM has reported an increase in business activity in the production sector: PMI index for the first time in 5 months, showed growth above the level of 50%. The report on consumer spending from the University of Michigan in my opinion, will not be able to please the traders data better than expected median. Despite the increase in employment and an increase in income naseleniya- Americans start to save more than spend, and this factor indicates a decline in consumer confidence. In the credit markets, the yield on 10-year government bonds in Germany is growing in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investment in European assets. 


Trading recommendations for the euro against the dollar on 04/15/2016 Traders should buy the pair Buy on lowering prices to levels 1.1250 / 1.1220 and a target at 1.1325.


Trading recommendations for the euro against the dollar on 04/15/2016


Forex forecast the pound to dollar GBP / USD today 15/04/2016

On Friday it formed a mixed background for the British currency. On the one hand, published on the eve of release of negative inflation in the US in March can cheer bulls for opening long positions. CPI in the United States has not demonstrated accelerated growth that does not leave FOMC choice but to once again talk about the need to delay the tightening of monetary policy. It is worth noting that yesterday's report does not indicate that the FED will generally not raise rates this year. By contrast, the indicator  Core CPI  for five consecutive months is above the level of 2% in annual terms, and monetary authorities do not leave it unattended.However, until the middle of June, you can forget about the increase in the Fed discount rate conversations. On the other hand, today we can expect a moderate decline of quotations of oil has traditionally puts pressure on the pound. As noted earlier, according to China's GDP report could disappoint investors, which in turn will contribute to profit-taking on long positions in the energy market. 


Trading recommendations for the pound dollar pair today : Players should not expect trade in a sideways channel 1.4110 -1.4240.

 Trading recommendations for pound dollar pair today


Forex forecast the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 04/15/2016

The dollar, the yen, traders are two reasons for the sale.

Firstly, published this week, reports from the US retail sales,  the PPI  and CPI data disappointed investors weak. Against this background, the US and Japan Differential government bond yields began to decline, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in US assets. The only positive report, which was published four days of the trading week - a reduction in the primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits. Releases on Unemployment Claims signal that we can see the strong employment data on the first Friday of May.However, the market will not currently pay attention to it as to the labor market report for another three weeks.

Second, against the backdrop of moderately negative macroeconomic statistics from China traders may begin to take profits on the "risky assets" before the weekend. Reducing the "risk appetite" traditionally contributes to strengthening of the yen, as it №1 funding currency in carry trade operations. It's not worth talking about large-scale sales of risky assets, and capital flight to safe assets - be careful in this regard, are talking about a correction. 

Trading recommendations for the dollar yen pair : Players on the dollar with the yen today is selling a pair Sell to increase the levels of 109.50 / 109.90 and target at 108.50.

 Trading recommendations for the dollar yen pair


Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »


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