Forecast June 6, 2016
Top Stories traders today:
19.30 MSK. US: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech.
Forex. The forecast rate of EPO to the dollar EUR / USD today 06/06/2016
Friday's statistics from the United States has presented many surprises. First, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, which is the lowest value since November 2007.
Thus, the rate returned to pre-crisis level. And this level of unemployment the Fed had forecast at the end of 2016 - ahead of the curve was 6 months. Second, the end of May was recorded growth of average earnings by 2.5% y / y to $ 0.05 / hour. The total value, though coincided with market expectations, but nevertheless along with a reduction in the unemployment rate points to the inflation rate, which is a signal for the FOMC. Third, the negative trade balance amounted to 37.4 billion. Dollars at the end of April, with the consensus forecast of 41.5 billion. Dollars. In the first four month deficit totaled 165.78 billion. Dollars, which is 6.7% lower than a year earlier. Even in prosperous 2014, when the observed acceleration of economic growth, this figure was at 169.69 billion. Dollars. Thus, it is too early to bury the US economy. However, all this positive crossed Non-Farm, which came out terribly weak indicator. Changing the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector was only 38 thousand. Such low market numbers not seen since the fall of 2010 and of course we saw the sales of the US currency. What awaits us in the near future? Now investors disillusioned with the data on the Non-Farm and now few expect a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at the summer meetings. In the short term the dollar will be sold. However, as mentioned earlier - to bury the US economy is still too early. Important macroeconomic indicators are still positive and there will be key inflation data for May, which will be published in the middle of the month. If this release will be positive - the market will again be fascinated by the dollar. In the credit markets on Friday, the yield on 10-year German government bonds increased significantly in relation to their counterparts in the US and the UK, which increases the attractiveness of investment in European assets.However, there is also a negative factor for the euro - it is the demand for risky assets. Investors do not expect a rate hike at the June meeting of the FED, which may allow the S & P500 to reach a new historical maximum in the current month.
EUR / USD recommendation today: Traders in the euro with the American today should not expect sideways trading within the range 1.1300 -1.1410.
Forex. Forecast GBP / USD GBP / USD today 06/06/2016
On Friday, in addition to the release of the labor market, they were also published reports on business activity in the UK and the US service sector. The first indicator is pleased investors, an increase of 1.2% compared with the previous month. Data from the United States on the other hand, disappointed traders: the PMI indices, new orders, exports, employment showed a decline. PMI fell to the lowest level since February, 2014. The only thing that pleased - this price component, which increased by 2.2% to a mark of 55.6. Nine sectors reported price increases, four industry to reduce prices. Thus, the differential PMI indices of Great Britain and the United States on the results of May changed its vector and widened in favor of the former, which is a short-term positive for the British currency. On the bond market the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is increasing in relation to their counterparts in the US, but is reduced to German bonds. In this regard, the pound sterling can not count on the strong support from the credit markets. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the oil market: negative Friday's release of the Baker Hughes in the number of drilling rigs operating may trigger a downward correction, which is traditionally negative for the British currency. Thus, the situation in the currency pair looks confusing: and to buy early and sell signals are also there. In this regard, I recommend to wait for the closing of today's trading day, and then again to make the forecast on the basis of new factors.
GBP / USD recommendation today: Players with greenbacks a pound today is worth waiting to the flat trading within the range 1.4450 -1.4570.
Forex. The forecast of the dollar against the yen USD / JPY today 06/06/2016
The course of trading today will be determined by the dynamics of the debt and the commodity market. The first sends a signal to the market for the bears: Friday differential yields on government bonds USA and Japan greatly reduced, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in US assets. As for the stock market, then you can expect a predominance of bullish sentiment for two reasons. After Friday's release on the labor market the yield of US Treasury bonds fell strongly, that traditionally has a positive impact on the stock market. Second, the fear of the index S & P 500 VIX dropped to the lowest level since April 20, which indicates an increase in "risk appetite".
USD / JPY recommendations for today: traders on the dollar against the yen in the forex trading is to buy a pair Buy on lowering prices to levels 106.40 / 106.00 and purpose at the level of 107.50.
Analyst « FreshForex »