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Main » 2015 » November » 12 » Forex forecast for today 11/12/2015: The price of oil will support the dollar!
Forex forecast for today 11/12/2015: The price of oil will support the dollar!

Currency market forecast for November 12, 2015, EUR / USD

In the forex market yesterday, the EUR / USD after profit taking on short positions due to the lack of publication of important macroeconomic statistics closed trades plus 0.18%. GBP / USD GBP / USD against the backdrop of positive unemployment rate in the UK in September for bids for added 0.65%. Dollar and Yen USD / JPY on the background of continued profit-taking on long positions for hours lost 0.25%.



Forex news traders note:

02.50 MSK. Japan: Change in orders for machinery and equipment in September (the previous value of -5.7% m / m forecast 3.4% m / m).

13.00 MSK. Eurozone: Industrial Production for September (the previous value of -0.5% m / m forecast -0.1% m / m).

16.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in September (the previous value of 276K; forecast 270K).

19.00 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy.


The forecast of the euro against the dollar The EUR / USD today, November 12, 2015

Today, after a long hiatus, traders will wait for important macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. In early trading, there are data on industrial production for September. In the euro zone manufacturing sector PMI for September showed a decrease of 0.3 n. The leading economy of the Old World have shown mixed trends in Germany, industrial production fell by 1.1%, in France, there was an increase of 0.1%. Today, against this background, to wait for the data better than consensus forecasts do not have to, would not support the euro. At yesterday's auction of the debt market has been an expansion of the differential yields of German and British government bonds in favor of the latter, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in European assets.Treasury bond market in the US was closed on Wednesday on the occasion of the state holiday. In the second half of trading on the foreign exchange market, investors will pay attention to statistics on crude oil inventories in the United States by the Department of Energy. The American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday has reported a significant increase in oil reserves (6.3 mln. Barrels when the consensus forecast of 0.5 mln. Barrels), which indicates a continuation of the negative dynamics against the backdrop of a seasonal decline in demand. Therefore, if today the Ministry of Energy also reported on the increase in crude oil stocks, the quotations of both reference varieties (Brent and WTI) will decrease, which will support demand for American, as the price of oil is denominated in the currency of States. 

Recommendations: Traders on the euro to the dollar in the first half of the session is to sell the euro Sell on price increases to 1.0765 / 1.0800 and 1.0705 at Target.

Euro / dollar levels today: support levels 1.0712 - 1.05659 and resistance levels: 1.0760 -1.0808.


Prediction of the pound against the dollar GBP / USD today, November 12, 2015

Today the foreign exchange market traders on the pound against the dollar expects a mixed fundamental background. On the one hand, the positive labor market in Albion will support sterling. Unemployment in September decreased by 0.1% to a level of 5.3%, while average earnings remained unchanged at 3.0% in annual terms, which is a bit disappointing market participants. The debt market took a positive macroeconomic statistics: after the release of the 10-year British government bonds grew up. On the other hand, in the second half of trading with the oil market can expect the negative, that will put pressure on Brent and WTI and thus support demand for the dollar. Preliminary data from the API indicates an increase in stocks of crude oil and if these findings are confirmed today by the Department of Energy report - we expect a new wave of sales on the market of "black gold". The release of the API was also listed, and another negative factor for the stock of oil from the port of Basra in the US went out Iraqi tankers carrying the 19m. Barrels of crude oil. Thus, in the medium term, the imbalance of supply and demand in the US will only increase. Adding fuel to the fire, and OPEC, which may, at its meeting on 4 December in Vienna to an increase in production quotas at a rate of 1 million. Barrels because of the return of Indonesia in the organization after six years of absence. On Wednesday, the quotes of Brent dropped to a new low for the past 10 weeks. 

Recommendations: Traders on the pound against greenback today is worth waiting for trade sideways 1.5130 -1.5260.

Pound / dollar levels for today: support levels: 1.5206 - 1.5165 and resistance levels: 1.5271- 1.5315.


The forecast of the dollar and the yen USD / JPY today, November 12, 2015

Today, the foreign exchange market trading in Asia, traders should pay attention to data on orders for machinery and equipment in Japan in September. It is a leading indicator of industrial production, which is closely monitored by economists and investors. PMI manufacturing sector in September showed a decline of 0.7 p., To its lowest level in four months, as well as below the annual average. This trend indicates growing pessimism among purchasing managers. In Japan during the summer of new factory orders also show a negative trend, which excludes the possibility of increasing the production capacity. Although in the last few months against the background of a low base today possible growth rate compared with the previous months within the median forecasts, however, the Japanese currency is not support. On Wednesday, the financial markets saw demand for risky assets, which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.Leading stock indicators finished trading in the planet's "green zone", yielding crosses also finished the day rising prices. The increase in "risk appetite" among investors will boost the operations carry trade, through the Japanese currency. 

Recommendations: Traders dollar and the yen today is to buy a pair Buy's growth rate USDJPY to 122.75 / 122.45 and target at 123.55.

Dollar / yen levels for today: support levels: 122.45 - 121.84 and resistance levels: 123.00 - 123.74.


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»


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