Foreign Exchange Market Forecast October 28, 2015, EUR / USD
On the eve amid falling oil prices, which caused a decline in government bond yields in Germany, EUR / USD EUR / USD shedding 0.12% per day. GBP / USD GBP / USD after the release of negative GDP Albion for the 3rd quarter just closed trading in negative territory 0.3%. Against the background of the closure of operations carry trade, which caused demand for the yen as a funding currency, the dollar, the yen USD / JPY dipped 0.6%.
10.28.2015 Today, traders note:
02.50 MSK. Japan: Retail Sales for September (the previous value of 0.0% m / m forecast 1.0% m / m).
17.30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy.
21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate in October (the previous value of <0.25% forecast <0.25%).
The EUR / USD EUR / USD forecast for today 10/28/2015
Traders exchange market in the morning can not wait for the important economic events in connection with the bidding for the euro in tandem with American will determine the dynamics of the stock and debt markets. In the credit markets, the yield of the German 10-year government bonds since the beginning of the week to the British and American counterparts, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in European assets. On the fund yesterday pessimism observed that the euro is a positive factor, as a funding currency. In the second half of trading forex day traders are very glad to welcome the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. Since the last FOMC meeting took place just over a month and no positive signals that would clearly indicates the transition to the cycle of rising interest rates, we have not seen. Inflation expectations, according to the dynamics of the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, for the period decreased, and now should not expect changes in monetary policy. Moreover, the past three weeks on the oil market sell-off observed in the case of their extension - will likely have to postpone the increase in the key rate to the first half of 2016. Given the high rate of decline in oil prices - the chances of such an outcome are very high. In this regard, this year from the regulator to wait tightening of monetary policy is not likely to fall. I took into account whether the market is in such a scenario the current quotes? Apparently yes, because there was a weakening greenback and a half months. Although small, short-term decline in the dollar can be expected upon release of the data. Why not currently expect to change the downward trend in the pair EUR / USD? Because the ECB, in contrast to their American counterparts, plans to increase the size of the program QE, which has traditionally been a factor in the devaluation of the currency.
Recommendations traders in the euro / dollar: Today for trading the currency market the euro in a pair of green is waiting for trade sideways 1.1000 -1.1110.
The levels of the euro / dollar today: support levels 1.1017 - 1.0958 and resistance levels: 1.1051 -1.1096.
GBP / USD rate pound / dollar in the forecast for today 10/28/2015
Yesterday England data released by the national statistics office of the slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter. During this period, the worst feel two sectors: construction and manufacturing. On Thursday, as GDP for the third quarter and will report states, and the event of positive data, sterling will again sell. Today at the auctions in Europe should not expect the predominance of sellers amid falling oil prices. US Department of Energy on Wednesday will release a traditional release of crude oil inventories, which may again disappoint investors weak data on the background of seasonal decline in demand. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes last week, has not recorded any reduction in the number of drilling work and therefore should not rely on a strong production cuts. Brent crude will test the level of $ 47 / barrel during the day, which would support the dollar. On the debt market two trading days in a row there is a differential expansion of the yield of American and British government bonds, which increases the attractiveness of investment in US assets. But further out into the arena of the US Federal Reserve, and probably by traders can expect profit-taking on short positions, and some corrective upward movement in the pair GBP / USD.
Recommendations for the pair GBP / USD: Today, forex traders with a pair GBP / USD is open sale Sell on price increases to 1.5330 / 1.15365 to 1.5295 and Take.
The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5271 - 1.5206 and resistance levels: 1.5315- 1.5351.
Rate USD / JPY Dollar Yen in the forecast for today 10/28/2015
Today natorgah foreign exchange market in Asia, in Japan, there are data on retail trade. In August, there has been a slowdown in the growth rate of the average wage, which is a negative factor for the household expenditure. The indicator of consumer confidence for September also fell by 1.1 p., Compared with the previous month. However, disposable income in the summer increased significantly, indicating that the output data within the median forecasts. Further, traders pay attention to the stock exchanges. Correction continues, which increases the demand for the yen as a funding currency. While in the midst of trading in the US equity markets may again occur "bullish" sentiment caused by the decision of the US Federal Reserve did not change its monetary policy.
Recommendations for the dollar yen pair: Today traders on dollar and the yen is worth waiting for trade sideways 119.90-120.90.
Dollar Yen Levels: Support levels: 120.09 - 119.62 and resistance levels: 120.36 - 120.73.