Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 06/07/2016
On Monday the dollar was not able to find the strength to correct after Friday's rout, as a result of which he fell back to 3-week lows. This currency remained stable, as market participants awaited the speech of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. Attempts to "bull" to use the positive output of the June index of confidence of European investors and to resume against this background that an upward movement, as well as attempts of "bears" to activate corrective weakness pair after the negative data in Germany April industrial orders were unsuccessful.
Speech Janet Yellen also did not change the lateral dynamics of the pair. In her remarks she commended the state of the labor market and said that we should not focus on the failure of one month. At the same time, Ms. Yellen confirmed that a further gradual increase in the interest rate on federal assets would be appropriate.Against this background, the course of the euro / dollar quickly turned from the initial reduction and minimum daily level of 1.1325, tested on the rise a new 3-week high at around 1.1392. It is also worth noting that the price dynamics in the pairs remained quite moderate and finished the trading session near the level of previous day's close at 1.1355 during the day.
The euro dollar today expect the resumption of the corrective pullback pair and the depreciation of the single European currency to the following target levels: 1.1336, 1.1253 and 1.13,1.1278. At the last level we expect the resumption of the upward movement of the pair to the 1.1373 previous high.
Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 06/07/2016
On Monday Pound again attracted the market's attention. Immediate results of public opinion polls on the upcoming referendum, the British currency has fallen off quotes for a new 3-week low 1.4350. It is learned that in recent days the number of supporters of the UK exit from EU staff has increased dramatically. According to another survey of daily newspaper «Daily Telegraph» reported that 69% of its subscribers will vote for such an outcome of the referendum.
Nevertheless, in spite of the result, the pair exchange rate by the end of the day managed to completely restore its original position and lock the closing price at 1.4472 reached maximum. The currency was unable to hold on minimum levels as investors considered them very attractive for opening long positions. Apparently, market participants no longer perceive a possible way out of the EU countries is so tragic and do not support the new sales below the lows reached. Consequently, we can speak of a change of price trends and strengthen the market, "bullish" sentiment against the British pound.
Pound Dollar in the forecast for today expect a new attempt to "bull" to resume an upward trend the pair. If this can be overcome on the rise the previous local maximum of 1.4580 and consolidate above it, then the growth of the British currency will continue to price zone 1.46 ÷ 1.4635. Here we expect a reversal and decline of the pair to target levels such as: 1.45, 1.4465, 1.4410 and 1.4380.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold today
The value of gold on Monday continued to rise moderately on the back of weak US employment data. Published on Friday, the US labor market indicators were mixed. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in May (from 5% - in April), but the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors thus increased by only 38 thousand, against the expected 159,000.
After the release of such data, many investors no longer expect the introduction of control measures to tighten monetary policy in the near future. Against this background, the cost of metal at yesterday's auction set a new maximum of $ 1248.53 per ounce and further entrenched near it, forming a narrow sideways range and saving the likelihood of further metal growth.
As of this morning near significant resistance for gold remains on the price level of $ 1255 per ounce.
The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes - 1261 $, 1265 $ and 1270 $ per ounce.
Immediate support for the gold price has settled at the level of $ 1238. If it is passed, in which case it will be possible further reduction of the metal to the target levels of $ 1229, $ 1224 and $ 1217 per troy ounce.
Gold forecast for today expect the resumption of growth in the cost of metal to the target levels of $ 1255, $ 1261, and possibly to $ 1265 per troy ounce. Here we expect a reversal of quotations and the depreciation of the gold to the above targeted levels of support.
Forex. The forecast for oil (WTI) for today.
Oil prices on Monday again, getting to the key resistance level of $ 50 per barrel. Driver recovery of oil prices was a statement by the Chairman of the Department of Economic Development, Abu Dhabi Majid Ali Al Mansouri, who in an interview with «Bloomberg» has sounded an optimistic forecast estimates, suggesting that prices could rise this year to a level of $ 60 per barrel.
In the course of trading in the short term, oil prices fell after the speech the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, who, despite Friday's employment data failure in the US is still not ruled out the probability of an increase in the near future the interest rate on federal assets.
In addition, the oil pressure factors are published data the number of active drilling rigs (from Baker Hughes) and an increase in the volume of oil exports by almost all the leading oil exporters.
As a result, on yesterday's price of July futures for crude oil WTIna «NYMEX» rose 87 cents to $ 49.70 a barrel.The August futures for Brent crude rose 69 cents to the level of 50.51 $ per barrel.
Oil is forecast for today we expect a reversal of quotations of oil and reduce its value to the following target levels: $ 49.43, $ 49.25, $ 49, $ 48.87 or less, the next significant support level of $ 48.18 per barrel.
The economic calendar on Tuesday in the center of market attention will be the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the basic interest rate and the accompanying statement to the decision. The changes are not expected, the rate will be kept unchanged at 2%.
Considerable interest will also published in Germany in April the volume of data in industrial production and GDP growth in the volumes of the euro area in the 1st quarter of 2016.
Australia will publish the May index of business activity in the construction sector.
Japan is to publish the April index of leading economic indicators.
UK retail sales monitor will present in May and the house price index.
France on this day will report on the outcome indicators of the balance of foreign trade and balance of the state budget for April.
Switzerland publishes May's volume of foreign exchange reserves.
Canada is to publish the May index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
In the US, statistics will be released quarterly changes of labor productivity and labor cost for the 1st quarter of this year.
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