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Main » 2015 » November » 19 » Forex forecast for today 11/19/2015: The euro / dollar near one-year low
Forex forecast for today 11/19/2015: The euro / dollar near one-year low

Forex. Forecast of the euro against the US dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 11/19/2015

The dynamics of the currency pair euro / dollar continued to move within a downward trend during the trading session on November 18. During the bidding in the Old World we saw a classic case of correction after a decline from the peak of the current trading week - 1.0756, the minimum weekly level (at the beginning of the correction) - 1.0630.



Thus, the exchange rate of the currency pair rose to 50% Fibonacci level, indicated by the decline. 1.0690 peak was seen by market participants as an optimal point for the opening of transactions on sale of the single currency, which was the trigger for the resumption of the downward trend, with relatively low volatility - the rate dropped to a value of 1.0660 (23.6% Fibonacci level) and consolidated in the region. Unlike their European counterparts, American traders actively involved in trade with the trend, and as a consequence, within a few hours after the opening of trading on the western shore of the Atlantic, we have seen the formation of a new local minimum at 1.0620, which, however, was not completed successfully and the rate returned to the values ​​at the support level 1.0630.



The euro / dollar today: Further dynamics of movement of the euro against the American will be substantially determined by the ratio of the majority of investors to the level of 1.0630. If confidence in the Fed rate hike at the December meeting, backed by performances by some members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will not weaken - the current, repeatedly tested the support level will be overcome in the course of today's trading session, we can see the achievement of the new local minimum at around 1.0580 and 1.0520. If made ​​on November 18 local minimum, once again, it will not be broken - the situation will be re-sign with the correction potential target on the damage resistance - 1.0680.

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Forex. Forecast of the pound against the dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 11/19/2015


The cost of the British pound against the US dollar continues to be in formed in the middle of the previous trading week, the hallway 1.5180 - 1.5250, only occasionally briefly go outside its boundaries, and in fact, spending most of the time between the values ​​of 1.5190 and 1.5235. The situation seems quite unusual for a course of  the pound / dollar, which is a classic example of high volatility among the major currency pairs.

The causes of what is happening began several factors. On the one hand, this strengthens against major US dollar assets. Most market participants are confident that the US financial regulator will take into account the good state of the economy, which confirms the statistics of its various branches (from the labor market to industry and construction), and goes on long-promised rate hike later this year. On the other hand, the exchange rate of the United Kingdom supported by several important fundamental factors. First of all, it is consistent statements by the UK financial regulator of the planned in the foreseeable future tightening of monetary policy as the main instrument of implementation, increase in interest rates. Terms of realization of the plans, according to the deputy head of the control of monetary policy the Bank of England will depend, above all, not against inflation, according to a substantial part of experts and analysts, and the state of the economy. The second factor is the continuing expectations of the UK release of the European Union in a referendum. Although this perspective is far enough on the terms of today, it is already supporting the pound.


Today the pound / dollar in the forecast for November 19, assessing the current technical and fundamental situation, assume a relatively high probability of breakdown of the resistance level 1.5250, which will signal the resumption of an upward trend with growth potential to the value 1.5360. Support levels are at 1.5180 and 1.5110 values.

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Forex. Forecast the price of gold and silver today 11/19/2015

The downtrend the price of an ounce of gold, has continued since the beginning of the trading week, the minimum recorded in the current year, the value of the metal price - $ 1063, during the Asian trading session on November 18. After that, in a sense, an historical event, greatly reduced volatility and exchange rate consolidated in the hallway $ 1066 - $ 1072 per ounce. Further dynamics will depend on the levels of supply and demand on the gold and the US dollar. Significant pressure on the price of the precious metal has a number of factors, among which, of course, is to provide a systematic reduction in demand from the largest consumer - China. This trend is quite natural - triggered by the collapse of the stock market, the decline in investment in the real economy, especially in industry, has caused a significant slowdown in the second world economy.Industry and of itself is a major consumer of gold as raw materials, but the greatest impact on the demand caused buyers of finished jewelry that because of declining real incomes have become less and spend longer trying to accumulate funds in the event of deterioration of the situation.

The price of gold today in the forecast: expect the trend of growth in demand for the US dollar puts additional pressure on the dynamics of the gold and gradually increases the likelihood of re-testing the value price of $ 1063, its breakdown and the possibility of further lowering the minimum value of the current decade - $ 1044.5.In the event that the bulk traders decide to take a breather in the sale of gold in the near future we will see a correction to resistance levels - $ 1077 and $ 1088 per troy ounce.

Silver, demonstrating that has become typical in recent years, high dynamics, continues to move in a downward trend. The fundamental causes of a trend are the same factors that make capture all new lows gold rate - reducing the actual consumption of the precious metals from the world's major consumers, on the one hand, and widespread, with few exceptions, growth in demand for the US dollar in anticipation of higher interest rates , with another.

Course of silver today in the forecast for November 19, assume that the current downward trend will continue and retest the local low of $ 14.05 will be successful. The next movement will guide the minimum level recorded in the current year and decade - $ 13.98 per troy ounce.

Resistance Levels as goals unlikely, but possible correction, is at $ 14.30 and $ 14.50.

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Forex. news

The focus of the market would be the decision of the Bank of Japan's main interest rate, comment on monetary policy, data on the annual growth of the monetary base and the prospects for economic activity and prices.Changes in the rate is not expected, the norm it will be kept at the same level - less than 0.1%. On the same day a press conference the head of the Bank of Japan - Haruhiko Kuroda. Other very important indicators will be - the publication in Japan of the September index of business activity in all sectors of the economy, changes in the amount of orders for equipment and the October trade balance, including exports and imports. The corresponding figures for the trade balance will be released in Switzerland. It should also pay attention to the publication in the UK retail sales and Balance industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industry, and statistics from the United States - to weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed in November, as well as indices of delayed coincident and leading indicators. In other news - the publication of the index of purchasing and selling prices of the manufacturer - in New Zealand, the November data on the volume of foreign investments into the economy of the country and the volume of capital invested abroad - in Japan, the report of the European Central Bank at the end of the last meeting on monetary policy, and changes in the volume wholesale trade in September - in Canada.




Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to customers to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material traders in developing their own forecasts. The company assumes no liability in any form, for any losses or other damages customers, direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of forecasts, presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work. 

The foreign exchange market daily forecast MaxiMarkets


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