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Main » 2015 » November » 16 » Forex forecast for today 11/17/2015: The market Eurocurrency weakest link.
Forex forecast for today 11/17/2015: The market Eurocurrency weakest link.

Currency market forecast for November 17, 2015 EUR / USD

News forex traders note:

12.30 MSK. UK: Consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy in October (the previous value of 1.0% y / y, forecast 1.0% y / y).

13.00 MSK. Germany: Sentiment in the business environment of the ZEW institute in November (the previous value of 1.9, the forecast 6.7).

16.30 MSK. US: Consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy in October (the previous value of 1.9% y / y, forecast 1.9% y / y).



Today, the euro against the dollar in EUR / USD forecast for 11/17/2015


Traders in the foreign exchange market today, in the first half of trading on the euro should pay attention to the output of a report from the ZEW institute business climate in Germany. This figure is already seven months in a row demonstrates the negative, and today only the data at the level of 11.5 can support the euro. Otherwise, traders will continue to build short positions. Since this indicator is among the leading, then traded upon release of the data. It is important to say that even a strong report does not allow to count on the strong growth of quotations of European currency as market participants ignored yesterday moderately positive data on inflation in Europe. In October, the growth of prices in the euro zone increased by 0.1% year on year, with the forecast of 0%. The fact that the currency market has ignored this release refers to two features. Firstly, investors are pessimistic about the prospects for a single European currency due to lower inflation expectations. Sales in the oil market, which we are now witnessing will lead the eurozone CPI index into the negative region this winter.Symbolic inflation, investors and economists are not considered to be a steady upward trend. Second, the EUR / USD for six consecutive trading days is in flat 1.0673 -1.0829 and ignoring moderately positive data on the most important macroeconomic indicator indicates the formation of short positions by major market participants.Only institutional investors are able to keep the quotes, because they have large capital. Debt market confirms the negative trend of the single European currency: the yield on 10-year German government bonds is reduced relative to their counterparts from the US and the UK. 

Recommendations for the euro / dollar: Traders today in trading in the euro and the dollar is worth in the first half of trading to sell a couple Sell on price increases to 1.0720 / 1.0760 and a target at 1.0650.

The levels of the euro / dollar today: support levels 1.0673 - 1.0610 and resistance levels: 1.0712 -1.0760.

Recommendations for the euro / dollar


Today the pound against the dollar GBP / USD forecast for 11/17/2015

In the United States and in Albion, there are data on the CPI for October. For the Forex market is the inflation indicator №1, today traders waiting for a volatile day. The yield on 10-year government bonds, which reflects investors' expectations of inflation in October showed an increase of 14 basis points in securities of UK and 10 bp in securities of US, respectively. The labor market in the UK and the US as there is about the same positive trend: unemployment is falling, wages are rising. This first indicator shows better growth in the US and one in the UK. In this regard, it is the growth of average earnings in the Albion can help boost UK CPI on a background of a low base. States have a higher base and is working better than expected release of the data the consensus.Thus, in the morning we can expect the release of data on inflation for Albion 0.1% better than the median forecast, which will support the British currency, and you can expect upside to 1.5230 / 1.5255. At the auction in the United States probably should not expect a smooth depreciation of sterling against the backdrop of moderate growth greenbacks because of the negative dynamics of commodity markets. 

Recommendations for the pound to the dollar: Traders today for the pair GBP / USD is worth waiting for sideways trading between 1.5150 -1.5250.

Pound / dollar levels for today: support levels: 1.5206 - 1.5165 and resistance levels: 1.5271- 1.5315.

Recommendations for the pound to the dollar


Today, the dollar and the yen USD / JPY forecast for 11/17/2015

In forex traders today echt three reasons to wait for the predominance of bullish sentiment in the pair dollar / yen.

First, yesterday's GDP data for Japan disappointed investors. Technical recession again in the Land of the Rising Sun, as a year ago. Economic growth in the third quarter decreased by 0.2%. In view of the "bearish" trend in the market of "black gold" in the near future we can expect a hearing on the topic of the future increase in the stimulus package by the Bank of Japan. This factor is traditionally negative for the national currency, which embolden "bulls" to build up long positions in the pair USD / JPY.

Second, America will release inflation in October, after which we can expect a small rise in the dollar.Fed rate targetiruet  Core CPI, which may be released today at the level of the median forecasts. In September, there was a slowdown in the US labor market, which is a deterrent to inflationary pressures. Although, inflation in October at 1.9% compared to the same period of last year will be positively perceived by market participants.

Third, in the global stock markets yesterday, there was a rising tendency, as in the high-yielding currency crosses, indicating that the demand for "risky assets". Against this backdrop, traders should wait for the pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency for carry trade operations in the first half of the day. 

Recommendations for the dollar and the yen as traders in the first half of trading forex is to buy the dollar against the yen Buy on dips towards 123.00 / 122.75 to 123.80 and goals.

Dollar Yen levels for today: support levels: 123.00 - 122.45 and resistance levels: 123.60 - 124.06.

Recommendations for the dollar and the yen


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»



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