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Forex forecast for today 05/10/2015: The market does not believe in the imminent increase in interest rates the Fed!
Forex. The forecast of the euro / dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 05.10.2010
US employment data, published in the course of the trading session on Friday, were much worse than expected. The US economy created in September, 142,000 jobs, while economists had forecast an average increase of 201,000jobs.
Thus the August index, contrary to the expectations of many experts has been revised downwards from 173 000 to 136 000. Disappointed traders and dynamics of the average hourly wage. The index remained unchanged from the previous month (0.0%), while economists had expected an increase in wages of 0.2% compared with August. Also declined and the average workweek. A share of the population in the labor force has fallen to the lowest level since October 1977. It is not surprising that in response to such statistics course of the dollar plummeted to a 2-week low, and quotes the European currency broke through on the rise key resistance level of 1.12 and 1.13, fixing the maximum increase in the price level of 1.1318.
The mood in the market was also sharply changed. The findings led Forex traders to revise their expectations of maturity Fed raising interest rates. Now, this is not expected before March 2016.
The euro dollar today expect short-term growth rate of the euro, and then the resumption of the euro dollar decrease in quotations in the following price levels: 1.1185, 1.1150, 1.1130, 1.11, and possibly to 1.1070.
Forex. Forecast pound / dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 05/10/2015
GBP / USD, for 1 hour.
The September index of business activity in the construction sector, published in the UK on the last day of the trading week, rose to a seven-month high 59.9, exceeding the revised upward the figure for the previous month (57.3), as well as analysts' expectations (57.5). The data for September showed that the UK construction sector is still experiencing the most intensive growth cycle. The data driver began turning the British currency from its previous decline. Additional support for the "bulls" on the pound has had a sharp weakening of the dollar after the release of negative US labor market statistics. In addition, technical factors and the inability of the "bears" to break below the key resistance level of 1.51 also helped to increase the upward momentum, which under the influence of the pair GBP / USD recovered to 1.5236 levels. In the course of further trading the pound began adjusted and finished the afternoon session in the 1.5172 price level.
Pound dollar today expect a short-term decline in the pound dollar correction, then the growth of sterling to the following target levels: 1.52,1.5230, 1.5268 and 1.53.
We continue to monitor as the previous local low 1.5070. If the sellers of the British currency will be able to overcome the resistance of the "bulls" on the price level, while the downward correction to continue to the key support level of 1.50 and 1.49. There are expecting a new turn and lift the pair to the above price levels.
Forex. The forecast rate of gold and silver as of today 05/10/2015
XAU / USD, 4:00.
Trading on Friday ended the soaring gold because the weak labor market data in the US reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve once again postpone the start of the cycle of monetary tightening.
Furthermore, an additional supporting factor for gold was the message of the People's Bank of China in August, an increase of stocks of the precious metal. Against this backdrop, December gold futures rose by the end of the day from the minimum daily level of $ 1104.54 to $ 36.68, ending five consecutive sessions lasting decline.A slight correction in prices before closing the session virtually changed the levels achieved by fixing the value of the metal at the level of $ 1138.74 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for gold held by the level of the previous local maximum - $ 1141 per ounce. The breakdown of this resistance will continue the upward rise of the metal to the following price levels - $ 1147 and $ 1157 per ounce. Immediate support for gold is located in the $ 1132 price level. If it is passed, then it becomes possible to further decrease in metal price levels in 1128 and $ 1117 $ an ounce.
Gold rate today suggest corrective pullback quotations of gold from the previous maximum and reducing the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
Under the influence of the same factors, as well as due to a sharp increase in US sales of silver coins, exceeding all the historical records (14.26 million silver coins «American Eagle»), the rising cost of the December silver futures showed the most significant day jump since April this year. Metal prices rose in the day at 92 cents, reaching $ 15.30 per troy ounce.
As of this morning near term resistance for silver is located at the level of the previous maximum of $ 15.30. If resumed the upward movement - and this resistance is broken, then the metal will rise to the following objectives - $ 15.40, $ 15.48 and $ 15.65 per ounce. Immediate support for the silver price level passes through $ 15.05 per ounce. If quotes overcome it - will continue to decline in the level of weekly and daily reversal of $ 15.97 and below the levels of $ 14.75 and $ 14.55 per ounce.
Silver forecast for today also expect corrective retracement of silver from its previous high and reducing the cost of the metal to the above targeted levels of support.
China celebrates the Day of the Republic. Markets are closed, the statistics are not published.
The unit of economic statistics should pay attention to the publication in the United States, Japan, Australia, the UK and the euro area, including the major economies of the region - Germany, France, Italy and Spain indexes of business activity for the services sector, as well as composite indexes , including the combined figures for both sectors.
In addition, interest will attract and publication in the euro area data in retail sales in August, while in the US - the composite ISM index and employment index for non-manufacturing sector.
Australia will publish the index of business activity in the services sector; inflation data, as well as the index of the number of vacancies in the labor market in September.
Japan is to publish changes in the level of wages and real incomes in August.
The euro zone will present a leading indicator of economic confidence of investors in October, and the European Central Bank will announce the weekly purchases of securities.
In statistics the United States will be represented in the terms of the labor market and employment trends for September.
Also today, will open the meeting of EU finance ministers, and will be the speech European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
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