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Forex forecast for today 09/18/2015: The Fed has raised and disappointed the market!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/18/2015
Yesterday's trading in Europe and Asia forex market carefully sold the dollar as weak data on US inflation strengthened expectations that the Fed will refrain from raising rates. Against this backdrop, investors closed long positions on the dollar, and the euro / dollar showed moderate growth, recording a session high of 1.1337.
Most participants in the forex market did not expect a rate hike, but almost all were counting on an aggressive rhetoric of the regulator in relation to monetary tightening and further Fed action. However, FOMC made with ultra-peaceful statements. Keeping rates unchanged, the members of the Operations Committee on the open market have stated that it is still not convinced that inflation starts its upward movement to the target level of 2%. Thus, concern about inflation trumped strength of the labor market and all the other positive factors. To ease the blow to some market expectations Janet Yellen added to the end of the press conference that escht ostattsya possibility of raising rates at the October meeting of the Federal Reserve. The market reacted accordingly. Players began to aggressively sell the dollar, which led to the strengthening of the position of the single European currency. The euro soared and the dollar at the close of trading amounted to 1.1441, rising at the same time (from the previous closing) by more than 150 points.
The euro dollar today suggest corrective pullback and the decline in the euro against the dollar from yesterday's local maximum, and then expect to try again to test customer euro reached a maximum of 1.1441, and in case of breakdown, continue to rise to the following target levels: 1.1465, 1.15 and 1.1537. If the sample does not take place, then the euro the dollar will resume its decline in the pair to the key support levels 1.13 and 1.12.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 09/18/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
Yesterday's trading in Europe rate GBP / USD returned to the highs of the previous day and continued to rise in the British currency, reacting to yield very positive statistics on the labor market. The decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, and an increase in average wage by 2.9% (the forecast of 2.5%) had a positive impact on the dynamics of the pound sterling exchange rate which rose again in yesterday's trading, registering an interim high of 1.5548. Further dynamics of the British currency has been linked to the Fed decision on rates.A weaker dollar over the entire spectrum of the currency market and the strengthening of competitive currency provoked "bulls" on the pound to resume buying a pair, the rate of which eventually broke the key resistance level of 1.55 and 1.56, test the new 3-week high of 1.5626 and ending trade little back to the price level of 1.5565 .
Pound Dollar today expect to complete the corrective decline and reversal of the British currency to rise to such target levels, such as: 1.5626, 1.5648, 1.5680, and 1.57. At this level, we expect a reversal in the next couple corrective decline.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/18/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today.
Pending the outcome of the Fed meeting on interest rates market participants continued to reduce the number of open positions on the purchase of gold. The course of the metal declined moderately by correcting the rapid growth of quotations of the previous day. However, the FOMC decision dramatically changed the situation on the market. Keeping rates unchanged and ultrasoft press conference Janet Yellen disappointed traders, and the dollar weakened across the spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Dollar against this background been selling, and competitive assets rushed up. From made in the first half of the day low $ 1115.27 quotes metal also soared, fixing the maximum level of recovery at the level of $ 1135.78, where he finished the trading session. As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the price level 1135.78 $ an ounce.The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following price levels - $ 1142.30 and higher towards $ 1150 and $ 1158 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of $ 1127 a day reversal. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1123, $ 1117 and $ 1110.60.
Gold forecast for today expect gold prices to decline in the above target levels of support.
Silver in yesterday's trading influenced by the same factors duplicated the price dynamics of gold and by the end of the day has risen in price on Wednesday's closing level ($ 14.90) by 36 cents to $ 15.26 price level per ounce. As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at $ 15.26 yesterday's high. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the metal will rise to the price levels of $ 15.48, $ 15.63 and $ 15.85 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver held by the level of $ 15.07 a day reversal. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels of $ 14.95, $ 14.70 and 14.60 per ounce.
Silver forecast for today expect to reduce the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
The economic calendar Friday, most attention will attract events such as the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy, the speech of the Reserve Bank of Canada Glenn Stevens, as well as the publication of the consumer price indices for August in Canada.
In addition, the unit of economic News of the day New Zealand is to publish a leading indicator for the labor market - the index of the number of vacancies in August, as well as an indicator of consumer confidence for September.
The European Central Bank will present the balance of the current account balance of payments for July.
The Bank of England will publish their comments on the market and the development of the monetary policy of the Q3.
And in economic statistics from the United States will be represented indexes lagged, coincident and leading economic indicators for August, and the net effect of household wealth for the 2nd quarter.
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