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Forex forecast for today 09/25/2015: Yellen rehabilitated greenbacks!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/25/2015
In Germany, business sentiment unexpectedly improved in September.According to the Institute for Economic Research in Munich, the business climate index rose ninth consecutive month and reached 108.5 points, against the previous level of 108.4 and 107.8 points forecast. The economic expectations index for the next six months rose to the level of 103.3 (in August - 102.2, 101.4 forecast).
Indicator assessment of the current situation decreased slightly and amounted to 114.0 (previous level of 114.8, the forecast - 114.7). Foreign exchange market reacted quite positively and, despite some contradictory data (an indicator of the current situation), renewed appreciation of the euro. Weak data from the United States on orders for durable goods supported the buyers of the single currency. As a result, the euro against the dollar, passing on the rise more than 130 points, tried to test the key resistance level of 1.13. But could not break through the level. Strong statistics from America by volume of home sales in the primary real estate market stopped the growth of the euro against the dollar and launched a policy of reduction. During the downward correction greenback regained some earlier losses and closed the trading session at a price level 1.1229. Night speech Fed chairman Janet Yellen at the University of Massachusetts ("On the dynamics of inflationary processes in the country and monetary policy") further supported the greenback. In her speech, she said that with the majority of FOMC members expect the growth of interest rates on federal assets this year. Forex met this statement a sharp increase in demand for the dollar, the rate of which against the euro reached the opening of trading on Friday, the price level of 1.1160.
The euro dollar is suppose - the completion of reduction near the 1.1138 level, and then - turn and the rise of the single European currency to the target levels: 1.1150; 1.12; 1.1216; 1.1257 or higher, in the direction of the key resistance level of 1.13.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 09/25/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
An empty economic calendar and the absence of significant figures left Pound Dollar in yesterday's trading, without drivers for the movement. Market participants are waiting for the performance Janet Yellen. In this regard, the situation throughout the day and has remained uncertain. Pound dollar showed mixed trends to the end of trading continued to generate movement in a narrow sideways range. At the end of the day the British currency fell slightly, closing at fixing the price level 1.5228 (- 19 points.
Pound dollar today assume - the completion of reduction, turn and lift the British currency to the target levels: 1.5247; 1.5267; 1.5280; 1.53 and higher, towards 1.5320 price level.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/25/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today:
At yesterday's auction the price of gold continued to recover. The course for the yellow metal trading grew by $ 27 (to a level of $ 1156.62 per ounce) amid reports of supply of the precious metal. According to the customs authorities, Switzerland in August exported 174 tons of gold, which is 8% more than in the previous month.Almost 70% of this volume was sent to Asia. Exports to India remained unchanged compared with July, but exports to China rose by 50%. At the same time, India is likely in the coming months will also buy more gold.All Indian Federation of trade in precious stones and jewelery predicted that in the fourth quarter gold demand in the country will increase significantly, since the end of September in India, traditionally the season of festivals, and in November will start the season of weddings.
Under these conditions, the uncertainty of the immediate prospects of the dollar (meaning - the beginning of the process of raising rates) provided substantial support for the "bulls" on Metals and triggered aggressive buying of gold. The cost of metal has reached a new 4-week high ($ 1156.62 per ounce), but profit taking at the end of the day stopped the rise and allowed players to start to correct the previous decline.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level - $ 1158 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise in the following metal price levels - $ 1162; $ 1170 and $ 1176 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is at the level of day reversal - $ 1146. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1142; And $ 1132 - $ 1127 per ounce.
The forecast price of gold today expect - the completion of the current correction and the resumption of growth in the value of gold to the above target levels of resistance.
Against the background of the growth of the traditional defense assets in the fall of stock markets and the weakening of the dollar exchange rate of silver also rose in yesterday's trading. In this regard, the price movement of the metal following the dynamics of gold and the beginning of the American session tested on the rise the price level of $ 15.20, rising with the 45 cents per ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at a price level - $ 15.24. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, the metal may rise to the following objectives - $ 15.42; $ 15.48 i15.60 $ per ounce. Immediate support for the silver held by the level of daylight reversal - $ 15 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the price levels - $ 14.95; 14.85 and $ 14.70 per ounce
Silver today in the forecast are expecting - the completion of the current downward correction near the level of daytime turning $ 15 per troy ounce, and then - the resumption of growth in the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.
In Friday's economic calendar will attract the most attention - the publication of Japan's consumer price index for August; final data on GDP growth for the 2nd quarter of this year - in the US and speech Fed chairman Janet Yellen.
Among other economic news - Eurozone will report on the volume of lending to the private sector. The Bank of England will publish the report of the Committee for Financial Policy at the end of the last meeting. And in the US statistics are presented - the quarterly index of personal consumption expenditures; main index for personal consumption expenditures; September index of business activity in the services sector; composite index, which includes the combined figures for business activity in both sectors of the economy, as well as an index of economic confidence of consumers; assessment of current conditions and inflation expectations (for the year and 5 years) - from the University of Michigan.
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