Forex. The forecast of the euro against the dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 16/05/2016
In the forex on Friday came good news from Germany. It is known to increase the country's GDP in the first quarter of 2016 by 0.7% compared with the previous period, and economists' forecasts. At the same time GDP growth rate in annual terms amounted to 1.6%, significantly higher than the growth of the 4th quarter of 2015. Positive indicators showed the economy and Italy. Here GDP growth the previous quarter was 0.3%.
Nevertheless, the euro has reacted very little to GDP growth in the euro zone, as investors gave a clear preference for buying the US currency. The dollar got support after the initial presentation on the eve 2 Fed Eric Rosengren and Esther George, usually takes the opposite position on monetary tightening. But this time their opinions almost agreed - if the Federal Reserve in the background of a strong labor market and rising inflation will delay a rise in borrowing costs in the US economy form "bubbles". This has led the market to believe in the probability of interest rate increase at the June or July meeting and the Fed caused the strengthening of the dollar across the spectrum currency market.
A second, equally strong driver for the dollar in the United States was the publication of the report on retail sales. The data showed that in April retail sales rose 1.3% vs. + 0.8% and a decline in the previous month by 0.4%.
Thus, the report demonstrated the stability of the consumer sector in the US and became another factor in the possible increase of the interest rate the Fed. Immediately after the release of the report EUR \ USD strengthened drop by testing the key support level of 1.13, and closed the week at a price level 1.1305.
The euro / dollar forecast for today, we assume - the completion of the current corrective pullback in the price zone of 1.1323 ÷ 1.1346; then the resumption of the depreciation of the single European currency to the following target levels: 1.1282; 1.1248; 1.1216.
Forex. Forecast exchange rate pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 05/16/2016
Briton in the foreign exchange market on Friday was again under pressure from the dollar after the release of a weak report on the volume of construction in England and strong data on retail sales in the United States.
In addition, another factor of pressure on the pound was a decrease on the eve of the Bank of England's forecasts for growth in the British economy for 2016-2017. Pound already recently could not boast of a confident positive dynamics, and now, as we approach the referendum, the output of negative economic statistics even more intensified investors' concerns about the prospects of the British economy and British currency.
Against this background, GBP / USD continued its previous decline and at the end of trading tested the new 3-week low 1.4339, which is close and ended the session.
Pound Dollar forecast for today assume - a corrective pullback in the pair price zone 1.4380 ÷ 1.4410, and then turn and a further decline of the pair to target levels: 1.4338; 1.43; 1.4280.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold to date 16/05/2016
Quotes yellow metal on Friday remained under pressure, volatility trading in a narrow sideways range. The growth of gold greenbacks held by active movement.
Although market uncertainty regarding the immediate prospects for the dollar, the euro and the pound, and the instability of the global economy boosted demand for safe-haven assets, which allowed precious metal buyers to raise the price from the previous minimum of 1261.60 $ and gain a foothold in the top of the range on the price level 1272.78 $ per troy ounce.
As of this morning near significant resistance for gold is on the price level of $ 1278 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance as you move up the metal will continue to rise to the following purposes: 1280 $ 1287 $ and 1292 $ per ounce.
Immediate support for gold is located at $ 1272 weekly reversal ounce. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease the metal to the price levels of $ 1268, $ 1265 and $ 1261 per troy ounce.
Gold forecast for today alleged attempt to "bulls" in gold on the rise test strong resistance level of $ 1278 an ounce, extending through the 233-day moving average, hour timeframe.
Further forward rotation and reduce the value of gold to the above targeted levels of support.
New Zealand will release the April index of business activity in the services sector.
Japan will report on the April change in orders for equipment.
UK publishes May's house price index.
In Canada, there are data changes in sales of housing on the secondary real estate market. The Bank of Canada publishes the semi-annual economic review.
And in the US manufacturing index Empire Manufacturing will be released in May, and the volume of purchases of long-term US securities by foreign investors.
In Germany, France and Switzerland holiday - the Day of the Holy Spirit. Regional markets closed, the statistics will not be published.
For more information on the movement of currency in the market, please visit "MaxiMarkets.ru" under "Research".
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