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Main » 2015 » November » 15 » Forex forecast for today 11/16/2015: Bucks will not lose trust
Forex forecast for today 11/16/2015: Bucks will not lose trust

News forex traders note:

02.50 MSK. Japan: Preliminary data on changes in GDP for the 3rd quarter (previous value of -0.3% q / q, forecast -0.1% q / q).

13.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for October (the previous value of 0.0% y / y; the forecast of 0.0% y / y). 



The euro exchange rate against the dollar in EUR / USD forecast for today 11/16/2015


Trading in the currency market on the first day of the week will gepom on background of terrorist attacks in France. Players forex in early trading hours will win back geopolitics, and then not wait for stabilization of the market. In the first half of trading, Eurostat will publish final data on inflation for October. Macroeconomic indicators show that we can expect the release of data within the median forecasts.Last Friday was published the first estimate of euro zone GDP for the third quarter, which is 0.1% was worse than the consensus forecast (growth by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter). Ultra-monetary policy of the ECB is that not bring the desired effect because of the time lag. Four of the leading Old World Spain showed the largest increase - 0.8%. Lokomotiv eurozone, Germany has reported an increase of 0.3%. The debt market took these statistics negative yield of the German 10-ribbon government bonds showed a decline in relation to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in European assets. The United States, by contrast, the last day of trading last week pleased investors with positive reports on retail sales and consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, which caused an increase in the yield of short-term Treasury bonds, which reflect expectations for rates FED. In this regard, in my view, should be to increase short positions on the growth of quotations, as market participants continue to act out the divergence of expectations of possible changes in the monetary policy of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve in December. 

Recommendations for the euro / dollar: Traders today in the first half of trading on the currency market is to sell the pair EUR / USD Sell on price increases to 1.0800 / 1.0835 and take profit at 1.0720.

Euro / dollar levels for today: support levels 1.0760 - 1.0712 and resistance levels: 1.0808 -1.0845.

Recommendations for the euro / dollar


Sterling exchange rate against the US dollar of GBP / USD forecast for today 11/16/2015

Despite the fact that important macroeconomic statistics will not, traders should wait for the predominance of "bearish". The differential return of 10-year-old British and American government bonds expanded in favor of the latter, which increases interest in the assets States. Netstoit forget about the negative on the commodity market, which is also on hand to buyers of the dollar. The International Energy Agency last week reported about record levels of crude oil reserves in the world (3 billion. Barrels), which allows "bears" in the market of "black gold" to actively build up short positions, and sleep peacefully. The nearest strong support level for grade Brent is located at around $ 42.50 / bbl (the minimum level of the current year), which is 5.5% below the closing level of last week. Sales in the oil market will support the dollar, since the value of commodities denominated in the US currency.

Recommendations for the pound to the dollar as traders today is to sell the pair GBP / USD Sell the growth rate sterling to 1.5250 / 1.5290 and 1.5165 on the objectives.

Pound / dollar levels for today: support levels: 1.5206 - 1.5165 and resistance levels: 1.5271- 1.5315.

Recommendations for the pound to the dollar


The forecast of the dollar and the yen USD / JPY today 11/16/2015

The main news today for forex players will output the release of Japan's GDP in the third quarter. Today, probably worth waiting for the publication of data slightly better than the consensus forecast, which will support the yen in Asian trade. Indicators PMI manufacturing and services sectors in the third quarter showed a positive trend, with a higher growth rate was recorded in the services sector, which constitute the backbone of the economy of Japan. Household spending in the third quarter showed a moderate upward trend against the background of low wage growth, as has been said many times by representatives of the Bank of Japan. Himself monetary regulator lowered the estimate of economic growth for 2016 against a background of weak exports.Indeed, in the third quarter, the trade deficit increased by 169% compared with the second quarter. However, when compared to the same period of 2014, the negative net exports declined by 1.92 trillion. yen. On the debt market two trading days in a row differential yields on US government bonds and Japan declined, which also plays into the hands "bears." While the strong currency appreciation of the rising sun is not to have to rely, as lower oil prices will help reduce inflation expectations in Japan, which will result in the activation of hearings on the topic of increasing the volume of the stimulus package by the Bank of Japan.

Recommendations for the pair dollar / yen Traders dollar and the yen today is worth waiting for trade sideways 122.05 -123.05.

Dollar / yen levels for today: support levels: 122.45 - 121.84 and resistance levels: 123.00 - 123.60.


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Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»


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