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Forex forecast for today 11/11/2015: In the currency market is still the main greenbacks!
Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today November 11
The course of the currency pair EUR / USD continues to be the medium-term downtrend, and the dynamics of the beginning of the current trading week with confidence confirms this fact. In the present situation there are a number of fundamental reasons, which form the current technical picture.
Since the pair - is, in fact, the relative ratio of the two rates of exchange, and the reasons for the dynamics of this relationship is found in the economies of both issuers. The main influence on the euro in the current situation, first of all, provides the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, clearly aimed at weakening its own currency. Confirmation that this policy will continue and even intensify, is, on the one hand - the rhetoric of a number of officials led by the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, and on the other, - reduction of macroeconomic indicators and, no less importantly, the expectations of management with respect to economic growth in the euro area. All of this is displayed in the reduction of business activity.
In the United States the trend of monetary policy, the current economic growth and vision for the future of the national economy are fundamentally different from what is happening in Europe. Regarding monetary policy, we regularly hear presentations by members of the Federal Reserve System of the high probability of increasing the refinancing rate in December, which certainly gives market participants' confidence in the prospects of the US currency. The most striking indicator that demonstrates the economic growth in the United States, uniquely, is published November 6, change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural (Non-Farm Payrolls), overcomes the wildest expectations. Vision of the future managers of the key companies of the world's largest economy last week showed indexes of business activity in the manufacturing and non-production sectors.
Today, the euro against the dollar on November 11 suggest that the euro / dollar Euro / dollar continues to move in the current downtrend, not demonstrating high volatility, especially in the second half of the trading session due to the weekend in the US and Canada.
The levels of support, which will limit the continuation of the depreciation is at around 1.0670, 1.0620 and 1.0530. Resistance levels that may become targets for the unlikely but possible correction values are located at 1.0780 and 1.0830.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 11/11/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
In general, the sterling showing similar to the dynamics of the euro, is in a significantly different strategic situation. Proof of this is a more confident and a significant correction after falling as a result of the publication of better than expected employment data in the United States. For several reasons mentioned above, the demand for the US dollar, most likely will not decline in the foreseeable future, which will put pressure on the exchange rate of the currency pair Pound \ dollar.
On the other hand - we see a number of fundamental factors, which may in the near future have a significant positive impact on the UK currency. In the first place - it is a series of statements of the Bank of England and his deputies about the possibility of revision in the direction of tightening monetary policy regulator, that even in the absence of clear timeline, clearly increases the interest of investors to the possibility of earning on the planned increase in the cost of the British currency. Secondly, - stable macro-economic statistics coming out in a positive or neutral zones signals the growing likelihood that the words of the exchange management control of the United Kingdom may become a reality within a relatively short period of time.
The above factors and expectations make a very real possibility in principle fracture current downward trend that could start on almost any trading session.
Today the pound / dollar in the forecast are likely to see a reduction of maintenance Asian trading session to a local minimum 1.5025, which will start growing. This is likely to coincide with the opening of trading in continental Europe and the British Isles. Further dynamics of the exchange rate will be determined by the behavior of market participants in the area of the maximum point correction - 1.5145. In the event that the achievement of this level will force investors to take profits, there will be a continuation of growth to resistance level 1.5250
After a strong downward trend over the previous two weeks, the price of gold stabilized in a relatively narrow corridor of $ 1084 - $ 1095 per ounce. The direction of future price movements of the precious metal will be determined by a complex of several conflicting fundamental and technical factors. The fundamental uniquely are formed the demand for the US dollar macro-economic data on the US economy and gradually increasing tendency to transfer to both corporate and private investors part of their funds from the reserve assets, which include gold, in assets with a higher yield at greater risk, such as shares of leading companies and futures contracts on stock indices.
The most important technical parameters is to find the value of gold near the lowest in the last 5 years the value - $ 1075 per ounce. This fact increases the demand for gold, giving traders the confidence to turn on this level and, therefore, a good buy signal.
Forecast prices zolotto today November 11 is not expected high volatility in gold because of Veterans Day in the United States. and Canada. Consequently, a good strategy would be trade within the price range $ 1084 - $ 1095. Support levels at an output rate of the value of the defined range will be $ 1080 and $ 1075, while the resistance are located at around $ 1100 and $ 1110 per ounce.
Substantially repeating the dynamics of the cost price of an ounce of gold silver, resulting in a prolonged downward trend, very close to the minimum level in the current decade - $ 14 per ounce. There is a very high probability that most market participants deem the present value of the price-effective to buy, it would be the trigger for a reversal of the current trend and the formation of an uptrend.
Silver forecast for today November 11, we recommend using the tools of technical analysis to identify a trend reversal and open long positions with the targets of the resistance levels at $ 14.46, $ 14.56 and $ 14.74.Support levels are at values of $ 14.35 and $ 14.00 per ounce of silver.
The focus will be the dynamics of the market in industrial production and retail trade in October and from the beginning of the year, as well as investments in fixed assets in China.
Considerable interest will also British report on the labor market, including: the number of applications for unemployment benefits, the dynamics of job seekers, the unemployment rate in the country (the previous figure - 5.4%), the change in the number of employees, as well as changes in the level of average earnings and weekly wage. In addition, there will be published a report of the Supervisory Board of the activities of the largest banks in the country.
Japan unveil October data in orders for equipment.
Australia will present the November index of economic confidence of consumers.
Germany is to publish an index of wholesale prices in October.
France, Canada and the United States celebrate accordingly - Armistice Day , Memorial Day and Veterans Day.Markets are closed, the statistics will not be published.
Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to customers to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material traders in developing their own forecasts. The company assumes no liability in any form, for any losses or other damages customers, direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of forecasts, presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.