Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today November 26
In forex trading this week, the euro / dollar rose to the level of 1.0670. The foundation of growth were the positive data from the United States a higher economic growth than forecast by experts. Even after the revision of the data, which showed GDP growth of 2.1% during the forecast 2%, a sharp change in the situation did not happen. Then, the pair still lost their positions and updated at least in the area of 1.0580.there has been a rebound of the price upwards.
The euro r dollare all also focused on the upcoming ECB meeting, expected on December 3rd. The markets are still looking for additional signals to the expansion of the leniency program, tracking indicators of macroeconomic processes in the Eurozone.
In the report of the Central Bank on Wednesday the European Union said that under the QE program is planned suspension of purchase of assets from December 22 until the end of the year. This decision was due to the forecast low liquidity of the markets in a given time interval in order to reduce market distortions. The program will resume on Jan. 4, 2016. In addition, to take advantage of favorable market conditions predicted in the beginning of December, the ECB is planning a large-scale purchase of assets in the period from 27 November to 21 December.
In the absence of important statistical information from the European market's attention was focused on US statistics. In America, we published the following statistics: on the orders of durables (0.5% vs. 0.3%), the number of applications for unemployment benefits (260K v. Forecast of 270 thousand.) And new home sales in October (495 thous. vs. 500 thousand.). Due to the tensions observed in geopolitics, and ahead of the US Thanksgiving Day holiday, investors gradually began to close long positions, which led to a marked drop in the dollar.
Today, the euro / dollar in the forecast: Who is the main competitor couple of euro / dollar continues to trade in the Consolidation corridor 1.0580-1.0720, while the market may consider the possibility of expansion of the range to the top level of 1.0860. Such a scenario is viewed more as an alternative to the main developments of our today's forecast implies a decline trend. The next goal - to overcome the 1.0580 mark. The main objective of this wave of decline - a mark 1.0440.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today November 26
Apparently downtrend pound / dollar may be quite serious. The pair dropped below the support 1.5080, and after the publication of data on the retail sales and changes in the Bank of England's target date for achieving the level in 2017 wanting to buy long-term pound sterling left. It is predicted that the expected data on the level of economic growth may increase downtrend pair pound / dollar. However, the weakening of the dollar has led to an increase in foreign exchange instruments in the field of resistance 1.5140.
Pessimistic comments Carney Governor of the Bank and a representative of the IFA Hayldeyna, moving away expectations of higher interest rates in the UK have a lot of pressure on the British pound. The week began with an active reduction of the currency pair GBP / USD, caused by the strengthening of the US currency and the revision of the Bank of England monetary policy. But on Wednesday a couple corrected.
The head of the regulator Mark Carney suggested the relevance today cut interest rates to support the British economy, while previously all inclined to raise interest and launch incentive programs QE. Despite the record low base rate of 0.5%, the Bank of England did not make adjustments in the current value of the interest rate.Moreover, the statements of the head of the Central Bank, it became clear that such a situation can last longer than previously projected deadlines.
I must say that after the extraordinary meeting of the Fed on the discount rate, which ended without any significant changes, the optimism of investors expecting rate hike at the Fed's next meeting on 15-16 December, has fallen markedly. Contrary to the majority of representatives of the federal banks, voted for the increase, it was decided not to make adjustments in the value of interest rates. Janet Yelllen substantiate this position the continuing financial crisis and economic recession.
Pound / dollar today in the forecast: The pair GBP / USD held technical return on testing levels below 1.5140. In today's forecast considering the possibility of breakdown of support 1.05080 and further decline to the level of 1.5020. Then we consider the possibility of rising to the level of 1.5210. Wave reduction is seen as a continuation of the downward trend.
Forex. Forecast the price of gold and silver today, November 26
This week the price of gold and silver came under pressure and a slight strengthening of greenbacks calm in geopolitics. An ounce of gold in the market gave $ 1070.65, while silver traded at $ 14.05 per ounce. Although silver has grown slightly in late trading. The gold and silver ETF-funds investor demand fell markedly, while the other ETF-funds remained more stable. Confidence in the imminent increase in the base rate of participants of market trading has increased significantly after the Fed's extraordinary meeting on November 23.
In anticipation of a tightening of US monetary policy in the bidding for gold significantly increased "bearish" sentiment. In urgent exchanges in Chicago and New York's net open position in gold major participants speculative trading, falling to - 9000, that is almost historic low. The same situation is observed in volume of assets under management, which fell below the level of 1,500 tons.
The growth of gold was associated with the search for quality assets by investors to protect against volatility in currency markets caused by global events. Despite the existing support for the precious metal, economists do not predict a sharp rise in gold, expecting only a temporary slight rise at considerable resistance from above.
First, the price of gold rose to $ 1080.15 per ounce, but later under pressure from the rapid growth of the US currency dropped to its previous level of $ 1070.20. At the level of $ 1065.20 an ounce, gold prices have found support and were able to break short-term resistance level of $ 1075.20. But then returned under this mark.Breaking resistance, quotes will have the opportunity to test the 11th figure.
Gold today in the forecast: we consider the probability of the return of gold in a downtrend. This development will enable the test and the possibility of breaking the current support, resulting in a decrease to $ 1055.40 per ounce.
Silver prices today in the forecast, first rose to $ 14.30 per ounce, and then fell to $ 14.10. However, full-scale growth failed to develop, so today's forecast, we expect the resumption of decline in quotations, and the immediate goal will be to support in the area of $ 13.90 dollars per ounce.
Bidding will begin on Thursday with the publication of the trade balance in New Zealand. Then the Australian Bureau of Statistics will report on private new investments, which are the main indicator of business conditions and could have a significant impact on the Australian dollar. In Europe, will be published by the gross domestic product of Spain and the volume of industrial orders in Switzerland. Toward the end of trading in the Old World, at 15:00 Moscow time, by GfK will publish the index of consumer climate in Germany. In Canada, the statistics will be published corporate earnings, while in the United States will be celebrating Thanksgiving.
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