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Main » 2015 » October » 15 » Forex. Forecast for today 10/16/2015: Under pressure from the funding currency
Forex. Forecast for today 10/16/2015: Under pressure from the funding currency

Foreign Exchange Market Forecast October 16, 2015 EUR / USD

On Thursday, trading the forex market greenback managed to slightly adjust and reduce some of the losses - the dollar index (USDX) closed the day at the price of 94.43. EUR / USD EUR / USD after the release of a positive report on US inflation for September closed the day with losses of 0.78%. Pound Dollar GBP / USD after the strong depreciation of the EUR / GBP closed with a small plus 0.08%. Dollar Yen USD / JPY to a decline in the yield differential of Japanese and US government bonds closed minus 0.08%



Forex market main events for today:

12.00 MSK. Eurozone:  Consumer price index  for September (the previous value of -0.1% y / y, forecast -0.1% y / y).

16.15 MSK. US: Industrial Production for September (the previous value of -0.4% m / m forecast -0.2% m / m).

17.00 MSK. US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in October (the previous value of 87.2, forecast 88.8).


Forex. The euro exchange rate against the dollar EUR / USD forecast for 10/16/2015

Today, forex trading in the first half will be released the final data on inflation in the eurozone in September.The second estimate of CPI leading economies in the currency bloc has not changed significantly, and is now likely to wait for the report on the level of consensus. If we compare the differential of US CPI and the euro zone, the figure again shifted in favor of the dollar, which should support the currency States. The debt market yesterday began to form a reversal pattern on the yield spread of 10-year bonds of Germany and US Treasuries. If today there will be a continuation of the trend, the demand for US assets will be high. Do not leave without attention and growth "risk appetite" among investors. Stock markets in Europe and North America yesterday, the leaders of growth were the sectors of high technology, which signals an increase in transactions carry trade. Since market participants are willing to buy the stock with a high coefficient of P / E, the funding currency will come under pressure, among them the single currency. In the second half of trading forex traders attention will be paid to data from the American industrial production and consumer confidence. The first report will probably not appreciate strong data that traders will put pressure on the green paper with Franklin. The ISM September in the manufacturing sector recorded a decline in new orders, employment and business optimism, which is a negative factor for industrial production. Subsequent data from the US (consumer confidence) traders will trade upon release of the report, since it is among the leading indicators. These data support the dollar only if the total value is above $ 92.0, as in the last three months of this indicator has formed a steady downward trend. 

Forex. Recommendations for the euro dollar (EURUSD): Today, the euro dollar in trading the currency market traders should open sale Sell on price growth to 1.1408 / 1.1445 and 1.1350 on the take. 

Euro dollar levels for today: support levels 1.1373 - 1.1318 and resistance levels: 1.1422 -1.1466.

Forex. Recommendations for the euro dollar (EURUSD)


Forex. Pound Dollar GBP / USD forecast for 10/16/2015

In sterling many factors point to a reversal corrective upside.

Firstly, in the United States and Britain this week came reports on inflation for the first month of autumn, and the differential indicators shifted in favor of the US, which should cause a reassessment of positions at financial institutions. In contrast to the observed expansion of the bond market the yield differential of US and British government bonds.

Secondly, yesterday's data on crude oil inventories in the United States can also support the dollar. As expected, the oil reserves last week increased by 7.5 million. Barrels, the highest weekly gain in the past six months. In this connection, it is possible to expect continuation of decrease in prices for Brent, which also support the dollar, as the cost of raw materials denominated in currencies States. However, the strong decline in prices for "black gold" should not count. As already noted, in the second half of the session is to wait for the release of negative industrial production in America that will keep growth greenbacks. 

Forex. Recommendations traders pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD): Today, the trading of the Forex market traders should open sale Sell on rise in prices for 1.5512 /1.5545 and aim at 1.5440.

Pound / dollar levels for today: support levels: 1.5466 - 1.5427 and resistance levels: 1.5497- 1.5551.

Forex. Recommendations traders pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD)


Forex. Dollar Yen USD / JPY forecast for 10/16/2015

The dynamics of the dollar yen pair in the first half of the session will determine the stock and bond market. For the dollar today of a positive background. In the credit markets are moderate expansion of the yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds, which increases the attractiveness of investment in US assets. NNA US stock market yesterday, the leaders of growth were the high-tech index Nasdaq, indicating that the increase in demand for risky assets, and has traditionally been a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. As noted above, at auction in the United States should wait for a moderately negative data on industrial production in the US in September, slightly cool customer. 

Forex. Recommendations for the pair dollar yen (USDJPY): Today, for trading on the dollar the yen traders should open a buy Buy's depreciation towards 118.55 / 118.20, and Target at the level of 119.27. 

Dollar Yen levels for today: support levels: 118.68 - 118.23 and resistance levels: 118.68 - 118.98.

Forex. Recommendations for the pair dollar yen (USDJPY)


Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»

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