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Forex forecast for today 09/11/2015: European Currency finish the week higher.
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/11/2015
The dollar fell in trading Thursday, and the euro rose again as conflicting economic data from the United States increased uncertainty about the probability of a rate hike at the meeting of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee US Federal Reserve).
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell last week, which is another good sign of the state of the labor market. At the same time, import prices last month fell sharply, the decline has been the strongest since January 2015 This shows that inflation in the US is still weak and need to raise interest rates to fight inflation, the Fed is not. In this regard, the course of Euro-currency rose again, and passing on the minimum level of 1.1171 in Europe, more than 120 items tested on the rise daily high at around 1.1295.
The euro dollar today in the forecast: expect continued growth in the euro dollar to the following target levels: 1.13, 1.1332, 1.1350 and 1.1385. As before, the downward movement of the pair can become relevant only in the event of a breakdown of a local minimum of the previous week 1.1087 and consolidation quotes below.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 09/11/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
The pound rose sharply in trading forex on Thursday in response to data on real estate prices. The report data showed accelerating growth in house prices from 7.9% to 9% year on year and became a catalyst for the initial rise of the pair. Further uphold the British pound had the results of the September meeting of the Bank of England, which has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% per annum, and did not change the amount of asset purchases 375 billion pounds (about 577 billion. Dollars). Published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England also did not bring any news, leaving the former distribution of votes of the members of the Committee on the key interest rate (8 - for the preservation of the former percent, 1 - for the increase to a level of 0.75%). As a result, at the end of trading session, participants agreed that the Bank remains on track to raise interest rates early next year and have begun together to buy the British currency. The pair against this background continued to grow, and passing on the rise from 1.5337 Asian low of about 140 points, recorded a new 2-week high of 1.5474.
Pound Dollar forecast for today assume the completion of lifting of pair price zone 1.5483 ÷ 1.55, and then the corrective pullback from the peak reached and the depreciation of the British currency to the target levels of 1.5434, 1.5396, 1.5373 and 1.5344.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/11/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today.
At the auction on Thursday, the price of gold continued to be adjusted upward after a decline to the eve of the 4-week low of $ 1101.16 per ounce. The driver of growth in the value of metal was the weakening of the dollar, after the data on import prices in the United States showed the strongest decline in prices since January. This was a sign that US inflation remains low, and hence the Fed at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy (Thursday next week) may leave interest rates unchanged. The possible transfer of the first Fed rate hike in September in December lowered the dollar and helped the "bulls" in gold to continue the correction.Nevertheless, yesterday's pullback has been quite moderate, and investors were cautious, waiting before the meeting of metal prices may fall even lower. As a result, on the day the price of December gold futures on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» increased by $ 8.87 to a level of $ 1114.95 per troy ounce, but only slightly passed the position before closing ($ 1110.33 per ounce).
As of this morning near term resistance for gold passes through the 55-day moving average of $ 1113 per ounce, hour timeframe. The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following price levels - $ 1117, $ 1123 and $ 1126 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located in the $ 1110 price level. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to $ 1101 price level and below.
Gold forecast for today expect a short-term decline, and then the resumption of growth in the value of the metal to the above target levels of resistance.
Silver in yesterday's trading showed multidirectional movement. Against the background of a weakening dollar quotations of the metal soared, recording daily high at around $ 14.86 per ounce. However, subsequent correction is quite positive US statistics pushed the prices to the zone of morning lows and finished the trading week on the price level of $ 14.61 a reversal.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver is located at the level of daylight reversal - $ 14.71. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, - the metal will rise to the price levels - $ 14.85, $ 15 and $ 15.25 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver held by the level of $ 14.61 weekly reversal. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in price levels - $ 14.54, $ 14.45 and $ 14.35 per ounce and lower.
The forecast for silver also expect a short-term decline, and then the resumption of growth in the value of the metal to the above target levels of resistance.
On the economic calendar, Friday the most attention attract statistics United States - producer price index for August, September index of leading indicators, a monthly report on the federal budget, as well as the September index of consumer sentiment, the assessment of current conditions and inflation expectations (for 1 year and 5-year-old period) from the University of Michigan.
In addition, the unit of economic news of the day the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will publish the size of the key refinancing rate (the current standard - 11%).
UK will report on the July change in the volume of construction, and present the results of the survey in relation to the expected inflation rate for 3rd quarter.
Germany is to publish the August index of consumer and wholesale prices.
France will report on the current account balance for July.
Japan will present business conditions index for large manufacturers, and New Zealand is to publish an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in August.
In the euro area will take place today meeting of finance ministers of countries - participants of the European Union and the speech of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi.
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