Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 06/04/2016
Currency pair EUR / USD in the previous trading session, behaved quite discreetly, consolidated in the range 1.1360 - 1.1410. The US dollar came under heavy pressure in recent weeks following a statement by ECB President Mario Draghi to limit opportunities to reduce interest rates. At the same time, inflation in the euro area came out better than expected.
US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen in the face, on the other hand, questioned the prospect of tightening control policy in June this year. Against this backdrop, the euro reached a level of 1.1436 - the highest since October 2015, but the employment data in the US non-farm sector (NFP) returned interest in dollar purchases.
On Tuesday the euro has not kept the values above hour moving average, and down below the 1.1380 to 1.1345, where the local level of support. The trigger for the euro served as a negative sales statistics PMI index of business activity in the services sector for selected countries - members of the European Union and for the euro area as a whole.
In the future, the euro / dollar, investors should pay attention to a number of risk factors, which are still not fully reflected in the price. In addition to the signals from the US and EU regulators on the dynamics of the euro could affect the growth of tension around the exit of Britain from the European Union structure. Exiting the community and have a negative impact on the EU economy.
The second important topic could soon become a complication of relations between the IMF, Germany and Greece as we approach the date of payment of the loan to 2.2 billion. Euros, which Greece must repay before July 20.
Prior to the April meeting of the Federal Reserve by the euro / dollar can be expected to save the corridor of price fluctuations within the meaning of 1.1150 - 1.1430.
At the moment, the euro is trading near the upper end of the range, and can be considered medium-term sales with the opening of protective orders above 1.1430 and objectives at levels 1.1300 and 1.1250.
For items with a shorter period should pay attention to the fundamental news. Today, there are oil reserves, which are expected to show growth, which could negatively affect the dollar and provide support to customers Euros.
At 21:00 Moscow time, it will also be published the minutes of the US FOMC, which may contain comments to the last meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee. Investors are once again re-evaluate the risk of slowing down policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. And it will also give rise to the strengthening of the euro kdollaru. Nearest resistance levels are located at the level of 1.1410.
Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound to dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 04/06/2016
The British pound remained under pressure after the release of the employment report in the US non-farm sector, which showed an increase of 215,000 jobs in the US economy in March.
The pair GBP / USD fell from 1.4340 to 1.4170 values, where the level of support of 28 March. A temporary rebound from the lows was due to technical reasons and high oversold sterling. However, yesterday there were no fundamental factors that might be in the way of resuming the descent.
British exit from the EU risks a few months will keep investors from making decisions in favor of the British currency. Under these conditions, we can only rely on the technical picture, which is on the daily chart shows the resulting trading range 1.4050 - 1.4500, within which most likely will stay the course of the currency pair.
As we move to the bottom border intraday corridor can expect a small correction on local support levels 1.4115 and 1.4065. The picture may change in favor of the pound today against the backdrop of statistics on stocks of crude oil and the US FOMC protocol publication.
The dollar may slow the rate of growth if oil quotations will continue to decline, calling into question the recovery in the US energy sector.
Comments to the last Fed meeting may also bring new data on the mood of the regulator with respect to interest rate and evaluate the rate of economic growth this year. The signal for the reversal of the pair GBP / USD will be binding quotes above 1.4200 level. In this case, one can consider opening short positions with the targets of the purchase of 1.4265 and 1.4315.
Forex. Gold price forecast for today 06/04/2016
Rate of gold this week regained lost after the release of positive statistics on the US labor market position, showing an increase from $ 1215 values to 1235 $ per troy ounce.
On the daily chart shows that the price of the precious metal were fixed in the range of 1205 $ -1275 $, in which will most likely be in quotes to the receipt of new macro-economic factors.
The dollar increase was due to the US economic recovery. Her strengthening increases the chances of raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve meeting in June.
Otherwise, when you receive the weak fundamentals, investors will increase uncertainty in the Fed's ability to control the situation with the risk of a recession in the US economy.
Thus, before the meeting of 26-27 April should closely monitor incoming information. The catalyst for the movement may be a report of the last meeting of the Fed, which will serve as a starting point for the formation of a new trend in the gold market.
Today, we pay attention traders close to the current rate of support level at around $ 1220 and $ 1215, and the strong level of demand from 1208 $. The resumption of growth of quotations will meet resistance at 1235 $, 1240 $ and 1243 $.
Forex. Forecast Silver today 06.04.2016
In the silver market reaction to positive US employment data was stronger than gold. Quotes on the precious metal plummeted from $ 15.30 to $ 14.80. From the latter supported by buyers price, returning it to the round marks above $ 15.00 levels.
The medium-term picture favors the growth of quotations of silver. On the daily chart we can note that the quotes are traded in the last months of the uplink. Its upper border formed by the local maxima of 11 February and 18 March, and the lower - lows on February 29 and April 1. The proximity of the current rate to the lower border gives reason to expect support demand at levels below $ 15.00 and the price recovery in the range of $ 15.50 $ -15.80.
In the center of market attention will be the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Fed's monetary policy.
China will publish the March index of business activity in the services sector and the composite activity index.
In Germany there are the February data of the dynamics of industrial production and the March index of business activity in the construction industry.
Japan is to publish the February index of leading and coincident economic indicators.
The euro zone, Germany, France and Italy will present the March index of business activity for the retail sector.
UK will report on the volume of loans in the 4th quarter.
In Canada, released the March index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
In the US, statistics will be published index of mortgage lending in April, as well as data in gasoline inventories, crude oil and distillate from the US Department of Energy.
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