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Forex forecast for today 09/22/2015: The driver for the dollar - a rate hike in October
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/22/2015
After Friday forex instead of the more logical continuation of growth observed in the euro strengthening of the dollar, it became clear that the market played the Fed's decision and the further foundations for the growth of the single currency does not see. It took just 24 hours to make sure that in the confrontation between Europe and the US in a leadership position is still the United States.
In this context, the growth of quotations of European currency needs a very serious factor. But at the last ECB meeting it was announced that in the coming months we can go about tightening monetary policy in the euro area and the increase of the rate of the euro, and the extension of, or even expanding the program of financial support of the European economy. ECB Chief Economist Peter Prat has once again stated that the Bank is ready to increase the program of redemption of bonds (the size of which is now - $ 1 trillion. Euro), if economic conditions require action. Consequently, the other significant factors for the growth of the euro there is little, and the currency will have to rely only on sporadic positive news.
At the same time, several Fed officials - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart said that the rate decision was adopted by a slight majority and its increase this year was still possible . This strengthened the position of the dollar, which on Monday resumed its growth, which has led to a drop in the pair to a minimum 2-week level of -1.1203.
However, the euro there is still technically possible to maintain an upward trend. The euro dollar is now completing corrective pullback, and if the "bulls" will be able to keep a couple of break down significant support level - 1.1087, while the pair euro / dollar may resume growth.
The euro dollar today on the alleged attempt of the euro against the dollar to test the breakdown of short-term uptrend line at 1.1166. If we can overcome it, then followed by continued decline in the price level of 1.1087. If the breakdown of 1.1166 level will not take place, the euro dollar will unfold on the rise to the following target levels: 1.1216, 1.1277, 1.13 and 1.1332.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 09/22/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
Yesterday, trading in the Forex market the sterling held within a fairly narrow lateral range bound 1.5566 and 1.5480. Significant news in the economic calendar Monday was not, and the only indicator of the dynamics of house prices proved to be weaker than expected.
The course of the pound / dollar is against this background down to the bottom of the range, but refrained from further decline after saying a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England John Cunliffe that the next step will be the Committee's interest rate increases. As a result, the pair rebounded from the low and closed the trading session at a price level 1.5505.
Pound dollar today in the forecast expect the resumption of reduction of quotations pound against the dollar to the key support level of 1.55, and further attempts to test the support level of 233-day moving average 1.5466, hour timeframe. If the breakdown of this level will take place, then followed by a further depreciation of the pound dollar towards 1.5435 and 1.54. If, however, exceed the level of 1.5466 will not be possible, in this case British unfold on the rise in price levels 1.5540, 1.5565 and 1.56.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/22/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today.
Rate of gold in Chera in the auction showed a negative trend against the background of uncertainty prevailing in the market on the timing of rate hikes the Fed. Despite the fact that on Thursday, it was decided to maintain the base rate at the same level, 13 of the 17 members of the Committee expressed the view that 2015 is the appropriate time to start normalizing monetary policy. This weekend was a divergence of Fed officials. Besides, the Yellen signaled that a rate hike is possible in October 2015 year.
Against this backdrop, gold rally was stopped and turned quotes metal reduction. At the end of the day December gold futures on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» fell $ 5.88, at the close of trading $ 1133.20 per troy ounce. As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of daylight turn $ 1134 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following price levels - $ 1142, $ 1148 and $ 1158 per ounce.
Immediate support for gold settled at $ 1127 weekly reversal. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels to $ 1123, $ 1117 and perhaps $ 1110 per ounce.
Today, the price of gold in the forecast assumes a reduction in the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.
Silver On Monday showed quite sluggish sideways trading. The "bulls" managed to keep the metal from falling and, despite volatility, closed at the top end of the range, closed in the "plus" in the price level of $ 15.19 per ounce. As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at $ 15.25 price level. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the metal will rise to the price levels of $ 15.42 and $ 15.48 per ounce.
Immediate support for the silver passes for $ 15.10 price level. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 14.95, $ 14.70 and 14.55 per ounce.
Silver in the forecast today expect to reduce the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
The economic calendar on Tuesday Japan continues to bank holiday. Markets are closed. Statistics will not be published. The unit of economic statistics interest are the data from the UK mortgage lending, the volume of loans for the financing of the public sector in August, as well as changes in the level of sales prices and the balance of industrial orders according to the CBI.
There are also publications totals trade balance for August and Dynamics of exports and imports in Australia and Switzerland.
Australia is to publish an index of housing prices for the 2nd quarter of this year.
In the euro zone will be released indicator of consumer confidence for September.
In statistics from the United States will be represented by such factors as: a weekly index of retail sales " Red Book "in July house price index and manufacturing index from the Richmond Fed.
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