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Main » 2016 » June » 2 » Forex forecast for today 06/02/2016: OPEC and the European Central Bank will determine the dynamics of the currency market today!
Forex forecast for today 06/02/2016: OPEC and the European Central Bank will determine the dynamics of the currency market today!



Forex. The forecast for the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today

After 4 weeks of the fall from the highest point of the year 1.1615 EUR \ USD tried this week to push off from the key support level of 1.11, and begin to restore the loss.



 There is quite difficult, because the dollar over the past month increased significantly across the board, with the main driver of lifting the US currency during this period was the change of sentiment in the US Federal Reserve, where even Janet Yellen, known for his "dovish" spirit, considers it possible to increase rates in the coming months. Nevertheless. the euro at this stage also enjoys significant support. Another portion of the macroeconomic statistics from the region has been quite positive. Thus, according to information received, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany amounted to 52.1 points, remaining the highest since January. A similar index for the euro area as a whole was also at the level of the previous values ​​and forecasts of analysts. At the same time the last block of economic statistics from the US was controversial and caused a wave of dollar sales. It was learned that in April, US personal spending rose at the fastest pace in nearly seven years, which, of course, is important, because the prospects for inflation depend on the increase in consumer spending. However, the players were disappointed by weak consumer confidence indicators and indicator of business activity in the zone of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. As a result, it is reflected in the revision of the expectations of the timing of the next increase of the interest rate the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the dollar and the growth rate of the single European currency recorded a new high yesterday at 1.1193 price level.


The euro dollar today forecast assume - the resumption of the upward movement of the pair and a further rise of the single European currency to the target levels: 1.1216; 1.1248; 1.1278 and 1.13.

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Forex. The outlook on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today

GBP / USD, for 1 hour.

Approximation of national referendum date has returned to market participants sensitivity to bad news from the UK. Recent survey results showed some increase in the number of EU countries ended output supporters.According to the survey, 45% of respondents chose the UK out of the EU, while 42% of respondents said they would vote for it to stay in the European Union. This number of votes increased the gap "bearish" pressure on the pair, whose rate resumed its decline and the Asian high 1.4506 tested on reducing new 3-week low at around 1.4384. Thus, a pair of course still remains dominated by social scientists, and soon his dynamics will almost completely determined by the results of surveys on the "Brekzita". The effect of the economic statistics, most likely, will depart on the 2nd plan.

Pound Dollar forecast for today, we assume - a reversal of the British currency to the upward movement and the rise of the pair to target levels: 1.4455; 1.4488; 1.4512; 1.4555 and above.

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Forex. The forecast rate of gold today

XAU \ USD, 4:00.

At yesterday's early trading, gold prices continued to rebound from the previous minimum levels this week. By the beginning of the European session, the price of gold reached $ 1220.30 per ounce, supported by published on the eve of the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity in the industrial sector of Chicago and economic consumer confidence. The data disappointed and the players according to market participants have reduced the likelihood of higher interest rates in June. Against this backdrop, gold has resumed growth, but the upward momentum proved unsustainable. The price of the metal dynamics changed dramatically after the special funds in gold was not informed of any new developments in the volume of deposits. This meant that in May inflow of deposits remained at the level of only 84 x tonnes, while in the previous month was marked by a significant inflow even against the price of gold to fall. As a result, metal prices have returned to the minimum level of last week - $ 1205.87 per ounce. Here, in the run-up to the ECB meeting on interest rates in the United States and the publication of the main report on employment, the players began to record profits and close positions for sale. Prices on this background correction turned on and finished trading at a price level $ 1213.44 per troy ounce.


Gold forecast for today : As of this morning near significant resistance for gold passes through the price level - $ 1217 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance when moving upward, the metal will continue to rise for the following purposes - $ 1225 and $ 1238 per ounce. Near term support for gold settled at a price level - $ 1209. If it is passed it will be possible to further decrease the metal target levels: $ 1206; $ 1200 and $ 1192 per troy ounce. Our forecast for Thursday suppose - the continuation of the corrective pullback and increased the value of gold to the target levels: $ 1219; $ 1223 and $ 1227 per troy ounce.

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Forex. The forecast for oil (WTI) for today.

OIL WTI, for 1 hour.

On the eve of yesterday's trading price of a barrel of the benchmark grade of oil «Brent» and «WTI» first visited highs near key levels of $ 51 and $ 50, respectively, and then retreated to the lower boundary of the weekly range in the area of ​​price levels of 49.50 $ and 48.70 $ per barrel . At yesterday's auction of oil prices decline continued. The volatility of price movement indicates nervousness of market participants on the eve of today's summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Members of the organization said yesterday the unexpected news that the summit will still be considered a collective limitation of oil production.The news of this dramatically changed the previous trend and led to a rapid increase in the cost of raw materials that return quotes to the closing prices of the previous day, on the levels of $ 49.67 and $ 48.84, respectively. At the same time, little-who expect any progress in the negotiations, because too large differences between the main parties to the cartel - Iran and Saudi Arabia, all of which confirms its intention to continue to fight for market share, the more that the cost of energy has now reached a much more attractive levels. Such an approach is likely lead to the opposite result - the new cheaper oil prices.

Of greater interest to market participants and represent today's data on reserves of hydrocarbons from the US Department of Energy. Yesterday's report of the American Petroleum Institute showed an increase of stocks at 2.35 million. Barrels. If today's report will also show an increase in stocks, oil futures resumed its decline.

Oil SRENT forecast for today, we assume - a short-term rise, and then the reversal of oil prices (Brent and WTI) to target levels - $ 48.50; $ 48.20; $ 48; $ 47.73 or less, in the direction of the key support level of $ 47 per barrel.

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