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Forex forecast for today 09/21/2015: greenbacks return loss! Strategy for today - short-term for the dollar
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/21/2015
The euro dollar in trading in Europe on Friday resumed growth and recorded a new high of 1.1460. Driver of growth in the euro against the dollar was the publication of the balance of payments showed an increase to the level of the budget surplus of 33.8 bn. Euros against 30.6 bln. In June. However, the tendency to fix failed. The market began to adjust greenbacks.
Previous drop in the dollar after the announcement of the Fed's decision was rather emotional and appeared excessive. Fears of the Fed as the world economy as a whole, not abolished the positive view on the prospects for the dollar market. On the contrary, the Fed concerns on global growth but stressed the degree of divergence between the strong US economy and the situation in the rest of the world. In this regard, the fall of the currency could not last long, and already at auction on Friday emotion retreated. The dollar began to be adjusted across the entire spectrum of the currency market, and paired with the Euro-currency, passing on the rise almost 200 points, reached the level of 1.1269, which is close and finished the trading session.
The euro dollar today expect continuation of decrease in quotations of the euro against the dollar to target levels 1.1216, 1.1150 and 1.11. We expect to complete the last level of correction and reversal of the euro to the dollar to rise to the previous local maximum of 1.1460 and higher.
Forex. Forecast GBP / USD (GBP / USD) as of today 09/21/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
Against the background of a completely empty economic calendar course of the pound / dollar in trading forex on Friday guided by the behavior of American and European currency dubbed the price dynamics. Attempting to restart the growth of quotations pounds more was not successful. Quotes managed to touch new highs at the 1.5657 price level, but rumors that the Fed after the Bank of England may also postpone raising interest rates, the rise was stopped, and the overall strengthening of the dollar on the entire range of the currency market the pair embarked on a decline. As a result, at the end of trading the pair GBP / USD has passed all the achievements and recorded daily low at around 1.5512, still feel the "bearish" pressure and the risk of further downward correction.
Pound Dollar today expect a short-term pullback pair of its previous decline and the rise of the British currency to the level of weekly and daily reversals 1.5565. Further forward to the resumption of a downward correction and reduction of the pair to target levels of 1.55, 1.5475 and 1.5450. In the future price dynamics pound after the completion of its downward correction we expect a new rise of the pair to the previous local maximum 1.5657.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/21/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
The Fed's decision not to raise interest rates has supported precious metals whose value at auction on Friday rose again. Moreover, the indecision of the American regulator only reinforced concerns of market participants about the state of the global economy. In this situation, the gold in the eyes of investors is becoming one of the few commodities that can get quite a strong long-term advantage.
Against this backdrop, the increased demand for the metal has allowed the "bulls" again raise quotes. As a result, the price of December gold futures on Friday rose to the level of 14.17 $ 1141.69 $ an ounce. Here, in anticipation of the weekend, the players started to fix the profit and close the deal to buy the metal, which caused a minor correction to the level of the cost of $ 1139.08 per ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level 1142.50 $ an ounce.
The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following price levels - $ 1148 and above, in the direction of $ 1150 and $ 1158 per ounce.
Immediate support for gold is located at the level of $ 1136 a day reversal. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1132, $ 1127, $ 1123 and $ 1117 per ounce.
Gold rate forecast for today expect gold prices to decline in the above target levels of support. Close to $ 1132 price level quotes metal may rise to resume the downtrend line (22 January this year), $ 1148 per ounce.However, if we manage to overcome the level of $ 1132 down and consolidate under it, in this case a decrease of metal will continue on.
Silver at auction on Friday under the influence of the same factors duplicated the price dynamics of gold. By the beginning of the American session the quotations of the metal on the level of the opening day rose 33 cents and reached a 4-week high of $ 15.42 per troy ounce. However, to stay at this level it failed. Correction of gold before the weekend caused a rollback of the metal, which cost almost returned to the level of the opening day, finished the trading session at a price level $ 15.14 per ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at $ 15.20 a day reversal. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the metal will rise to the price levels of $ 15.33, $ 15.42 and $ 15.48 per ounce.
Immediate support for the silver passes for $ 15.07 price level. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 14.94, $ 14.70 and 14.55 per ounce.
Forecast on silver also expect to reduce the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support and a possible pullback near the key level of $ 15 per ounce.
The economic calendar Monday, Japan celebrates the Day of the Elderly. Markets are closed, the statistics are not published.
The unit of economic statistics should pay attention to the August data volume of home sales in the secondary real estate market in the United States. Also of interest are the July change in the volume of wholesale trade in Canada and the speech of the Bank KanadyStivena runners.
UK is to publish in September house price index.
The European Central Bank will announce the weekly purchases of securities.
Germany will report on the producer price index for August and the German Central Bank The Bundesbank will publish a monthly report on the situation in the intervening period.
Switzerland will present the final balance of payment for the 2nd quarter and the statistical bulletin for September.
New Zealand will introduce an index of economic confidence of households in the 3rd quarter of this year. In addition, in the US and in France, this day will be held auctions for 3-, 6- and 12-month government debt.
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