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Main » 2016 » June » 13 » Forex forecast for today 06/13/2016: Oil Buyers took a break!
Forex forecast for today 06/13/2016: Oil Buyers took a break!



Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today June 13, 2016

In the forex in the morning on Friday, the euro buyers attempted to regain their former positions, but failed. Already at the level of 1.1321, the upward momentum has been lost, but quotes the European currency moved in a steady downward correction mode. By the end of the day EUR \ USD broke through key support level of 1.13, and recorded a closing week price level 1.1250.



The tone in the pair still defines the dynamics of the US dollar, preventing the further strengthening of the euro.However, we do not expect a significant reduction, as the closest key risk factor for the euro / dollar and world markets as a whole will be a forthcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Expectations of this event and the fear of "soft" control rhetoric will constrain efforts to increase the US currency. 

The euro dollar forecast for today, we assume - the completion of the correction of decrease in pair price zone 1.1216 ÷ 1.1175. Further, we expect the resumption of the upward movement of the rate of the single European currency to the target levels: 1.12; 1.13 and 1.1330.


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Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today July 13, 2016

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

On Friday morning, the British «The Independent» published the results of a new poll that just shocked the market: 55% of respondents were in favor of the UK out of the EU staff, 45% are opposed. According to the newspaper, a 10% gap between the British, who want to leave the EU, and their opponents is the highest ever annual history of such statistics. British Pound immediately after the message came under serious selling pressure. The rate of national currency fell by the end of the day tested on reducing the 8-week low 1.4178.Thus, the volatility of the pair pound \ dollar grows (and for the sixth week in a row), reaching the highest level in seven years. It seems that the risks "Brekzita" is still not fully priced in, and it increases the likelihood of a further decrease in pair. 

Pound Dollar forecast for today assume - corrective pullback pair from its previous decline and the rise of the British currency quotations to the target levels of 1.43 and 1.4363. Here we expect to turn a pair of a further decline to the previous local minimum of 1.4178 and below.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold to date June 13, 2016

XAU \ USD, 4:00.

Prices for gold in Friday trading shifted from corrective decline to positive dynamics on the background of growing demand for safer assets ahead of the upcoming next week's meeting of the Central Bank of Japan, Switzerland, England and the US Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, June 15, we will know the decision of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and on Thursday will be held once in three sessions. The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will determine its monetary policy and guidelines of interest rates in the near term. According to forecasts, the market does not expect any change in the basic parameters of the monetary policy and the attention of traders will be focused mainly on the regulatory rhetoric statements on the results of the meetings. Against this backdrop, investors are trying not to take risky positions, transferring the investment in the purchase of more reliable assets, which traditionally refers gold. 

At the end of trading on Friday, the price of August futures for gold on the New York Stock Exchange «Comex» rose $ 7.90, to the level of $ 1273.52 per troy ounce. As of this morning near significant resistance for gold is at the level of the previous local maximum - $ 1278 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes - $ 1284; $ 1288 and $ 1295 per ounce.Immediate support for gold is located at the level of the daily rotation - $ 1272. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease the metal target levels: $ 1265; $ 1262 and $ 1255 per troy ounce. 

Gold today forecast assume - the completion of the upward movement of gold close to the current price levels and quotations to turn metal to fall to the levels of daily and weekly turns $ 1272 and $ 1262 per ounce. If we can push this last level and gain a foothold below the metal reduction will continue in a significant level of support - $ 1255 per troy ounce.

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Forex. The forecast for oil (WTI) for today.

OIL WTI, for 1 hour.

The cost of oil futures fell on Friday below $ 49 a barrel as traders increased dramatically among fears that the recent rise in oil prices could cause an increase in oil production. And, indeed, the most active price cuts began after weekly data on the number of active rigs in the US from «Baker Hughes». At this time, the number of drilling for oil has grown to 328, and it was the second week of growth of this indicator. 

Given that oil prices have recently reached the level at which the drilling becomes attractive in terms of profit, the majority of the market participants are now considered that the amount of active drilling may continue to increase further. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in the volume of US oil production and become a negative factor for the recovery of its cost.  Against this backdrop, the fall in prices, which began the day before, continued. This additional pressure on prices factor was the strengthening of the dollar and the negative attitude of the financial markets before the Fed meeting next week.  As a result of the trading session, the price of July futures for WTI crude oil on the «NYMEX» decreased by 1.53 $ to the level of 48.88 $ a barrel. The August futures on crude oil «Brent» down on the day at $ 1.41, up to the level of $ 50.37 per barrel. 


Crude oil is now forecast for WTI forward - the completion of the current decline in prices, and the rise of a corrective pullback in oil quotations target levels: $ 49.00; $ 49.45; $ 49.74 and possibly to $ 50 a barrel. Near this level we expect a reversal of price movements and the resumption of the downward movement of oil.

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Forex. news

The economic calendar Monday - the focus of investors will attract Chinese data on changes in the volume of industrial production, retail trade volume and the volume of investment in fixed assets in May.  
A substantial interest will also cause the publication in Japan of the index of economic sentiment among large manufacturers for the 2nd quarter and the April index leading indicators -. UK  
Australia celebrates - Queen's Birthday. The regional market is closed, the statistics will not be published.

For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "" under "Research". We wish you a successful and profitable trades in the Forex market!


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