Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 11/20/2015
Since then, in late September, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi outlined a course aimed at the weakening of the euro, local periods of growth of quotations do not affect the confidence of traders in the further decline of the currency position.
Using technical analysis and apart timeframe, we can come to an unexpected conclusion. Today the pair EUR / USD is trading well above its long-term average., Which is located near the 1.0450 mark. Given the mixed monetary policy the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, this currency has a very real chance of further decline. As we approach December, the chances that we will see the quote on the positions not only of 2003 but of 2002, increasing by the day. Psychological and technical support can not falter in December 2015, but in March 2016, when it is expected the second of several successive uplifts the interest rate in the United States.
Based on the foregoing, in the near future, the growth of a strong euro to the level of 1.1000 seems unlikely scenario.
Since the beginning of the European trading session today has demonstrated the usual behavior of the pair. On the eve of the start of trading in the US, the euro managed to break his hundred-day moving average and double turn at around 1.0715, on the outskirts of dvuhsotdnevnoy average for the time schedule.
Perhaps the EU trade balance data for October, released today, have helped to strengthen the single European currency. Eurozone current account showed a surplus in October, more than 29 billion euros. Rather high - the best was only in April this year. At the same time, published today minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank dedicated to monetary policy, did not tell us anything new about a possible reduction in the minimum interest rate.
Today, the euro dollar forecast: Despite the fact that the minutes of the October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which became available to the general public on Wednesday, leaving the door open for a December rate hike, with the start of the North American session, the euro continued its offensive against the dollar. Perhaps traders have not found in the published minutes of fairly strong signal in support of its forthcoming review. By adding more than forty items of value, the single currency broke through the middle line for dvuhsotdnevnoy hour chart. Further growth was stopped by the strong resistance line at 1.0750. On the whole, the technical indicators signal a relatively high probability of a downward trend from the last turning point. The slope as the hundred-day and dvuhsotdnevnoy average remains negative, the direction of forming a downtrend. The main points at which we can verify the correctness of our forecast will be the levels of 1.0716 and 1.0681. Break down each of them will signal about the seriousness of the trend, and psychological readiness of traders to take further sinking the euro. It is possible that once below 1.0681, the quotation will cause the sale of the euro, thereby sending it even further - down to the support line at 1.0667. For more intrigue to this forecast tomorrow will Mario Draghi speech at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt.
Forex. Prediction of the pound against the dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 11/20/2015
Sterling in recent months has become one of the few monetary units, to provide decent resistance to strengthen the US dollar. Although the statement of the Head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney about the upcoming revision of the interest rate this summer helped the pound move up, sent to the far shelf - general state of the economy and the banking system of the United Kingdom helped sterling to defend their position.
Publication of reports on FOMC meeting at least not weaken the position of the US dollar. Yes, the revision rate in December - it is quite possible event which depends on the country's economic performance. And economic indicators, including published on Thursday, evidence in favor of such a scenario. American manufacturers index PhillyFed, considered as one of the key indicators far exceeded forecasts, although far from the best performance of the year. It is logical that the likelihood of a December rate revision in the US today is considered unchanged in the last days of high level - 68%. Despite this, with the opening of today's trading session, the pound managed to move up to sixty points. Moving up on Thursday was part of a general upward trend observed by us during the last nine days. Recall that in early November, for two days the British currency lost more than three hundred and fifty points, reaching a local minimum at the level of 1.5025. However, pushed the interest of traders and positive economic indicators in the reports from the time the pound regained in the total cost of about 270 points. Trading session on Thursday became the interesting fact that the quote pair overcame his hundred-day moving average for the four-hour schedule, but stopped in front of foreign dvuhsotdnevnoy midline.
Pound / dollar today in the forecast: A possible reason for a stop on the way up became released today data on volumes of retail sales of the United Kingdom. After the September growth rates of 1.9%, the market exploded and surpassed the expectations of analysts, the October drop in sales of 0.6% was an indication of a possible deterioration of the British economy. Yes, September gains were largely stimulated by the general enthusiasm in the background while passing the Rugby World Cup, but then such a substantial drawdown of household consumption could be the first of the negative signals. In the meantime, the situation is ambiguous, and technical indicators argue in favor of this position. 100 and 200-day moving average is located almost horizontally for a four-hour schedule, creating a narrow price range. It is expected that within this corridor and begin the trading session on Friday. The boundaries of its values are 1.5254 and 1.5315. It is possible that before the start of the US trading session, the events will develop in this area. In favor of a balanced current position and says overbought, who took the middle position. However it is likely that the quotation will be developed and will overcome support at around 1.5315. A possible help in this would be expected at 18.15 Moscow time, the performance of the Head of the New York branch of the Fed, Mr. Dudley. Suffice hawkish stance Dudley could send the pound down to the next support levels at 1.5230 and even 1.5190.
Forex. Forecast the price of gold and silver as of today 11/20/2015
Fundamental factors reduce the global demand for the precious metal continues to play a crucial role in the construction of medium-term and short-term forecasts for the pair. It is rapidly decreasing demand for gold in the first place - in India and China, determines the nature of a long downward trend that we see over the past four years.
A careful examination of the data leads to the conclusion about the absence of a strict correlation between gold prices and US interest rates. Supply and demand, corrected the strong or weak position of the quote currency - that's the underlying factors that shape the behavior of this pair today. The proof of this theory was the last day. Having retired only five dollars per ounce from another historic low reached two days ago, gold remains an attractive tool for traders who are in this situation enough potential price increases. Trading session on Thursday started with a mark of $ 1071. However, the first two attempts to rise above the level of his hundred-day average for the time schedule have not been successful - the level of $ 1 079 remained an insurmountable obstacle to the middle of the North American trading session. By this time, the dollar substantially passed their position - proof of this was the drop in the index at its seventy points.
Immediately took advantage of this, the price of gold broke the mark of a hundred-day moving average.However, energy traders were not sufficient to break the next key level, formed dvuhsotdnevnoy moving average for the time schedule. Consolidation occurred between the value of $ 1078 and $ 1082 per ounce, likely from here will begin trading on Friday.
Rate of gold today in the forecast: Fundamental to this trading session will be the downtrend. Until today, this trend determines the angle of the 200-day moving average line, above which the quotation can not rise from the end of October. Although this angle becomes more and more flat, there is no reason to believe that tomorrow will be able to overcome a pair of quotes this line. In this case, on Friday we expect a reversal correction down to $ 1076. It is possible that we will see another attempt prices rise above $ 1082 per ounce.To successfully complete this effort need significant stimulus that is not observed in the economic calendar, culminating a week.
Silver this week follows his companion more expensive - gold, completely repeating the character of his movement. I was no exception and the last day. Similarly, slightly rising above the historic low of $ 14.08 per ounce, silver has tried to overcome the strong resistance line at $ 14.36. After an unsuccessful attempt, quotes concentrated in a narrow price range of $ 14.24 - $ 14.28.
The main difference between the graphs of silver and gold in that unlike gold, moving averages of the metal is located almost horizontally with minimum slope downwards.
Course silver forecast for today: Did quotes pair reached its strong support line, and for a while linger here.In our forecast for Friday - the continuation of the lateral displacement of prices in the hallway $ 14.24 - $ 14.44. There may be some expansion of the range, preferably upwards. Technical indicators suggest that the upper bound of trading by the end of the week can be displaced to the level of $ 14.56.
The focus of the market will attract - Publication in the euro area indicator of consumer confidence for November, as well as a very significant statistics in Canada, including: changes in the volume of retail sales for September and October consumer price index. Among other economic news - China will publish the index of coincident and leading indicators for October. The Bank of Japan will publish its monthly report on the situation in the world economy. In Germany, the index of producer prices will be released in October, and the UK will publish data on net volume of borrowings to finance the public sector and the report of the Supervisory Board of the activities of the largest banks in the country. On the same day performances by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve Vice -Chairman Stanley Fischer.
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