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Main » 2016 » July » 20 » Forex forecast for today 07/21/2016: ECB in the spotlight!
Forex forecast for today 07/21/2016: ECB in the spotlight!



Weather forex July 21, 2016

The main forex news today:

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade, taking into account the cost of fuel for June (the previous value of 0.9% m / m; the forecast -0.4% m / m).

15.30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB Press Conference.

15.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in July (previous value of 254K; 271K forecast).

17:00 MSK. USA: Sales of housing in the secondary market in June (the previous value of -1.8% m / m; the forecast -1.3% m / m).


Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar today EUR / USD 21.07.2016

The outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy today in the main event dlch investors euros. Brexit led many market participants say that the regulator will launch a new stimulus in the near future.



On the debt market the dynamics of trading indicates that today the changes probably will not: the yield of German 2-year government bonds, which reflects investors' expectations for ECB monetary policy, shows the decline in the last day of the week. While today may be hints of future stimulus package, since besides Brexit there is another problem. Despite low interest rates, growth in bank lending and an increase in energy costs - inflation is still at a low level. For the euro is a signal to lower prices. In the US, data on new home sales in the secondary market on the background of the rising trend in the labor market today can please their investors positive. Employment and incomes are increasing, which contributes to the growth of consumer spending, including the real estate market. This week came the positive reports on the construction sector and, most likely, this trend will be observed today. 


Euro / dollar Recommendations: Players on the euro with the dollar today in the forex market is a pair of EUR / USD Sell the growth of quotations to 1.1030 / 1.1070 and take profit at the level of 1.0950.



Forex forecast GBP / USD GBP / USD today 21/07/2016


Players for the sterling to the dollar today in the morning it is worth paying attention to the report on retail sales in the UK in June. Positive data on the labor market today allow us to count on the data output bit better median forecasts that will support the British currency. Another positive factor for the pound - is Mario Draghi negative comments about the prospects for the development of the European economy and reducing the EGB / GBP cross rate that will reflect positively on the value of the pair GBP / USD. However, there is also a risk factor for the upward trend. On the eve of the US Department of Energy has reported again an increase in the volume of crude oil, as well as increase in gasoline stocks. In this regard, investors may again start to sell oil, after yesterday's correction, which will put pressure on the British currency. 


Pound / Dollar recommendations: Traders pound with greenbacks today worth waiting lateral trade foreign exchange market in a range of 1.3120 -1.3260.



Forex forecast of the dollar, the yen today USD / JPY 21.07.2016


As the dollar yen pair today mixed news background. On the one hand, the S & P500 storm new heights after a series of corporate releases in the second quarter, which is a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.Corporate profits are falling, but the totals come out better-kosnensus forecasts that encourage investors to build long positions. This trend is more akin to euphoria than a deliberate action. Euphoria ends sooner or later a strong drop in prices. On the other hand, the VIX index indicates the dynamics of the upcoming reversal that traditionally coincides with the correction in global equity markets.


Dollar / yen recommendations: Players on the pair USD / JPY today is waiting flat is in the range of 106.20 -107.30.





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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