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Forex forecast for today 09.10.2015: FOMC again disappointed buyers bucks!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/10/2015
The day before, after the opening of trading on the forex traders began to reduce long positions on the dollar, as most market participants are convinced that the Fed before the end of the year will not raise rates amid slowing global economy and low inflation in the US.
That has allowed customers to continue the growth of quotations of the euro single European currency to a new weekly high of 1.1326. The momentum of growth has been so strong that the price movement of the pair ignored all the negative news flow that came from the euro area's leading economy - Germany. No message for damages of Deutsche Bank; no information about the largest (since 2009), the fall of exports; any reduction in the volume of industrial production and the revision of the forecast for a fall of GDP in 2016 (to 1.8% - from the preliminary assessment of - 2.1%); any decrease in the surplus balance of foreign trade - nothing negative impact on the mood of the players against the dollar to support the growth of the single European currency.Trying to "bears" to use the published minutes of the meeting of the ECB, which stated about the upcoming major expansion of financial incentives and the European economy has failed. EUR \ USD short-term fell to 1.1238, but was able to immediately recover the loss. Published then, at the end of trading, Minutes of the meeting FOMC, in general, did not bring anything new. Members noted that the conditions for a rate hike are met, however, considered reasonable once again to wait, pointing out the risks of weaker growth in inflation.However, it should be noted that in its decision the Fed has not raised any concerns about the slowdown in the labor market and, consequently, will not accept the weak data as a particularly alarming signal. Against this background, the pair soared to the level of 1.1327, but then corrected and closed the trading session at a price level 1.1275.
The euro dollar is suppose - the resumption of the depreciation of the single European currency to the price levels: 1.1270; 1.1245; 1.1220; 1.12; 1.1170 and possibly to 1.1150.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 09/10/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
Yesterday morning sterling moved with EUR \ US dollar, breaking the previous high and fixing the top ascent near the top of a 2-week range - 1.5371. The expectations of the outcome of the Bank of England and the simultaneous publication of the minutes of the meeting was supported by British buyers. As expected, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, and the volume of the asset purchase program at 375 billion. Pounds. Number of votes cast in favor of the preservation and increase of the key interest rate also has not changed. The ratio was 8 to 1. From the Minutes of the meeting it became clear that members of the Management Committee of monetary policy is still dissatisfied with the force of inflationary pressure, which is clearly indicative of a long period of ultra-low interest rates. This is almost confirmed and Governor of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, saying that he could not say exactly when the Bank to raise interest rates.Initial market reaction was a collapse of the British currency. Pound / dollar on reducing tested daily low at around 1.5260, but then, in anticipation of the publication of minutes of the Fed meeting, again began to grow, following the dynamics of the single European currency. As a result, the pound finished the day trading rising by fixing the closing price at the level of 1.5348.
Pound dollar today assume - the resumption of the downward correction of the pair to target levels: 1.5340;1.5320; 1.53; 1.5268 and possibly to 1.5235. Further, we expect the rise of the British currency in the direction of the previous local maximum of 1.5370 and above, the following objectives: 1.54 and 1.5435.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 09/10/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Forex recommendations on gold and silver today:
In Thursday trading in Asia the gold market observed profit, have a significant impact on the reduction of quotations of precious metal. Gold prices fell $ 9.60 to a level of $ 1136.57 an ounce. So bidders responded to the inability of the metal to overcome the previous highs and consolidate above the resistance level of $ 1150 per ounce. In addition, the pressure on the metal increased after the publication of data on the reduction in demand for gold in Turkey, the outflow of deposits from specialized ETFs for gold and yield strong economic statistics on unemployment in the US. However, the "bulls" in gold managed to stop the decline and resume growth of quotations on expectations the publication of minutes of the last Fed meeting. Initial market reaction to the published protocol, confirmed the probable transfer of higher interest rates on an uncertain future, it has allowed the "bulls" to recover losses and return to the level of $ 1150 per ounce, but stay here and continue to rise still failed. Hard resist sellers pushed the metal into the zone of minimum daily levels, and near which ended the trading session.
At present, the near term resistance for gold held by the level of daylight reversal - $ 1142.93 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance during the upward movement will continue to rise for the next metal target levels - $ 1148; $ 1153 and $ 1158 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located on the downtrend line on 01.22.2015 - $ 1139. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels - $ 1130; $ 1127 and $ 1123 per ounce.
Gold forecast for today assumed - attempt to "bull" to test yesterday's high level of $ 1151, and then - turn and reducing the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
On the eve of yesterday's trading exchange-traded funds in silver for the second time in a row registered a significant outflow of deposits (almost 54 tons plus 59 tons of the previous day). As a result, the volume of deposits for the first time since July 2013, dropped to less than 19 thousand. Tonnes. The announcement of this dramatically changed the dynamics of the price of the metal, which in the course of a collapse reached a 3-day low of $ 15.38, losing 69 cents on reducing per ounce. The attempt to "bull" to correct the situation made it possible to recover part of its losses by the end of the day to stabilize the value of the metal in the area of $ 15.68 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver settled at $ 15.87 price level. If resumed the upward movement, and this resistance is broken, the metal may test the previous local maximum - $ 16.10, and then, after the break - the next target level - $ 16.67 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver passes on price level - $ 15.56 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - continue to decline further, to the next level - $ 15.38; $ 15.28 and $ 15 an ounce.
Silver today expect - an attempt to "bull" to test the level of $ 15.84 yesterday's high, and then - turn and reducing the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
The economic calendar Friday, the most interesting are the data from the Canadian Labour figures, including - changes in the number of employees; the unemployment rate (previous rate - 7%) and the proportion of the economically active population in September.
Among other indicators - Australia is to publish the August change in the volume of mortgage and commercial lending, as well as the dynamics of the total volume of loans.
France will report on the dynamics of industrial production and the volume of production of processing industry and the total balance of the state budget in August.
Britain will publish changes in the volume of construction and the total trade balance for August.
In US statistics will be presented - the indices of export and import prices; changes in the volume of wholesale trade and the volume of stocks at the warehouses of wholesale trade. It is worth noting also the beginning of the International Monetary Fund and the speech of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi.
Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to customers to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material traders in developing their own forecasts. The company assumes no liability in any form, for any losses or other damages customers, direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of forecasts, presented on our website. Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.