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Main » 2016 » September » 11 » Forex forecast for today 12/09/2016: Euro Dollar - Sale!
Forex forecast for today 12/09/2016: Euro Dollar - Sale!



Forex forecast 09.12.2016


Forex forecast pair EUR USD EUR / USD today 12/09/2016


Growth Khurcha euro dollar investors today is to be used to open Sell position. Why is likely the pair at the beginning of the trading day?



The main factor is the influx of capital in currency funding, which, in the past two years, applies to the euro. Reducing the "risk appetite" of investors will contribute to the growth of quotations of European currency, following the example of the US trading session on Friday 9 September. Then the world's leading stock markets showed a strong drop in prices, and the increased demand for the euro. Then the trend izment character, and we will see the strengthening of the US currency. The main driver for the strengthening of the dollar can be called Libor rate increase. The three-month rate Libor - is an indicator of interbank lending and almost every day in the market, there has been a new high. The current level of interest rates is at around 0.852%. Let me remind you that on 16 December 2015, when the Fed raised the discount rate, this rate was at a level of 0.532%. Thus, the spread between the median rate and the FOMC rate of Libor was at 0.157% in December 2015, which implies a cur s median level of interest rates 0.695% FOMC. If the Fed raises the interest rate by 0.25% at one of its next meetings, the middle level will be at around 0.625%. Thus, we can conclude that the FOMC is required to raise interest rates this year and we can not exclude such a scenario, it will be done before the US presidential election. 


Euro Dollar advice for investors: With oday is selling a pair EURUSDN Sell on the growth of quotations to 1.1250 / 1.1280 and take profit at the level of 1.1205.



Forex rate forecast pair pound dollar GBP / USD today 09/12/2016


As the pair pound dollar today a mixed background. On the one hand, the credit market dynamics indicates the growth of positive attitudes in relation to the assets of the British: the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is increasing in relation to their counterparts from the US and Germany. It should be noted that the yield differential of US and UK bonds reached the highest level since August 4. On the other hand, large-scale sales in the market of black gold on Friday (Brent quotations fell by 4.26%) can have a lot of pressure on the pound sterling. The fall in oil prices contributes to the strengthening of the dollar, as the cost of energy is quoted in the US currency. In my opinion, now for the British currency can be expected to implement two scenarios. The first - is the growth of quotations in the region of 1.3479 (high of July 15), and then drop to a new low this year (below 1.2796). The second scenario assumes that growth in the above areas and we will not see price reductions in the area of ​​1.2796 has already begun.Therefore, I expect the fall of the British currency value and chances to upgrade the current year at least the next three months are quite high. Why should it be expected decline in the pound? The thing multidirectional monetary policies of the two central banks: the Bank of England in August lowered interest rates and announced another cut before the end of the year due to Brexit, while the US Federal Reserve is preparing to raise rates, probably all that happens at the December meeting. 


Pound Dollar advice for investors: Today is zhdatfleta within range 1,3210-1,3310.


Forex rate forecast pair USD JPY USD / JPY today 12/09/2016


The dollar yen last two trading day the pair closed higher, while the stock markets have undergone large-scale sales, especially in the United States. This raskorrelyatsiya usually ends strong decrease in quotations of the pair USD / JPY.Repeat if such an outcome this time? In my opinion, the chances of such an outcome are very high. Firstly, the US stock market has demonstrated maximum daily fall since then as Britain announced its withdrawal from the ES Then the world's stock markets were gripped by panic, and now there is no panic, but we see a massive sell-off. Second, the sale occurs across the spectrum of risky assets: stocks, oil, metals, high-yield cross-rates. Thus, we can conclude that investors are scaling down and carry trade will give loans denominated in Japanese currency on. During such periods, the yen as funding currency №1, is in steady demand. 


Dollar Yen advice for investors: Today, traders should sell a couple of dollar Sell Yen the growth of quotations in the area of 102.75 / 103.15 and take profit at the level of 101.90.






Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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