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Forex forecast for today 10/12/2015: We are waiting for corrective decline in the euro and the pound!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) today 12oktyabrya
After the release of the minutes of the September meeting on the eve of the Fed the dollar came under pressure around the Forex market. The euro / dollar is against this background that reached a new 3-week high - 1.1387.
And I grew a couple more by inertia, without the support of fundamental factors. On the eve of a long weekend traders prefer not to change positions, despite the fact that the head of the ECB Mario Draghi confirmed on Friday that the regulator is ready to use all tools available, and it may increase the financial incentive program for the European economy (which leads to a reduction in price of the euro). Moreover, the chances of it by the Central Bank in recent days has increased significantly on the back of weak economic data from the Eurozone, including the low inflationary pressures, appreciation of the euro and rising external risks affecting the dynamics of the single currency. The market response to this statement, we are waiting for this week, immediately after the holidays in the US, Japan and Canada.
The euro dollar today: expect a reversal of the euro and to reduce short-term pullback euro dollar quotations to the following target levels: 1.1337, 1.1306 and 1.1290. Then we expect the resumption of growth in the euro against the dollar the previous local maximum of 1.1386 and the key resistance level of 1.14.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today October 12
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
After the auction on Friday, the British pound has formed a new 3-week high at 1.5382 price level upward momentum in the price movement of the pair faded. Traders have begun to close the gap on the purchase of foreign currency immediately after the release in the UK of negative statistics on foreign trade balance. The report showed the excess of the total foreign trade deficit (3.3 bn. Pounds) over the forecasts of analysts (2.15 bln.).
Weak balance data disappointed traders and launched the British currency to decline. By the beginning of the American session, the pair GBP / USD was trading at the level of 1.5299. Rest of the day the pair held in a narrow range near the lows reached and completed trades at a price level 1.5311.
The mood on the pair also changed somewhat. Investors do not believe that the Bank of England may begin to act before the Fed, because every time after the first rate hike expectations in the United States once again relegated to the future, the pound starts to get cheaper. As a result, increases the risk of turning a pair of the correction to its previous recovery.
Pound Dollar today implies a decline in the British zone of 1.53 ÷ 1.5260. If the bears manage to overcome the pound lower range (1.5260), while the decrease in quotations of the dollar will continue to pound price levels 1.5228, 1.52 and 1.5188.
If the level of 1.5260 resist, then GBP / USD will unfold on the growth of the previous local maximum of 1.5382 and higher, the following purposes: 1.54 and 1.5435.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today October 12
XAU / USD, 4:00.
At the auction on Friday, we again observed a fairly strong demand for gold. Growth drivers in the metal continued to be factors such as a slowdown of the world economy, the weakness of the US currency and the translation of investments in gold from risky assets. Furthermore, an additional factor of growth in metals prices began to minutes of the meeting FOMC, confirmed that the Fed will not rush to increase interest rates.Against this background, the price of gold by the end of trading increased by $ 29.49 - up to seven-week high $ 1159.60 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level - $ 1162 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the next target level - $ 1170, $ 1176 and $ 1181 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of $ 1152 a day reversal. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels to $ 1148, $ 1142 and $ 1138 per ounce.
Gold rate today assume the completion of the rise and spread of quotations metal reduction to the above target levels of support.
Silver at auction on Friday vybilos the general trend. After last week's rally day trading took place in a rather narrow sideways range bound $ 15.60 and $ 16 per ounce. Following the auction, the price of silver has risen in price by 15 cents, and fixed on the closing price at $ 15.83 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at $ 15.87 price level. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the metal could test the previous local maximum of $ 16, and after the break to continue his climb to the target levels of $ 16.10 per ounce and above. Immediate support for the silver held by the level of weekly reversal 15.68 $ per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in the following levels of $ -15.48, $ 15.38 and $ 15.24 per ounce.
Silver forecast for today expect a reversal and reduce the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
The economic calendar Monday - Japan Celebrates Health and Sports Day.
In Canada - Thanksgiving Day in the USA - Columbus Day. Markets are closed, the statistics are not published.
The unit of economic statistics United Kingdom introduced the index of leading and coincident economic indicators for August.
The European Central Bank will announce the weekly purchases of securities.
In France, will be published current account balance, and unveiled the results of the auction for the sale of 3, 6- and 12-month government debt.
Today will be the speech of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz.
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