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Main » 2016 » June » 17 » Forex forecast for today 06/17/2016: greenbacks close the week in positive territory!
Forex forecast for today 06/17/2016: greenbacks close the week in positive territory!



Forecast June 17, 2016

The main forex news today:

15.30 MSK. USA: The volume of building permits issued in May (the previous value of 3.6% m / m forecast 1.8% m / m).

Forex forecast euro dollar EUR / USD as of today June 17, 2016

During the day, we should expect the development of the downward trend. The United States this week, traders are pleased positive macroeconomic statistics. On the eve of published data on inflation and balance of payments.Index core CPI for 6 consecutive months is higher than 2% y / y, the last time such a trend was observed four years ago. Inflationary pressure begins to increase, which is a signal for the Fed.



You can not ignore the release of the balance of payments: the figure for the first quarter of this year was better than the consensus forecast, and the value for the fourth quarter of 2015 was revised in a positive direction. Of the important news today should only highlight the report on the number of building permits issued in the United States in May. The dynamics of the labor market (reduction of unemployment and the growth of average earnings) can expect to yield positive data that support the demand for the US dollar. Another negative factor for the euro - is the stabilization of the stock markets. After the fall of quotations finished the day in the "green zone" leading US stock indices over the last five trading days on Thursday, which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. However, the strong decrease in quotations EUR / USD today, do not expect, because the credit markets the yield on 10-year government bonds in Germany is growing in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets. 


EUR / USD recommendation: Players euro in tandem with the US currency today is on course to sell paruSell rise to 1.1270 / 1.1310 and goals at the level of 1.1215.


Forex forecast for the pound dollar GBP / USD today 17/06/2016

On the eve of investors ignored positive data on retail sales in the UK in May, which indicates the presence of strong sellers in the currency pair. Sales in the retail sector rose by 6% y / y, however, the British currency showed quite modest growth for half an hour, after which we again saw a downtrend. Once the market ignores the positive background, it means traders with large capital, actively selling the pound sterling and, in this regard, we need to join them. Bank of England meeting on monetary policy brought no surprises: the discount rate was left unchanged at the monetary authorities once again talked about the danger of leaving the UK from the ES Brexit still is the most urgent issue for the participants of the currency market, which is used either the slightest reason for the British currency sales. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the oil market: sales of "black gold" amplified that is traditionally negative for the British currency. Also on the eve of oil sales under the wave hit and metals, which also has a positive impact on the US currency. 


GBP / USD recommendation: Traders pound paired with greenbacks today is selling paruSell on the growth of quotations to 1.4270 / 1.4320 and take profit at the level of 1.4150.


Forex forecast the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 06/17/2016

Carefully follow the fluctuations in the market, including fluctuations in the yen and are always ready to take additional measures if necessary, "- said the head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Kuroda at yesterday's meeting of the monetary regulator. In general, this necessity has occurred since the beginning of this year, the yen strengthened against the dollar by 13.4%, which will have a negative impact on economic growth in the second half of this year. The high rate is not just a negative impact on exporters, and with a time lag. But the Bank of Japan does not want to rush and wants to wait for the outcome of the referendum in the UK on 23 June. If Brexit sell risky assets has been increasing again and the pair USD / JPY falls below 100.00. And here, in my opinion, the Japanese monetary control will be on stage. In case of absence Brexit the Bank of Japan will continue to talk about that now should not introduce new measures and the need to be patient and wait until the January further easing of monetary policy will give a strong effect. Fear index S & P 500 VIX eve showed a decline of 3.5%, which indicates a profit on short positions before the weekend. In this connection, we can expect the depreciation of the yen as a funding currency in the carry trade №1 operations. 

USD / JPY recommendations: traders on the dollar against the yen is worth buying a pair Buy's reduction of quotations to 104.10 / 103.70 and recorded a profit at the level of 105.00.


Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »


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