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Main » 2015 » December » 17 » Forex forecast for today 12/17/2015: Yen on the brink!
Forex forecast for today 12/17/2015: Yen on the brink!

Currency market forecast for December 17, 2015, EUR / USD

Forex news traders today:

02.50 MSK. Japan: The total balance of foreign trade in November (the previous value of ¥ 111.5V outlook ¥ -446V).

12.00 MSK. Germany: Business Climate Indicator of the IFO in December (the previous value of 109, the forecast 109.2).

12.30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade taking into account the cost of fuel for November (the previous value of -0.6% m / m forecast 0.6% m / m).

16.30 MSK. US balance of payments current account balance for the 3rd quarter (previous value 109.7B; Forecast -123.0B).



The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD forecast for 12/17/2015


So, for the first time since 2006 at yesterday's meeting of the FED interest rates. Long-term projections of GDP and unemployment is moderately revised in a positive direction, with the inflation rate, on the contrary, we revised moderately in the negative direction. "Economic conditions are likely to be evidence in favor of only a gradual increase in key interest rates," - noted in the final communique. Thus, FOMC, will continue to be guided only by the strong macroeconomic statistics when making decisions to change monetary policy. This is logical, as low prices for hydrocarbons have put downward pressures of inflation and downside risks to the economy of China remain. Today, at today's trading in Europe, there are data for December institute IFO business climate in Germany. This indicator is closely correlated with the dynamics of euro area GDP, and closely monitored by economists and investors. Left in the week positive ZEW releases and Markit indicate the growth rate, but the players ignore these statistics, which indicates the presence of a large number of sellers in the euro / dollar.This is not surprising, because today, market participants act out the discrepancy between the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed. Expansion of the differential yields on government bonds of German and American investors leaves no other choice than to build short positions in the Euro-currency. In the second half of trading on the forex traders should pay attention to a report on the US balance of payments in the third quarter.Revaluation greenbacks negative impact on exporters, so that the negative trade balance in the third quarter amounted to 133.7 bln. Dollars, which is 6.21% more than in the same period in 2014. But the growth of return on government bonds contributed to the inflow of capital to the United States, slightly mitigate the negative effect. Today is better to wait for the report of the consensus forecast, which has a positive impact on the value of greenbacks with Franklin. 

Recommendations for the euro / dollar today players in the euro / dollar is to sell the euro Sell on price increases to the levels of 1.1010 / 1.1035 and 1.0890 on the objectives. 

The levels of the euro / dollar today: support levels 1.0915 - 1.0845 and resistance levels: 1.0958 -1.1017.


Recommendations for the euro / dollar


The course of sterling against the dollar today GBP / USD forecast for 12/17/2015


This week the British ignored the mildly positive data on inflation and employment, and today only a strong excess of the median forecast of retail sales for November will support sterling in the first half of trading on the currency market. In England, in November, there is a strong influx of customers in the retail sector, in contrast to the US, where citizens rush to make purchases at attractive discounts. The British are buying Christmas presents in December. The report on average earnings for October showed a slowdown, it is a negative factor for the retail sector. Although employment increased, together with the proceeds of previous periods may support the demand for consumer goods. The consumer confidence index in Albion in November fell to 1 p., Is the minimum level for the last five months. Taking into account the above factors, today is to wait for the data within the consensus forecast with small deviations that are not strongly support the quotes pounds. America is on the contrary, as already mentioned, can please market participants positive data on the balance of payments for the third quarter, it will strengthen demand for the US currency. 

Recommendations for the pair GBP / USD: Today, pound traders paired with greenbacks worth selling British Sell with growth rate to 1.5105 / 1.5135 and 1.5005 at the close of the transaction.

The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5026 - 1.4993 and resistance levels: 1.5052- 1.5101.


Recommendations for the pair GBP / USD


The dollar against the yen today USD / JPY forecast for 12/17/2015

Today, after the Fed's decision on interest rates, it is necessary to wait on the bond market the yield differential expansion of Japanese and US government bonds, which increases the attractiveness of investing in the assets of States and support the demand for "green". Low energy prices tomorrow can make management of the Bank of Japan to revise the inflation forecasts. The US Department of Energy yesterday reported about the increase in crude oil reserves by 4.8 million. Barrels, which again caused a decline in oil prices. Investors understand this and would "lay" a factor in quotes, that depriving yen opportunities to demonstrate corrective movement. In Asia, the players should pay attention to the release of Japan's trade balance for November. Moderate growth rate of the Japanese yen, along with the decline in industrial production shows the output of negative data on net exports. This factor embolden buyers to build up long positions. 

Recommendations for the pair dollar / yen: players forex dollar against the yen is worth buying a pair Buy on dips towards 121.35 / 121.05 and 122.45 at Target. 

The levels of the dollar, the yen today: support levels: 121.37 - 121.07 and resistance levels: 121.84 - 122.22.


Recommendations for the pair dollar / yen


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»


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