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Main » 2016 » May » 9 » Forex forecast for today 09/05/2016 Euro and Pound: Rally fizzles. Bearish trend!
Forex forecast for today 09/05/2016 Euro and Pound: Rally fizzles. Bearish trend!



Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 09/05/2016

In anticipation of the publication of the main report on employment in the US currency trading on Friday for a couple of euro / dollar held in a narrow price range near the level of 1.1405 the previous day close. 



Investors do not want to risk, because on the eve of the four heads of the Federal Reserve Banks of the United States made it clear that does not exclude the possibility of lifting the base interest rate at the June meeting.Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Ballard, as well as the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dallas and Atlanta - John Williams, Robert Kaplan and Dennis Lockhart - in his speech noted that the US Central Bank rate decision will depend on the incoming statistical data. Therefore, all the attention focused on the market waiting for the report. However, published data were contradictory. While overall employment growth rate in April fell short of expectations (160 thousand. Against the forecast of 203 thousand.), And for the last two months of data was a revision down rate of wage growth was quite strong in the non-agricultural sector (2.5% vs. 2.3% forecast). Hybrid was also the market reaction. In the initial report data the dollar weakened sharply, while the euro shot up to the level of 1.1478, but the published data on wages there and then returned to the quote currency in the previous range, ending the trading session slightly in the red 1.1401.



Euro dollar exchange rate today assume the completion of the current euro correction in the price zone 1.1465 ÷ 1.1535, and then the resumption of reduction of quotations of European currency in the following target levels: 1.1385; 1.1350; 1.13.

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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 09/05/2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

In the forex trading on Friday amid an empty economic calendar, the British currencies remained  the drivers for the movement. After the release on the eve of and during the weekly trading extremely weak business activity data in all sectors of the UK economy, market sentiment towards the sterling remained negative. Under the influence of pessimism pairs course slowly crawled down by duplicating the dynamics of the single European currency and after the dual report on employment in the US permanently stuck in a narrow price range near the weekly low 1.4420.

Pound Dollar today expect a short-term pullback from the previous decline and the rise of the pair to target levels: 1.4460; 1.4486; 1.45; 1.4536 and possibly to 1.4563. Near the last price levels expect a reversal of the British currency, and the resumption of the correction of decrease in pair in the direction of the previous local minimum 1.4414 and below.

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Forex. Gold price forecast for today 05/09/2016

XAU / USD, for 4 hours.


The cost of the June futures on gold at the auction on Friday resumed growth in anticipation of the main report on US employment. The main driver of lifting metal steel negative expectations on the labor market and the weakening dollar during the auctions. Against this background, the cost of the precious metal in the course of trading increased by $ 20.66, and at the close of the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» amounted to $ 1287.52 per troy ounce.

As of this morning near significant resistance for gold is on the price level - $ 1292 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes: - 1297 $; $ 1303 and $ 1308 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located at weekly and daily reversals - $ 1286 per ounce. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease in metal price levels: $ 1280; 1272 $ and 1267 $ per troy ounce.

Gold forecast for today, we assume a short-term rise, and then the resumption of reducing the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.



Forex. news

The economic calendar Monday - the focus of investors will attract the next meeting of the Eurogroup (the finance ministers of the EU member states, the EU Commissioner and President of the European Central Bank).Considerable interest will also published in Germany, data on the volume of orders in industry in March;Switzerland - the consumer price index for April, while in the euro area - an indicator of economic confidence in May. Among the other news of the day - Australia will present the April index of the number of vacancies for employment. Japan is to publish the March data on the level of remuneration; the real incomes of the working population and the April consumer confidence indicator. The Bank of Japan publishes Minutes of the last meeting on monetary policy. In the UK, will be released April index of housing prices. Canada will report on the number of bookmarks of new foundations, and in the US will be published - April index of conditions in the labor market.



Presented forecasts, the result of an analytical assessment of the situation on the currency market. Charts and comments to the forecasts, in any case, are not recommendations to clients to open transactions and are presented only as an analytical and comparative material in the development of its own traders forecasts. The company assumes no liability, in any form, for any loss or damage to other types of clients, whether direct or indirect, that may arise in the case of projections presented on our website.Traders shall bear full responsibility for the results of their work.



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