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Main » 2016 » December » 13 » Forex forecast for today 13/12/2016: The dollar - the reasons for the fall, no!
Forex forecast for today 13/12/2016: The dollar - the reasons for the fall, no!


Forex forecast for today 13/12/2016: The dollar - the reasons for the fall, no!
The main events for today:

12:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Consumer Price Index for November (the previous value of 0.9% y / y; the forecast of 1.1% y / y).

13.00 MSK. Germany: Consumer Sentiment Index in the business environment from the ZEW Institute in December (the previous value of 13.8, forecast 14.2).

Forex forecast the currency pair euro dollar (EUR / USD) today 12/13/2016

Players forex euro in tandem with the greenback in the first half of trading is necessary to pay attention to the report on the ZEW institute business climate in Germany in December. 



 If the release will come out worse than expected median, it is probably a strong decline in the euro quotes as necessary to wait for the sales to cross-rate EUR / GBP Amid the positive report on inflation at Albion. The release of better than the consensus forecast in the short term is likely to support the euro. However, this increase, investors should use to build Sell positions. Now there is no reason for the fall of greenbacks. On the debt market yesterday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has set a fresh peak for the last 26 months at the level of 2.52%. The Fed may raise interest rates on Wednesday, which will cause a new wave of growth in profitability.Market participants are already lining up for the debt securities of the US Treasury: on Monday there was an auction of 10-year securities and oversubscribed 2.39 times. On vulgar auction this figure was at 2.22 times. Thus, increase of yield on the bonds will contribute to an increase in demand, which will positively impact on the US currency.

EUR / USD recommendation: Sell 1,0625 / 1,0665 take profit 1,0530.



Forex forecast pair Pound Dollar (GBP / USD) today 13/12/2016

Player sterling paired with bucks in the first half of trading on the forex worth waiting for growth rate dollar pound against the background of positive report on inflation in the UK in November. 

First, the Kingdom of the growth in the labor market: the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, and the average salary increased to 505 pounds per week. 

Second, the price of gasoline increased by 0.94% in November, to a level of 1.13 pounds / liter. 

Third, in England, a steady growth of the money supply, which also points to inflation. You can not ignore the devaluation of sterling: after the June referendum, the British rate fell to 14.8%, it is a signal to the strengthening of inflationary trends. Debt market also confirms the upward trend: the yield on 10-year British government bonds rising to the German and American. In the second half of the session players should not expect profit for Dong and a rollback down due to lower prices for black gold. Perhaps the oil will close the gap on Monday as the market reacted too optimistic on the outcome of Saturday's meeting in Vienna, OPEC +. Initially, investors are expected to reduce production volume of 600 thousand. B / d. - In fact it came to 32 thousand b / d.. less. 

GBP / USD recommendation: Buy 1,2660 / 1,2635 take profit 1,2700.




Forex forecast the currency pair Dollar Yen (USD / JPY) 12.13.2016 Today


At yesterday's auction traders observed a decrease in quotations on the stock indices in Europe and North America. Was this a correction or the beginning of the sales before the meeting of the FOMC? 

Rather, count on the first scenario, since the market is often corrected on Monday after weeks of strong growth. The S & P500 dipped 0.2%, while DJ30 rose by 0.05%. Such dynamics can hardly be called Closeouts. Today, the macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan is not expected in this regard, the course of trading on the stock market and determine the intraday trend on this pair. Looking forward, the continued growth in the stock markets, as investors will seek to drive the markets as high as possible before the Fed's decision on the discount rate. In addition, tomorrow will be published on the release of US retail sales, which can also be a pleasant surprise. 

USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 115,05 / 114,65 take profit 115,65.





Aleksandr Goryachev Company Analyst FreshForex



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