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Main » 2015 » November » 9 » Forex forecast for today 09.11.2015: NFP again caught traders by surprise!
14:36
Forex forecast for today 09.11.2015: NFP again caught traders by surprise!
 
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Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/11/2015

The report on the labor market at auction on Friday came as a shock to many economists. No one expected such indicators. Only one of 93 economists surveyed by «Bloomberg» count on a value above 220 000. However, the increase in the number of jobs in 271000 surpassed all even the most optimistic expectations. At the same time US unemployment rate fell again, and the data for October was 5%. 

 

 

 

The US Labor Department also reported that the hourly wage in the country increased by 2.5% and amounted to $ 25.20 in October. The result of the long-awaited report was the aggressive growth of the US currency across the board.  Euro \ dollar, in particular, fell to a new 7-month low, registering a decline of the base around 1.0705. Thus, the position of the US currency in the market is much stronger. In all likelihood, the new data finally convince the few skeptics who still cherished hopes for a postponement of rate increases and tighter monetary policy in the United States.

 

In our forecast for Monday we suppose - the resumption of the depreciation of the single European currency to the target levels of 1.07 and 1.0663. *** Near the latter level we expect a corrective pullback to the level of a pair of weekly reversal 1.0832 and possibly above a key resistance 1.09. Further, we expect the resumption of decline of the single currency to the level of 1.0663 and below.

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Forex. The forecast for the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Last week  the pound / dollar  has completed an aggressive fall: the first blow struck the national currency of the Bank of England Minutes, and Friday timid attempts to "bull" to stop the fall in the pair has finished a report on the US labor market. As a result, expectations of traders in the reversal of the price movement dissipated after the British regulator formed a signal that before the 2nd half of 2016 to wait for a rate hike is not necessary, as the US Federal Reserve, by contrast, left no doubt in raising the interest rate on dollar in December this year. Thus, the difference in the directions of the monetary policy was now once again speak speaker driver courses. As a result, aggressive sales pound against the US dollar did not allow the "bulls" to hold the position, and the Asian high 1.5218 pound \ dollar fell after the landslide falling major currencies across the spectrum of the foreign exchange market. At the end of the day falling of pair reached a new 6-month low at 1.5029 price level, which is close to and has completed a week-long trade.

In our current forecast of expected - a short-term pullback in the pair price zone 1.50 ÷ 1.4950. If the level of 1.4950 is broken and the currency will be able to gain a foothold under it, the pair will continue to decline further, to the following objectives - 1.4890; 1.4860 and 1.4830. Here we expect to turn and rise of the British currency towards the key resistance level of 1.51. *** If the break-down of the price level of 1.4950 will not take place,  the pound \ dollar  will start an upward movement to the above targets on the actual levels achieved.

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Forex. Gold rate forecast for today 09/11/2015

XAU / USD, 4:00.

Forex recommendations on gold and silver today:

 Gold trading on Friday struck after all assets whose prices are calculated in dollars, as the US currency reacted to the aggressive growth unexpectedly strong data on US labor market. Market reaction to the report was immediate. Metals prices fell. Gold collapsed in price by $ 23.25 to $ 1085.25 level per ounce and closed the week near the progress on reducing the minimum.

As of this morning near term resistance for zolotaprohodit in terms of a reversal day - $ 1095 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise to the metal target levels - $ 1099; $ 1106; I1118 $ 1109 $. Immediate support for gold settled at its previous local minimum - 1085 $. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1080; $ 1077 and $ 1071 per ounce.

In our forecast for Monday expect - turn and the rising cost of gold to the above target levels of resistance.

Forex. The forecast rate of silver today

XAU / USD, 4:00.

Silver at auction on Friday showed a similar trend, roll back to 5-week low. Under the influence of a strong report on the US employment and in anticipation of a December Fed rate hike, the dollar strengthened rapidly over the entire spectrum of financial assets, which caused the fall of the value of the metal on the 35 tsentovza ounce. In general, at the end of the day, silver futures for December delivery on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» fell to the level of $ 14.71 per troy ounce. 

As of this morning near term resistance for silver is held in terms of day reversal - $ 14.87 an ounce. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, followed by continued rise to the target level - $ 14.92; $ 15; $ 15.05 and $ 15.20 per ounce. Immediate support for serebraraspolozhilas at the previous local minimum - $ 14.70 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the following purposes: $ 14.60; $ 14.50 and $ 14.40 per ounce.

In our forecast for silver also expect - the resumption of growth in the value of silver to the above target levels of resistance.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Monday, investors will attract publication vGermanii totals of balance of trade, including trends in exports and imports, as well as the balance of the current account in September. 
Of great interest are also published in the euro area indicator of economic confidence of investors in November and economic survey of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In addition, you should pay attention to the publication in Japan of September data on the dynamics of the salary level.  
In other news - Australia will introduce an indicator of the number of vacancies oktyabr.Kanada publish the number of bookmarks of new foundations for housing under construction. And in the US statistics are presented - in the terms of the labor market and employment trends in October.  
Today will be a meeting of finance ministers of countries - members of the eurozone.

 


 

 

 

 

Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to customers to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material traders in developing their own forecasts. The company assumes no liability in any form, for any losses or other damages customers, direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of forecasts, presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.

 

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