Forecast June 14, 2016
Forex News Today:
11:30 MSK. UK: Consumer price index for May (the previous value of 0.3% y / y; the forecast of 0.4% y / y).
15.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for May (the previous value of 1.3% m / m forecast 0.4% m / m).
Forex forecast euro dollar EUR / USD today 06/14/2016
Two reasons for traders to wait for a company of EUR USD?:
First , in the credit markets, the yield on 10-year German government bonds rising in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investment in European assets.
Second , the sale of shares in the world markets, which we have seen in the past two trading days, have a positive impact on the euro as a funding currency. In the afternoon, the course of trading will be determined by macroeconomic statistics from the US. You can also expect to release positive data. Consumer activity index shows a positive trend that indicates an increase in spending. Chairman of the US Federal Reserve D. Yellen, speaking last week, also noted that the expected acceleration of spending on private consumption in the coming months. The second quarter is traditionally strong in the US economy today, in my opinion, you can expect the best release of the data the consensus forecast, which will cause a decrease in quotations pair EUR / USD in the US trading session.
EUR / USD recommendation : Players forex euro, stoitzhdat growth in the first half of trading Buy on decline to 1.1275 / 1.1250 and target at the level of 1.1330.
Forex forecast for the pound dollar GBP / USD today 14/06/2016
Today, the main event for the traders to the British release of the inflation in the UK. First, consider that can cause inflation. Firstly, the price of gasoline in the United Kingdom at the end of May increased by 1.89% m / m. Secondly, there is the growth of the average wage, which is also an indicator of inflation. In March, the index increased by 1.21% m / m. The highest growth was noted in salaries of highly qualified specialists. In front of nizkokvalifitsirovanyh experts recorded a slight decrease in average earnings. However, there are negative factors. Firstly despite the positive dynamics of the labor market consumer confidence index last two months is in the negative area. Perhaps influenced by uncertainty about the referendum, which will take place next week. Secondly, the rate of return - on 10-year UK government bonds, which reflects investors' expectations of inflation, fell by 0.17%, which does not rely on the yield of strong data on the results of May.Thirdly, in the first half of last year it was recorded "high base" CPI indicator and today's consensus forecast of 0.4% y / y output assumes inflation to the highest level in the past year and a half. Taking into account, the above factors, the chances of such an outcome are small. In this regard, today we can see the output data within a range of 0.3% -0.4%, which will not support the British currency. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the commodity market. Reducing the "risk appetite" of investors can cause a new wave of sales in the oil market that traditionally puts pressure on the pound.
GBPUSD recommendations : traders should sell the pair Sell on growth Kursaal area 1.4255 / 1.4300 and take profit at the level of 1.4140.
Forex forecast the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 06/14/2016
In the first half of the players on the USD / JPY pair is to increase short positions on short-term rise in prices.The driver for the strengthening of the Japanese yen - reducing the "risk appetite" of investors. On the eve of the fear index S & P 500 VIX rose 16.5%, to a maximum of the last three months. Over the past four trading days, this indicator increased by 45.7%. What does this mean? Investors are in a hurry to close long positions and go into safe assets. As one of the reasons for the elimination of the "Long" in the global stock markets can be identified uncertainty about the referendum in the UK, which is scheduled for June 23. As noted earlier, in the afternoon we can expect positive data on US retail sales for May, which may cause the strengthening of the US dollar and upward rollback prices.
USD / JPY Recommendations : Players should sell the pair USD / JPY on the growth of quotations of the Sell to 106.30 / 106.65 and profit at the level of 105.65.
Analyst « FreshForex »