Foreign Exchange Market Forecast November 20, 2015 EUR / USD
News Today traders on zemetku:
11.00 MSK. Eurozone: ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech.
The euro exchange rate against the dollar today, EUR / USD Forecast 11/20/2015
Today, from Europe and the US release of important macroeconomic statistics is expected. In early trading in London will make the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Most likely, the "Super Mario" will reaffirm the intention of the ECB when the need to change monetary policy, although clear signals currency market players await today from Mr Draghi is not necessary. Already less than two weeks will be a meeting of the ECB, and it is difficult to assume that a decision on the program of incentives has already been made. Perhaps the intrigue persist until the very last minute. A little later will act as other key persons ECB Vitor Constancio and Jens Weidmann. Do not leave without attention and the dynamics of balance of payments in the euro zone - an important macroeconomic indicator. Yesterday, the regulator issued a report in September, and now have a complete picture for the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2015. surplus of 73.4 bn. Euros, which is 7.08% less than in the second quarter, but 10.7% more than in the same period last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 related to the devaluation of the single European currency. It is this factor caused the growth of net exports in the third quarter by 40%. The slowdown of the positive trend in comparison with the second quarter of this year, due to the moderate strengthening of the single European currency against its major counterparts. Thus, by the monetary authorities in the near future we can expect verbal intervention aimed at the continuation of the devaluation of the currency, which will have a positive impact on economic growth of the Old World. On the bond market the yield on 10-year German paper on the eve grew relative to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which will support the demand for the euro. But given the empty macroeconomic calendar today, we should not expect strong movements.
Recommendations traders in the euro / dollar: Today during the trading day players on the euro in tandem with the American side should not expect trading in the range 1.0665 -1.0765.
Euro / dollar levels for today: support levels 1.0712 - 1.0673 and resistance levels: 1.0760 -1.0808.
The course of the sterling / dollar GBP / USD forecast today 11/20/2015
Today, in the absence of important macroeconomic data, bidding for a pair GBP / USD will determine the dynamics of commodity and debt markets. In the credit markets, the yield of the English 10-year government bonds is the fifth day of declines relative to their American counterparts, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the assets of Albion, and make the current levels for the pair GBP / USD GBP / USD profitable to open short positions. Also, a decrease in the yield of British securities relative to German bonds, it can cause profit-taking sales in the cross-rate EUR / GBP, sterling that also carries a downside risk. Commodity market after strong sales stabilized at the strong negative fundamental trend, which indicates the formation position at institutional investors and very soon probably again the continuation of "bearish" trend. Against this background, it is not necessary to rely on the strong growth of quotations of oil and metals, as this rise, speculators will be used to build short positions.
Recommendations for the pair GBP / USD: Today, pound traders paired with a couple of greenbacks worth selling GBPUSD Sell on price increases to 1.5315 / 1.5340 and a target at 1.5215.
Pound / dollar levels for today: support levels: 1.5271 - 1.5206 and resistance levels: 1.5315- 1.5351.
The dollar against the yen USD / JPY forecast today 11/20/2015
Yesterday's appreciation of the yen took place not because of but in spite of. Market participants closed their profit profits on long positions in US dollars, as the US dollar index (USDX) November 17 late in the evening came close to the psychological level of 100.00 (high of the day 99.96.). Fixing the position in the field of psychological levels, financial markets business as usual. After that, the players are always thinking: what to expect next? Continuing the trend or reversal? Probably worth waiting for the development of the first scenario, for two reasons.
First, macroeconomic statistics from the Land of the Rising Sun and US radically opposite, which we get during the autumn. America encouraged speculators positive data on the labor market and consumer spending that has forced to think seriously about the Fed raising interest rates on December 16. Even the factor of revaluation of the dollar has had no significant negative influence. The negative trade balance of the United States for the third quarter amounted to 130.64 bln. Dollars, which is 3.78% higher than in the same period of 2014. The dollar index (USDX) for the period rose by 12.12%, which is quite a lot, if economic growth is unsustainable. Of course, in 2016 even negative tendencies from the revaluation of the dollar, but it will be in the future. Now the serious problems of the strengthening of the US dollar is not experiencing. Conversely, Japan, slipped into technical recession against the background of weak exports.
Secondly, lower oil prices carry the risk of both the United States and Japan, but due to low inflation expectations for Japan are higher. On the commodity exchanges in the last month has increased significantly the number of put options in the first quarter of 2016, indicating that investors expect lower prices for Brent to a minimum level of 2008 ($ 36.20 / bbl). Released on Wednesday, November 18 release of the DOE indicates a high occupancy of oil storage tanks as shale oil remains high, while its export is prohibited. This factor, in turn, will cause a decrease in the yield on 10-year government bonds in Japan, and the differential expansion of the US and Japanese market, respectively, which in turn will increase the inflow of capital into US assets.
Recommendations for the dollar against the yen: Today traders for trades worth buying a pair dollar / yen USDJPY Buy on reducing the price to 122.68 / 122.45 and 123.50 at Target.
Dollar Yen levels for today: support levels: 122.22 - 121.84 and resistance levels: 123.00 - 123.60.