Main » 2015 » September » 15 » Forex forecast for today 09/15/2015: While waiting for the Fed decision greenback, sterling and the euro strengthens the position!
Forex forecast for today 09/15/2015: While waiting for the Fed decision greenback, sterling and the euro strengthens the position!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/15/2015
The main theme of this week is the upcoming FOMC decision according to the standard interest rate. Given that the forex market is still not decided on the most likely outcome of the meeting, investors continued to reduce the number of long positions in the US dollar. As a result, greenbacks during most of the day remained under "bearish" pressure exerting thereby supporting euro buyers .; 1.1373; 1.14 and above.
In general, trading in forex yesterday took place in a narrow price range. The economic calendar was empty, liquidity and dynamics of capital flows remained low, and the market hosted short-term speculators with small volumes of trade transactions. Amid expectations the publication of the results of the Fed meeting in the course of trading a positive report on the dynamics of industrial production in July, confirmed the recovery of the euro area economy, remained practically unnoticed. A small burst of trading activity was only able to test the range 1.1373 and 1.1283, and then immediately extinguished. As a result, the euro dollar closed the day trading a slight decrease in the price level 1.1315 (- 17 points).
The euro dollar today expect a short-term decline in the price quotations of the euro zone 1.1268 ÷ 1.1246, and then the reversal of the euro the dollar on the rise in the new cycle of its upward movement. Target elevation levels: 1.13, 1.1334, 1.1373, 1.14 and higher.
Forex. Forecast GBP / USD (GBP / USD) as of today 09/15/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
An empty economic calendar and the absence of catalysts of price movement in trading forex on Monday, and the failure of the pair GBP / USD once again overcome the resistance level of 1.5474, buyers provoked sterling to profit-taking and closing transactions for the purchase of a pound. Reducing the pressure of the bulls, in turn, has intensified vendors start selling off sterling pound dollar pair, whose rate of progress in Europe dropped to 1.5470 high level of 1.5371. Here on a slight pullback and the pair closed the trading session (1.5425), practically without changing their position compared to last week's closing level of 1.5424.
Today, there are interesting reports from the UK and may significantly alter the price dynamics of the pair Pound Dollar. The focus will be inflation data, which may give the market another reason to believe in a more aggressive attitude of the Bank of England. Rising inflation on the consumer price index, as well as a report on wages may convince investors that the Bank of England is ready to give up and move to stimulate the economy to raise interest rates.
Pound dollar today assume a continuation of the side of trade and the depreciation of the pound dollar price zone 1.5390 ÷ 1.5355. If this level (1.5355) is broken, and the sterling will be able to gain a foothold under him, then the decrease in quotations pound dollar continues - first towards the 50% Fibonacci level - 1.5316, and later to Fibonacci 61.8% level -1.5280. Further, the expected recovery of the pound and the dollar to rise to the following target levels: 1.5445, 1.5475, 1.55 and 1.5540.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/15/2015
XAU / USD, 4 hours.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today.
The cost of gold futures in trading on the first trading day of the week rose slightly, recovering the previous day's losses. Thus, before the Fed meeting on interest rates of gold continues to trade in a narrow sideways range. The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is very important for the future prospects of the gold price, and therefore investors do not want to risk opening a new deal prematurely with metal. While expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at the meeting, which will end on Thursday, supported by the price of gold from its monthly lows.
On the technical side of trade, the gold market remains "bearish". On the weekly and daily charts metal is trading below the 3-year downtrend. The prospect of a positive decision the Fed to raise interest rates sharply strengthen the position of the dollar and be a catalyst for sales of metal.
At the end of yesterday's trading price of gold rose $ 1.26 an ounce at the close of «Comex» amounted to $ 1108.88. As of this morning near term resistance for gold still goes through the week turn $ 1111 per ounce.The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following price levels - $ 1117, $ 1123 and $ 1126 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at the level of $ 1107 a day reversal.
If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1103, $ 1099 or less. In our forecast for Tuesday originally anticipated decrease of the metal, and then turn and follow the rising cost of gold to the above target levels of resistance.
Silver On Monday showed diagonally opposite trade and at the end of the day reduced their value to almost low last week. The daily loss amounted to 16 cents per ounce, and the price at the closing - $ 14.41 per troy ounce.As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at $ 14.45 a day reversal. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the metal will rise to the price levels of $ 14.51, $ 14.59 and $ 14.73 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver held by the previous local minimum of $ 14.27. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in the key level of $ 14 per ounce and lower.
In our forecast for silver also expect the resumption of growth in the value of the metal to the above target levels of resistance.
The economic statistics Tuesday, the focus of the market will be minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy and the Bank of Japan decision on the basic interest rate, comment on monetary policy and the data of annual growth of the monetary base. The changes are not expected to statutory rate will remain the same - less than 0.1%. In addition, a press conference the head of the Bank of Japan - Haruhiko Kuroda.
Of great interest are also the report of the Centre for European Economic Research ZEW institute on the index of sentiment in the business environment and the current situation in Germany, as well as the corresponding figures for the whole euro area in September.
In addition, highly significant data will be published in the UK. Among them, the August index of consumer and retail prices, indexes, purchasing and selling prices of producers, as well as indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators for July. And at the end of the day all attract the attention of investors on data from the US Retail Sales for August.
The eurozone will report on changes in the level of employment for the 2nd quarter and will present the totals of balance of foreign trade in July. In France, will be published index of consumer prices in August.
And the United States will block statistics such factors as: a weekly index of retail sales of "Red Book";manufacturing index Empire Manufacturing; change in the volume of industrial production and manufacturing production; capacity utilization for August; changes in the volume of reserves in commercial warehouses.
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