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Main » 2015 » October » 22 » Forex forecast for today 10/22/2015: Euro today the weakest link.
Forex forecast for today 10/22/2015: Euro today the weakest link.

Forex October 22, 2015, EUR / USD

On Wednesday, the EUR / USD traded in a narrow 1.1334 -1.1377 flat market, against the backdrop of lack of publication of important macroeconomic statistics.GBP / USD pair on the day she lost 0.16% amid falling yields on government bonds the UK in relation to their counterparts from the United States. USD / JPY pair finished trading a symbolic increase in prices by 0.05% on the back of weak data on the trade balance of Japan in September.



Events that should pay attention today:


11.30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade taking into account the cost of fuel for September (the previous value of 0.2% m / m forecast 0.3% m / m).

15.30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB press conference.

15.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in October (the previous value of 255K; forecast 266K).


Euro dollar forecast the EUR / USD 10/22/2015

The main event of the day will undoubtedly be the announcement of the outcome of the ECB meeting. Mario Draghi and his colleagues are still concerned about the decline in consumer prices in the Old World. In the first nine months of this year, CPI increased by only 0.25%. In the same period last year, an increase was recorded in prices by 0.16%. CPI increases against the backdrop of ultrasoft monetary policy of the ECB, but the growth rate is rather weak. This factor may force the central bank to guide the increase in incentives in the first quarter of 2016. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio has said that the need to increase the money supply in order to achieve the inflation target. The main risk to the consumer price is in the downtrend in the market of "black gold". The imbalance of supply and demand indicates that it is possible to expect reduction of quotations of Brent crude oil to the psychological level of $ 40 / barrel, which would lead, CPI deflation in the euro zone region. In the ECB's all well aware, and today we hear again about the preservation of the downside risks to inflation. In this context, the European single currency, in my opinion, will be at the mercy of "bears" and short-term price growth should be used to open short pozitsiy.Na this background, in the first half of the day should be open Sell position on the growth of quotations to 1.1351 / 1.1380 and record profits at the level of 1.1288.Today, you can select the following levels: support levels 1.1318 - 1.1269 and resistance levels: 1.1373 -1.1422.

Euro weakest link


Pound Dollar Forecast GBP / USD 22.10.2015

In the morning all the market participants' attention will be riveted to the publication of data on retail trade in the UK. The positive dynamics of the labor market indicates an increase in consumer spending. The unemployment rate in August dropped to its lowest level since June 2008, taking into account the average wage premiums also shows steady growth. The indicator of consumer confidence also signals the growth of household spending. However, the release of negative inflation in September can not be expected to yield data better consensus. In this regard, we should not expect strong growth of quotations of the British currency in the report on the retail sector and in my view, the reaction of a dive on this event will be short-lived. The dynamics of the debt and commodity markets is now clearly against the "bulls" on the British currency. The yield on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in British assets. In the market of "black gold" the rise of pessimism amid rising crude inventories in the United States, and the lack of positive outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna and the Russian Federation. Moreover, several countries oil producers plug Norway, Azerbaijan, Oman, ignored a meeting in the capital of Austria, referring to the fact that they see no point in an artificial reduction in production quotas. Of the same opinion, Russia and Kazakhstan, who took part in the meeting. Thus, a paradox.Several countries whose budgets are heavily dependent on oil prices, shout at "every corner", it is necessary to take measures to price growth, while at the last moment abandon their words. Reduced oil quotations will support the US currency, as the cost of raw materials denominated in dollars. Against this background, in the first half of the day should be open Sell position on the growth of quotations to 1.5429 / 1.5460, and take profits at the level of 1.5365. It is necessary to distinguish the following levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5382 - 1.5351 and resistance levels: 1.5427- 1.5466.

Euro weakest link


forecast dollar yen USD / JPY 22.10.2015

During the day, we should expect the predominance of "bullish" sentiment for two reasons. First, the world has seen the demand for "risky assets", which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.Leading stock indexes on the eve of the world grew heavy within 0.5% - 09%, "defensive" sectors were among the outsiders, which is a positive signal for the stock exchanges. Second, the sale of the commodity market will support the dollar, since the value of commodity is denominated in the US currency. On the eve of the US Department of Energy has reported a significant increase in crude oil reserves (8 mln. Barrels when the consensus forecast of 3.5 million.), Which will put pressure on the stock in the short term. Against this background, in the first half of the day should be open Buy position to reduce quotations to 119.75 / 119.45, and take profits at the level of 120.15. It is necessary to distinguish the following levels: levels of support: support levels: 119.62 - 119.29 and resistance levels: 120.09 - 120.36.

Euro weakest link

Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»

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