Currency market forecast for November 18, 2015, EUR / USD
News traders note:
16.00 MSK. US: FOMC members William Dudley will make a speech.
16.30 MSK. USA: The volume of building permits issued in October (the previous value of -5.0% m / m forecast 3.1% m / m).
18.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy.
22.00 MSK. US: Publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting.
The forecast of the euro against the dollar The EUR / USD today 11/18/2015
Traders in the euro today is to hold short positions, and build on short-term growth rate of the European currency. Yesterday's data from the ZEW institute business climate in Germany, although it came out better than the consensus forecast, but the downward trend in this indicator is still strong. After seven consecutive months of decline, this indicator showed growth in October, and this is clearly not enough to talk about the negative trends. States yesterday, on the contrary, pleased with the players forex moderately positive inflation data for October. In this regard, there was expansion of the yield differential of US and German government bonds, which increases the attractiveness of investing in the assets of America. Today, with the opening of the US session, will be the authoritative representative of the FOMC U.Dadli that can once again confirm the intention of the monetary authorities to raise interest rates on December 16. Against this background, market participants have no other choice but to continue to build up short positions on the euro. Although traders sell the strong euro is now can not count, as the dollar index (USDX) is close to the psychological level of 100.00, where investors will take profits on long positions, that buck cause some pullback.
Recommendations for the euro / dollar: Today, traders should sell the pair eur usd Sell on price growth to 1.0664 / 1.0694 and goals at the level of 1.0620.
Euro / dollar levels for today: support levels 1.0673 - 1.0610 and resistance levels: 1.0712 -1.0760.
Forecast exchange rate of sterling against the dollar the GBP / USD today 11/18/2015
Traders on the pound now worth waiting for short stature. Differential profitability indicators of US CPI and the UK in October declined in favor of the latter, which caused an increase in the yield of British government bonds to German and American counterparts. Since the start of trading of important macroeconomic statistics is expected, the currency market players will try to gain a foothold above the 52 figure. In the second half of the session, investors will pay attention to data on crude oil inventories in the United States. Oil reserves increased seven consecutive weeks against the backdrop of a seasonal decline in demand and production growth. In October, crude oil inventories increased by 24.88 mln. Barrels, which is 5.58% more than in the same period in 2014. The number of working rigs, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc, in early October 2015 was equal to 809 in 1920 against the previous year. Thus, reducing the drilling does not cause reduction of volume of stocks, but rather increases them. Against this backdrop, today's oil market can again wait negative data, causing not only the drop in oil prices, but the decline in most commodity market instruments. This is a positive factor for the dollar, as the cost of raw materials denominated in US greenbacks.
Recommendations for GBP / USD: Today, sterling traders in tandem with the American side should not expect trading in the range 1.5150 -1.5250.
Pound / dollar levels for today: support levels: 1.5206 - 1.5165 and resistance levels: 1.5271- 1.5315.
The forecast of the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 11/18/2015
Traders on the dollar with the yen today has all the chances to wait for the predominance of "bullish" sentiment.This week started off volatile macroeconomic statistics. Japan, according to data on GDP for the third quarter, slipped into a technical recession. American inflation in October showed a slight increase, which increased investors' expectations regarding a possible tightening of monetary policy by the FOMC. Thus, the pair dollar / yen is the currency of Japan obvious outsider. Do not leave aside, and the dynamics of the demand for "risky assets". For two consecutive days, the rise in stock markets in Asia, Europe and North America, which together with the high-yielding growth of quotations of cross-rates indicates an increase in operations carry trade, which is negative for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Today, late in the evening will come, "the Fed minute," but here, in my view, do not expect the pressure on the dollar, despite the fact that the protocol FED will not be positive for the US currency. The last meeting held on October 28 Feda, before the release of positive data on the labor market (November 6). That's release on employment and changed the trend in favor of the dollar forex. Against this background, market participants will focus on macro-economic statistics, which will be delivered by December 16, the date of the meeting of FED, which may shed light on a possible solution to the monetary authorities.
Recommendations for the pair USD / JPY: Today, traders should buy the dollar Buy's reduction of the Dollar to Yen 123.25 / 122.95 and take profit at 123.80.
Dollar / yen levels today: levels of support: support levels: 123.00 - 122.45 and resistance levels: 123.60 - 124.06.