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Main » 2015 » October » 28 » Forex forecast for today 10/29/2015: Bucks again in the foreign exchange market leaders
Forex forecast for today 10/29/2015: Bucks again in the foreign exchange market leaders

The foreign exchange market in the forecast for October 29, 2015 EUR / USD

Comments from the US Federal Reserve, which came out yesterday during the second half of trading in the US markets was the main event. Prior to that, the major currency pairs consolidated - forex traders took a wait in anticipation of the release of the FOMC. Investors are wondering: will monetary control hint at the tightening of monetary policy in December or postpone the decision for 2016? The yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflects expectations for interest rates FED, since the last meeting (17 September), decreased by 5 basis points, indicating that "the rhetoric pigeon" the representatives of the US central bank. And FOMC finally gave nothing new. Bet left, though, and hinted that they could do it in December. As a result, the yield of the US 2-year government bonds went up sharply, but as greenbacks. The euro dollar is the EUR / USD this backdrop lost 1.29%, the rate of a dollar a pound GBP / USD fell 0.32%, while the dollar, the yen USD / JPY gained 0.61%.



Traders news today:

02.50 MSK. Japan: Preliminary data on the volume of industrial production in September (the previous value of -1.2% m / m forecast -0.5% m / m).

12.30 MSK. UK: number of approved applications for a mortgage loan in September (the previous value 71.03K; forecast - 73.0K).

15.30 MSK. USA: Preliminary data on changes in GDP for the 3rd quarter (previous value of 3.9% q / q, forecast 1.6% q / q).

16.00 MSK. Germany: Preliminary harmonized CPI for October (the previous value of -0.3% m / m forecast -0.1% m / m).


Forex. The forecast for the euro and the US dollar EUR / USD today 10/29/2015

FOMC said its word and is to line up. Bids are unchanged, although the regulator, and pointed to the possibility of increasing now in December. Although at every meeting since June Fed promises to go to the cycle of tightening monetary policy, so this is obviously not a new event for financial markets. Weak exports, reduced the rate of job creation in the economy and low inflation expectations are again heard in the comments FOMC.But against this background gribek sharply and powerfully went up. What prompted forex traders to open short positions in the pair EUR / USD? After a short pause, traders continued to win back again the divergence in expectations of action by the two central banks: the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Today, the main events will take place again in the afternoon. First, in the United States will report on the GDP for the third quarter. This is the first estimate of economic growth and is likely to wait until the data is better than the consensus forecast.The service sector, according to reports from ISM, in the third quarter showed a high growth rate that compensates for a slowdown in the industrial sector, against the background of the oil industry stagnation due to low oil prices. Household spending in the third quarter also increased by reducing the unemployment rate to its lowest level since April 2008, as well as the growth of average earnings. Positive dynamics is confirmed by the high demand for real estate market: if Americans believe in "the future", they actively carry out operations in the market. The only negative factor for the US economy - the revaluation of the national currency, which causes an increase in imports and reduces the competitiveness of exporters. Then, the attention of traders will be focused on the report on inflation in Germany. The yield on 10-year German government bonds, which reflects inflation expectations in October, showed a negative trend and on this background, today, do not expect the release of the data is better consensus. Low energy prices - is the main threat to price stability in the Old World. 

Recommendations for the euro / dollar today as traders on the euro / dollar is on open sale Sell price growth to 1.0958 / 1.1000 and a target at 1.0860.

The levels of the euro / dollar: the support levels 1.0845 - 1.0818 and resistance levels: 1.0915 -1.0958.

Recommendations for the euro / dollar today


Forex. The forecast for the pound and the dollar the GBP / USD 10/29/2015

Today, traders should pay attention to the British output data on mortgage lending in the UK in September. The positive dynamics of the labor market (the reduction of unemployment and growth of average earnings) in the aggregate decline in interest rates on mortgages point to yield positive data. In this regard, the sterling will get a short-term support, but the growth of quotations should be used to build up short positions for two reasons.

Firstly, as already noted, in the United States today can vyiti positive GDP data for the third quarter. England, by contrast, this week investors upset weak data on the same indicator. Against this background, forex traders will be to win back the differential, which is not in favor of the pound.

Secondly, during the bidding should not expect the prevalence of bearish sentiment in the oil market, which will support the greenback. Stocks of crude oil in the United States again increased, according to data from the Ministry of Energy, which will put pressure on the price of basic reference varieties. 

Recommendations traders on the pair GBP / USD: Yesterday during the trading is open in the sale price Sell pound to 1.5285 / 1.15330 1.5200 and Take basting.

The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5206 - 1.5169 and resistance levels: 1.5271- 1.5315.

Recommendations traders on the pair GBP / USD


Forex. The outlook on the dollar and the yen USD / JPY on 10/29/2015

Today, traders on the currency pair dollar, the yen, there are three reasons to wait for the predominance of "bullish".

Firstly, in trading in Asia likely will be released moderately negative data on industrial production, which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. The decline in the production sector PMI, together with the fall in factory orders is not possible to calculate the output of strong data.

Secondly, the positive report of Apple, along with the "pigeon rhetoric" FOMC, had supported the US stock market, and today it is possible to expect continuation of growth. The demand for "risky assets" will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. S & P500 index is aimed to test the area of ​​the psychological level of 2100, which will contribute to the growth of transactions carry trade.

Thirdly, as otmechaloc in the second half of the session is waiting for the release of data on US GDP for the third quarter better than the consensus forecast, which is positive for the American.

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today as traders for trading in the forex market is open Buy's buying dips towards 120.95 / 120.55 and 121.80 at Target. 

The levels of the dollar, the yen: support levels: 120.73 - 120.36 and resistance levels: 121.37 - 121.84.

Recommendations for the dollar yen pair today


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»

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